Coaches have 'wild' thoughts

Insight provided as playoffs kick off

While football headlines this week seem to be dominated by the twists and turns of head coaching and general manager searches, it's almost easy to forget there are playoff games to be played.

Atlanta-Arizona and Indianapolis-San Diego kick off today, while tomorrow features Baltimore-Miami and Philadelphia-Minnesota.

Three NFL coaches help break down the action, sharing some of their insights as to what they will be looking for in each game.

"As a coach, the thing you look for is how does one team react to the other team's strengths, and how do they try to attack or balance the other team's strengths," said Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski. "For example, when you're facing that Baltimore defense, one of the first things you need to look at is, how are you going to handle their pressures?"

The pressure will intensify for all eight teams in action this weekend, and here are some thoughts from three NFL coaches:

Falcons at Cardinals

The Falcons have won seven of their last nine games, while the Cardinals have lost four of six. The teams did not meet this season.

The matchup features a contrast in styles, as the Falcons are a grind-it-out offense, ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (152.7). With Michael Turner (17 touchdowns) leading the way, they are one of the few teams that ran more than it passed.

The Cardinals' attack is air-based, with receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston all topping the 1,000-yard mark. No team was more skewed to the pass than Arizona.

"The Cardinals can get it going offensively, but defensively they leave a lot to be desired," said one coach, who requested anonymity so he could share his feelings. "I think this will really come down to how well Atlanta can stop them. From what I've seen, Arizona is going to have trouble stopping Atlanta, or anybody for that matter. If Atlanta can play good defense against Arizona, and keep the score down and keep the game under control, I think they'll have a good chance."

The Falcons' defense, however, has struggled at times. It ranks 28th in rushing average, with opponents gaining a whopping 4.9 yards per carry. But that is an area the Cardinals are unlikely to expose with traditional handoffs - their short passing game serves as a running game, of sorts - as they ranked 31st in rushing average (3.5 yards per carry). Perhaps thinking it will alter those results, the Cardinals are considering utilizing veteran running back Edgerrin James more than rookie Tim Hightower today.

Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense ranked 21st in passing yards allowed per game (220.4), and that figures to be the defining matchup. Arizona averaged 292 passing yards per game, second in the NFL.

One other factor to consider: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is making his first playoff start.

"You probably don't want to put a whole lot on him," the coach said. "Try to win with defense, the running game, and special teams."

Colts at Chargers

The Colts have won nine in a row, the Chargers four straight. The teams met Nov. 23 in San Diego, with the Colts winning, 23-20.

From a tactical standpoint, any matchup involving the Colts starts with how to defend their offense.

"San Diego is a 3-4 defense, but when we played them we went to the spread and it got them into a nickel defense [five defensive backs], which is probably the way it will go against Indianapolis," said Chiefs offensive line coach Bob Bicknell.

"So the question will be if they have the pass rusher and nickel back to slow down Peyton [Manning]. I spend a lot of time watching Indianapolis because that offense is excellent, spreading people out and playing in space. Both teams are hot, and I'll be interested to see how they match up."

Third-down performance also figures to be telling. No offense is better than the Colts on third down, as they led the league in converting 50.2 percent of the time (101 of 201). The Chargers' defense ranked 20th on third down (40.6 percent).

On the flip side, the Colts' defense ranked 31st on third down, while the Chargers' offense was fourth.

In terms of style, the Colts often dare opponents to throw.

"They play a lot of eight-man front to try to stop the run game," Bratkowski said. "At times that can leave their corners exposed. If you can't run against the eight-man front, you have to show that you can make the throws."

Even if the Chargers make those throws, the third coach we talked with wondered if it will be enough to win.

"It's a good matchup, and I think the Colts can control the game offensively, like they usually do," he said. "I don't see San Diego being very adept at stopping them. I'm sure San Diego will try to control the game like they normally do, with their ground game and play-action shots, so that will be interesting.

"San Diego is probably playing their best football, so it's no gimme, but Indianapolis has a lot of things going for them. San Diego had to play to win [last Sunday] to get in, which might be a little advantage for [the Colts]. I wouldn't be surprised to see Indianapolis in the [AFC] Championship game."

Baltimore at Miami

Both teams have won five of their last six. This is Baltimore's second trip to Miami this season - the Ravens trounced the Dolphins, 27-13, Oct. 19.

Turnovers should be a primary indicator as to which team wins. The Dolphins had an NFL-low 13, while the Ravens forced an NFL-high 34.

The Ravens seem to feed off their pass rush.

"They probably pressure as much as anyone, and a lot of them wind up trying to be confusing pressures, from different locations than you're used to seeing them," Bratkowski said. "Sometimes they create with only a five-man rush, but you're not expecting two of those five who came to be rushers, or they're coming from different locations."

As for Miami, Bicknell sees a team that has maximized its strengths, finding what it does well (e.g. running the ball) and sticking with it. The Wildcat package - in which quarterback Chad Pennington splits out wide and running back Ronnie Brown takes a direct snap - must be a consideration for any opponent.

"You study them and they were exceptional running it, doing a good job of mixing it up - one time they'll give it to a back, the next time they won't, they're excellent with motions, and just finding ways to move the football," Bicknell said. "Overall, they probably don't feel like they're there yet for what they'd ultimately like to do, but they got into something and made it work for them."

The third coach we spoke with believes the Ravens are superior.

"It wasn't much of a game the first time they played, and I really don't think Miami is a very good football team," he said. "They're just OK, not very good on defense, they really struggled in special teams. I think they benefited from some weaker opponents. I just think the Ravens, overall, are a better defensive football team."

Eagles at Vikings

One of the noticeable contrasts is their defensive approach. The Vikings are tough to run on - they surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game (76.9) this season - while the Eagles are defined more by how they disrupt the passing game.

Bratkowski recalled preparing to face the Eagles in a Nov. 16 game that ended in a 13-13 tie.

"They have good pass rushers," he said, "so I think the question you ask yourself is, can you run the ball effectively on them, to get to a point where maybe the pressures aren't as effective. If they get you into tough third-down situations, it makes it harder to block the pressures and convert." The Eagles ranked fourth in points allowed per game (18.1), so the approach suits them well. They're also tough against the run, ranking fourth in average yards per rush (3.5).

That last stat figures to loom large, as the Vikings' offense is fueled by NFL leading rusher Adrian Peterson (1,760 yards, 10 TDs).

"If Minnesota catches a guy against one of those pressures, with someone in the wrong gap, it could produce some very long runs," Bratkowski said.

Overall, though, the third coach we spoke with believes the Eagles are superior defensively.

"They can rush the passer, stop the run, cover, and force a lot of bad plays, which I think will be hard for Minnesota to handle," he said. "Assuming they just don't give the game away, I think Philadelphia is the better team, and I think they have a chance to go far this year."

Mike Reiss can be reached at mreiss@globe.com.