Playing it safe can make you sorry
The decision not to go for it on fourth and 1 from the Philadelphia 41 with about two minutes left and his Packers leading, 17-14, obviously was agonizing for Packers coach Mike Sherman. He was pacing the sideline, talking into his headset. This decision was not going to be as easy as it looked to millions of viewers across America.
After all, in the first half of Sunday's playoff game, Sherman allowed his offense to go for it on fourth and goal, but Ahman Green was stuffed at the 1-yard line, tripping over lineman Mike Wahle's leg.
Sherman claims the outcome of the first call had nothing to do with the second call, but will we ever know?
Suffice to say, it appears that coaches who show the most confidence in their teams' ability to get the job done in crunch time are the ones who likely will go deep into the playoffs. Former Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson said as much on a network TV show last weekend. And he's right.
Sherman certainly had the best of intentions. He would have punter Josh Bidwell knock one inside the 20, making it difficult for Donovan McNabb to get the Eagles in position for a tying field goal. But Bidwell didn't boot it inside the 20. And the Packers amazingly suffered a fourth-down meltdown on defense, allowing a 28-yard gain from McNabb to Freddie Mitchell on fourth and 26. Fourth and bloody 26? Well, we know, as Paul Harvey would say, the rest of the story. The Eagles tied it with a field goal at the end of regulation. And when a poorly thrown Brett Favre pass was intercepted in overtime, it set up David Akers's winning field goal -- and the woulda, shoulda, coulda talk was at its height all over America.
The fourth-down call was a head-scratching decision by Sherman because while Green had been stuffed earlier in the game, the Eagles' defense seemed to be wearing down. The Packers had the Eagles on the ropes. Instead of going in for the knockout, the opponent on wobbly legs, the Packers were like a boxer retreating and just trying to get the decision.
Sherman thought it was the safe move. His players backed him after the game.
That brings us to St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz.
Yes, we know Martz is an offensive genius, but there are times when the "I" and the "Q" have a little too much space between them. The Rams had pulled off a mini-miracle by recovering an onside kick late in regulation after drawing within 3 of the Panthers, 23-20. The Rams were able to move the ball again, down to the 15. It was first and 10, with 37 seconds left, and Martz let the clock run some 30 seconds before sending in Jeff Wilkins for a tying 33-yard field goal. Certainly there was time for another play or two to take a shot at a touchdown and the win. But Martz played it safe.
Safe got him a double-overtime loss and a roomful of players who were left to defend him while they were cleaning out their lockers in St. Louis.
Was Martz revisiting the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots? Did he agree with commentator John Madden's assessment that, with the game tied, the Patriots should take a knee and send the game into overtime, rather than try to win it in regulation?
Conversely, consider Andy Reid's overtime coaching for Philadelphia. McNabb is trying to get into the best possible field goal range for Akers. He's throwing passes into the end zone, one of which came perilously close to getting picked off. Risky, sure. But Reid showed confidence in McNabb, who got the Eagles close enough for Akers's winning 31-yard field goal.
You also didn't see that "safe" stuff from Bill Belichick against the Titans. On a fourth and 3 late in the game, with the game tied, 14-14, Tom Brady hit Troy Brown on a tough sideline pattern for a first down at the Titans 29.
Going for it on fourth down likely will be a big issue in the Final Four this weekend.
Based on regular-season statistics, the best of the remaining four teams on fourth down is Indianapolis, which converted 64.7 percent of attempts (11 of 17), which was second best in the league. The Panthers aren't bad, either, at 54.5 percent (6 for 11). The Patriots converted 42.9 percent (6 for 14), as did the Eagles (3 for 7). In the playoffs, the Colts are 0 for 2, the Patriots 2 for 3, the Eagles 2 for 2, and the Panthers 0 for 0.
"You have to play with your gut in the playoffs," said one AFC head coach yesterday. "Maybe your gut says, `Go for it,' but your head says, `Play it safe.' You've got to go for it. Playing it safe or by the book is maybe something you do in the regular season, but by this point you've worked over scenarios a hundred or a thousand times in your head. You say to yourself, `If I'm in this situation, I'm going to do this.'
"I say be aggressive. Make a decision based on the confidence you have in whatever unit is on the field. That confidence will usually work in your favor. If it doesn't, you're going to take the blame anyway. Might as well go down making an aggressive decision rather than a passive one."
The coach, who is not in the playoffs, said of Martz's decision, "I didn't understand it, because that offense was moving the football. You had the Panthers on their heels." On the Sherman decision, he said, "That one is a little more understandable. You've got the lead, you punt deep into their territory and you hold them. That's showing confidence in your defense. It didn't work out for Mike and I'm sure he's beating himself up. But that one I understand more than the other.
"If you're good enough to get to this point in the season, you should be good enough to pull off tough plays, big plays to help your team win. If you're at this stage of the game, it means you've made a lot of right decisions all along. You have to trust yourself. You have to trust your team."
