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Down the stretch they come ...

... and they're headed for home (or playoffs)

By Mike Reiss
Globe Staff / December 7, 2008
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Assessing the NFL entering Week 14 is like looking at a busted play - things are headed in a variety of directions, and sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't.

Some teams are already looking to the future, drawing up plans to hire a new coach and possibly a new general manager. Others are playoff-bound and simply tuning up, while some are still grasping at long-shot playoff hopes.

As the picture comes into focus, as many as 10 teams could be looking at coaching changes. Meanwhile, as has been the case in recent years, it's looking like at least half the playoff field from the previous season won't be back in the postseason this year, which is just the way the NFL likes it.

With so many different things happening at what often feels like a breakneck pace, it helps to step back and see the complete picture with a team-by-team snapshot:

AFC EAST

Jets (8-4): Remember the debates about the merits of trading for Brett Favre? Credit to general manager Mike Tannenbaum, the local guy who wanted to become a general manager in part because of his admiration for Red Auerbach, for the bold short-term move.

Patriots (7-5): Losing a starting quarterback and reigning MVP on the 15th play of the season and still qualifying for the playoffs would be a tip-of-the-cap accomplishment. The top offseason priority will be addressing the defense.

Dolphins (7-5): Tony Sparano, the former Boston University assistant (remember when it had football?), is a top Coach of the Year candidate. Still, one wonders whether they'll regret passing on Matt Ryan at the top of the draft.

Bills (6-6): So much for those early-season stories about Trent Edwards as the next Jim Kelly. Edwards still might emerge, but like the Bills, he has tailed off considerably (8 INTs in his last six games).

AFC NORTH

Steelers (9-3): They seem to produce impressive linebackers annually, with James Harrison (14 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (11 1/2 sacks) leading a ferocious defense. Unlike the banged-up, plodding team in the 2007 playoffs, the Steelers are coming on at the right time.

Ravens (8-4): John Harbaugh (Coach of the Year?) has established a strong culture of accountability in a tough locker room, while relying on a familiar formula: strong defense, ball control, and ball security (plus-7 turnover differential).

Browns (4-8): Coach Romeo Crennel is likely to be fired, and general manager Phil Savage could go or at least be stripped of some power. After an offseason binge, the Browns are the latest reminder that throwing money at a problem doesn't always solve it.

Bengals (1-10-1): In an interview with the Cincinnati Enquirer last week, Mike Brown didn't sound like an owner ready to fire coach Marvin Lewis.

AFC SOUTH

Titans (11-1): Who saw this coming? Nothing flashy, but their plus-13 turnover differential is the best in the NFL. An interesting offseason decision looms with quarterbacks Kerry Collins (free agent) and once-promising Vince Young.

Colts (8-4): They started 3-4 but easily could have been 1-6 if not for two improbable fourth-quarter comebacks. No one remembers that now, as Peyton Manning has willed the team into contention, and himself into the MVP race.

Texans (5-7): Three years later, the final judgment is in: The Texans made the right decision selecting defensive end Mario Williams (11 sacks) over running back Reggie Bush with the top pick. Rookie running back Steve Slaton, in fact, looks better than Bush.

Jaguars (4-8): Veteran running back Fred Taylor recently said he'd never been on a worse team, chemistry-wise. Coach Jack Del Rio could go, although owner Wayne Weaver will be reluctant to eat the remaining millions on his contract.

AFC WEST

Broncos (7-5): After the Patriots ran through them for 257 yards Oct. 20, the Broncos altered their routine, ditched the 3-4 alignment, and began practicing in full pads twice a week. The results have improved enough to keep them atop one of the NFL's worst divisions.

Chargers (5-8): General manager A.J. Smith told the San Diego Union-Tribune last week that coach Norv Turner will be back for a third season. Smith pointed the finger at himself, saying his talent evaluation needs to be better.

Raiders (3-10): Some things are simply beyond explanation. While they figure to have a new coach - Tom Cable is currently serving as interim sideline boss - it will be the same circus under owner Al Davis.

Chiefs (2-10): The locals are running out of patience with coach Herm Edwards and general manager Carl Peterson, who might be spared only by those April press clippings touting their strong draft class and plan for the future.

NFC EAST

Giants (11-1): There was a time when some were questioning whether their Super Bowl run was a fluke, but no longer. Their dominant defense rightly gets the attention, but they also take care of the football (NFL-low 10 turnovers) better than any club.

Cowboys (8-4): As Tony Romo goes, so go the Cowboys. His return from injury has sparked a three-game winning streak, but there is iron on the schedule: at the Steelers, home against the Giants and Ravens, and a road finale against the Eagles.

Redskins (7-5): With losses in three of their last four following a surprising 6-2 start, their playoff hopes hinge on tonight's crucial game at Baltimore. The offense has stalled, with just four touchdowns in the last four games.

Eagles (6-5-1): They've been one of the NFL's most disappointing clubs in a season highlighted by quarterback Donovan McNabb's admission that he didn't know games could end in a tie. If the Eagles win out, ironically, that tie could help their slim playoff hopes.

NFC NORTH

Vikings (7-5): Compelling situation as they look to hold on to the top spot: Can the legs of stud Adrian Peterson (NFL-high 1,311 rushing yards) help offset the four-game suspensions of Pro Bowl tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams for violating the policy on steroids and related substances? The Williamses currently have a temporary restraining order blocking the suspensions.

Bears (6-6): Monsters of the Midway they are not. The questions entering the season centered on the offense, but it has been the defense (29th against the pass) hurting them as much, if not more. The rest of the NFL has also caught up to dangerous return man Devin Hester (0 TDs).

Packers (5-7): Aaron Rodgers (20 TDs, 10 INTs) hasn't wilted in the difficult circumstance of following Favre, but a defense surrendering 4.8 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) has been the primary Achilles' heel.

Lions (0-12): Coach Rod Marinelli won't be back, but the bigger question is whether the Lions bring in a much-needed football evaluator (Scott Pioli?) to upgrade the talent-barren roster. To avoid the first winless NFL season since the '76 Buccaneers, they'll have to beat either the Vikings or Saints at home, or the Colts or Packers on the road.

NFC SOUTH

Panthers (9-3): They fly under the radar mainly because they're not flashy - running the ball well (4.4-yard average; sixth in the NFL) and playing good defense (Julius Peppers has 11 sacks). They have a chance to emerge on the national stage tomorrow night against visiting Tampa Bay.

Buccaneers (9-3): As has been their modus operandi, the Buccaneers are ferocious on defense, ranking in the top 10 in almost every category. Coordinator Monte Kiffin, however, appears headed to the University of Tennessee to join his son, new Volunteers coach Lane Kiffin, after the season.

Falcons (8-4): How cool has Matt Ryan been in his rookie season? Opponents have blitzed him 91 times, and he has completed 56 passes for 729 yards and three touchdowns against the blitz, helping spark one of the NFL's surprise teams.

Saints (6-6): They were thinking big at the start of the season, having acquired tight end Jeremy Shockey and linebacker Jonathan Vilma by sacrificing draft picks, but they've once again been hurt by defensive problems to qualify as one of the NFL's most disappointing clubs.

NFC WEST

Cardinals (7-5): Possessing one of the NFL's most explosive passing offenses and clearly headed in the right direction overall, the Cardinals aren't yet ready to join the elite. Like the Titans, they face an interesting offseason decision at quarterback with a veteran (Kurt Warner) and once-promising youngster (Matt Leinart).

49ers (4-8): One of three teams to make an in-season change at coach, they'll consider whether Mike Singletary returns on a permanent basis. What they need more than anything is a program in which everyone is on the same page, similar to what the Dolphins did this past offseason.

Rams (2-10): Jim Haslett took over as interim coach after four weeks, and at the time, the thought was that if the Rams won six games he'd be back. That hasn't happened. The Rams' situation is similar to the 49ers' in that a comprehensive program is needed.

Seahawks (2-10): This wasn't the way coach Mike Holmgren wanted to go out. After announcing prior to the season that it would be his last in Seattle, Holmgren has presided over a club that has imploded. Injuries haven't helped, but that's a convenient excuse for a team that has given up more passing yards per game than any other club.

Etc.
They rest their case
A few extra days of rest have meant a lot this season, as teams that have played on Thursday night are 7-1 the following week. The stat doesn't bode well for the Patriots, who are in the middle of a three-game stretch of facing opponents with 10 days to prepare (Steelers, Seahawks, Raiders). Then again, the numbers could skew considerably today, as six teams are in action after playing on Thanksgiving. One additional rest-related stat: Teams coming off bye weeks are 18-13-1.

This doesn't speak well of him
As the Titans roll on, quarterback Vince Young continues to show signs of immaturity behind the scenes. After playing on Thanksgiving for the first time since the opening weekend, Young blew off local reporters but did make time for a brief national radio interview. Young told the local reporters he'd speak to them the following Monday but never showed up. While the Titans are paying Young to play, not talk to reporters, the lack of overall leadership could be a factor in the team's decision-making this offseason as veteran Kerry Collins - who is 10-1 as a starter - is a free agent.

Right back at it
Short weeks haven't been much of an issue this season. While players and coaches often talk about the grind of playing a Sunday game after appearing in a Monday night game, teams are a healthy 17-7 in those situations.

Triple effect
How impressive has the Steelers' defense been? Through Week 13, they lead the NFL in total defense, rush defense, and pass defense. If that holds, they'll become the first team since the 1991 Eagles to rank first in all three. The Steelers are allowing 3.88 yards per play, which would rank as the fewest since the 16-game schedule was adopted in 1978.

Cowboys are dragging
Dallas hasn't won a playoff game since 1996, and a primary reason is late-season sluggishness. Since 1997, the Cowboys have not posted a record better than .500 in December and January; they are 18-36 overall, including five playoff losses. If the Cowboys break that trend this year, they'll have earned it, as they have as tough a finishing stretch as anyone in the NFL (Steelers, Giants, Ravens, Eagles).

Trouble at home
Bad-weather games helped even the playing field last week, as road teams went 12-4. But that's not a one-week deal. On the season, AFC teams are just 46-50-1 at home. So much for home-field advantage.

Blue streak
No one puts together winning streaks on a consistent basis like the Colts. Winners of five straight heading into today's game against the lowly Bengals, the Colts are on the cusp of a six-game winning streak for what would be the fifth consecutive season. The 49ers (1989-95) are the only other team in NFL history to accomplish that feat.

First-rate protection
Drafting an offensive lineman in the first round doesn't always get the local fan base charged up, but the Broncos are a good example of the positive impact it can have. Denver selected Boise State's Ryan Clady in the first round (No. 12 overall), inserted him at left tackle, and he's helped solidify an offensive line that has protected quarterback Jay Cutler exceptionally well. The Broncos have surrendered just eight sacks in 461 pass plays. Since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, only two teams have posted a better sack-per-dropback ratio.

Still waiting ...
The Redskins drew praise on draft day for trading out of the first round, acquiring two second-round picks in the process. For a team that has traditionally gone for the big splash in free agency, it was considered a sign of restraint and good personnel acumen. Yet to this point, there hasn't been much return on the investment. The Redskins drafted tight end Fred Davis and receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, and the trio has combined for just 15 catches and one touchdown.

Did you know?
The Buccaneers and Panthers face off in a battle of NFC South leaders tomorrow night, which marks the first time in "Monday Night Football" history that two 9-3 teams square off. There have been only five other times in history when teams tied for first place, with a winning percentage of .750, have played each other this late in the season.

Mike Reiss can be reached at mreiss@globe.com; material from personal interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.

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