Mock draft and team-by-team analysis
Predictions for today's first round
1. Detroit
Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
In an interview with a Detroit sports radio station last week, Stafford said he planned to trade in his Chevy Tahoe for a Ford. Smart kid. The Ford family handed Stafford the keys to a franchise that has had one Pro Bowl quarterback in the last 51 years (Greg Landry, 1971). Stafford agreed to a six-year deal last night, according to a person familiar with negotiations. Not all teams were enamored with Stafford, but with first-year offensive coordinator Scott Linehan looking to get the ball downfield, he fits their system.
Top needs: QB, DL, LB
2. St. Louis
Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Like most teams in the top 10, the Rams would prefer to trade down because of the exorbitant cost of signing the pick, and hope a team such as the Redskins might mortgage future picks to come up for quarterback Mark Sanchez. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur spent the last 10 seasons with the Eagles and figures to bring elements of their West Coast system to St. Louis. The first challenge is protecting quarterback Marc Bulger, and there's an Orlando Pace-sized void at left tackle. Multiple scouts expressed concern with not seeing enough of Smith firing off the ball out of a three-point stance as a run blocker, but he is considered one of the draft's better pass protectors.
Top needs: OT, WR, LB
3. Kansas City
Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State
First-year GM Scott Pioli already has one pick on the board (QB Matt Cassel obtained from the Patriots for a second-rounder), and his pressing concern has to be finding the right parts for a conversion to a hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense. Jackson isn't this high on every team's board, but he fits uniquely into that type of scheme. All it takes is one look at free agency every year to see where the big money is spent, so if Pioli is saddled with the financial burden of the pick, he can feel good about investing in a big, strong defensive lineman. The best scenario for Pioli, however, would be a team such as the Redskins trading up to this spot for QB Mark Sanchez.
Top needs: RT, NT, DE
4. Seattle
Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Although injuries ravaged the Seahawks' offense last season, not to be overlooked is that they finished with the NFL's worst pass defense. So, although general manager Tim Ruskell might be enticed to roll the dice on quarterback Mark Sanchez as a down-the-road replacement for Matt Hasselbeck, or Jason Smith or Andre Smith as a future replacement for offensive tackle Walter Jones, the defense remains a more immediate concern. The Seahawks will run a 4-3 scheme under new coordinator Casey Bradley and have a void after trading Julian Peterson to the Lions.
Top needs: LB, LT, QB
5. Cleveland
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
In the rough-and-tumble AFC North, it is paramount to be powerful at the line of scrimmage and stop the run (Cleveland was 25th out of 32 teams in that category last season). The Browns have more pressing needs - defensive back Malcolm Jenkins would alleviate concerns on the back end of the defense and Andre Smith would be a powerful bookend tackle opposite Joe Thomas - but Raji is the type of nose tackle for teams running a 3-4 scheme who doesn't come around often. He also could form an impenetrable tackle tandem with Shaun Rogers in a four-man front.
Top needs: RT, OLB, DB
6. Cincinnati
Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Bengals surrendered 51 sacks last season, their highest total in eight years, and left tackle Levi Jones is an injury question mark, and right tackle Stacy Andrews departed in free agency. When you're playing in the AFC North with edge rushers such as James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Kamerion Wimbley, Terrell Suggs, and Jarret Johnson, it is football suicide to not have a solid left tackle. Smith could be the cornerstone of the line for years. Some teams have Smith rated as the best tackle, while others have dropped him lower for the way he handled the predraft process, specifically showing up to the combine out of shape, and then leaving before working out, without informing anyone.
Top needs: OT, C, WR
7. Oakland
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders finished last in passing yards per game last season. If the No. 1 overall pick of the 2007 draft is going to have a chance to develop into a franchise cornerstone, he needs more weapons outside the hash marks. Although Crabtree isn't the type of burner who necessarily fits the Raiders' size/speed profile, his style of play would complement speedster Johnnie Lee Higgins on the opposite side of the field and suddenly make the Raiders - assuming their free agent additions help on the offensive line - much harder to defend. If the Raiders go with a pure speed option at receiver, it would be Jeremy Maclin or Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Top needs: WR, OT, DL
8. Jacksonville
Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
This is a realistic spot to expect some action from teams looking to trade up for quarterback Mark Sanchez, if he's available. General manager Gene Smith and his top aide, Terry McDonough, call the shots for the first time and they have plenty of holes to fill, starting at left tackle, as Khalif Barnes departed in free agency. Monroe is considered ready to step in from Day 1 and lock down the left side.
Top needs: WR, DL, OL
9. Green Bay
Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State
First-year defensive coordinator Dom Capers is implementing a 3-4 scheme, so a big part of what's happening in Green Bay is determining how players fit in new roles, and that figures to lead to some changes in the front seven. But the Packers also are aging on the back end of the defense, and Jenkins could contribute immediately at safety and possibly move to cornerback when Charles Woodson (32) and Al Harris (34) reach the end of the line. The Packers, who have traded down 13 times in general manager Ted Thompson's first four drafts, could also scoop up an offensive tackle if one slides, or running back Chris "Beanie" Wells.
Top needs: DL, LB, OT, RB
10. San Francisco
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
Coach Mike Singletary wants to play old school, and that means controlling the line of scrimmage with a consistent running game to complement an aggressive defense. The 49ers will likely be deciding between a pass rusher and an offensive tackle, two of the deepest positions in the draft. If they think Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo could make the transition from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker, he'd be the pick. But that's a risky projection, especially when the opportunity is there to solidify a bookend spot on the offensive line with one of the draft's most athletic big men.
Top needs: OT, DE/OLB, QB
11. Buffalo
Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
The Bills run a Tampa-2 defensive scheme, which calls for lighter, penetrating ends to harass quarterbacks. When healthy, Aaron Schobel is especially effective in that role - just ask Tom Brady - but it's the opposite side that needs to be addressed, as opponents have too easily been allowed to lock in on Schobel and not face repercussions. The Bills could lean toward a more traditional 4-3 left defensive end such as Robert Ayers of Tennessee, but Orakpo's first-step quickness would seemingly be tough to pass up as he'd be a natural fit for the scheme.
Top needs: OT, DE, TE
12. Denver
Robert Ayers, DE/OLB, Tennessee
When the Patriots trampled the Broncos last season, they did so with compact formations and simply overpowered them with a hard-charging running game. The architect of that plan was Josh McDaniels, and now that he's Denver's head coach, his first order of business is to find big, strong players so his team can be competitive at the line of scrimmage in a 3-4 defense. The 6-foot-3-inch, 272-pound Ayers played defensive end in college and would likely fit at outside linebacker in Denver's scheme, while his versatility - a buzzword McDaniels knows well from his time in New England - would give the Broncos a chance to get creative in specific situations.
Top needs: DL, LB, DB
13. Washington
Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal
No team changes direction like the Redskins. One year they say they're building through the draft, the next year they're spending big in free agency. One year they trade picks to land a supposed franchise quarterback in Jason Campbell, and a few years later they're apparently smitten with replacing him with another first-round signal-caller. It's debatable whether Sanchez will fall this far, so if the Redskins truly want him, they might have to trade up and fend off competition from others, such as the Jets. If things fall through with Sanchez, they would likely look for pass rush and offensive line help.
Top needs: DE, OLB, RT
14. New Orleans
Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State
As explosive as the Saints were last season, they were hurt by the inability to move the chains in short-yardage situations. A pairing of Wells and Reggie Bush - with Pierre Thomas a third option - would seemingly address that deficiency and make an already potent offense more lethal. It will be interesting to see if their plans potentially are altered by the rival Falcons acquiring tight end Tony Gonzalez, possibly leading them toward a defender with some pass rush juice. The Saints have only four picks (first round, two in the fourth round, seventh round), so their margin for error is thin.
Top needs: DE, DB, RB
15. Houston
Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal
Barring a change, the Texans are committed to bolstering their defense, as they were 27th in points allowed last season. One of their biggest needs is at linebacker, and they know a thing or two about Matthews, as his uncle, Bruce, is on the team's coaching staff. Matthews would project as a starter next to DeMeco Ryans and could also be turned loose on third down in more of a pure rushing role, one of his strong suits. Matthews's college teammate, Brian Cushing, is another possibility for the Texans, who plan to target a running back later.
Top needs: OLB, RB, DB
16. San Diego
Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal
Considered the premier thumper at middle linebacker, Maualuga would step right into the heart of the Chargers' 3-4 and provide an upgrade over Tim Dobbins and Matt Wilhelm. His style - aggressive, ferocious, and sometimes undisciplined - is Charger-like. Some teams might shy away from a player who could deliver a big play on one snap and follow it up with a big mistake on the next, but the Chargers are the type willing to live with such volatility - especially at that position. The chance to land such impact early has added importance because the team is without a second-round pick.
Top needs: ILB, DE, OL
17. NY Jets
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
First-year coach Rex Ryan previously said he's happy with quarterbacks Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff battling it out for the starting job, but we'll find out for sure today because the Jets figure to be in position to select Josh Freeman. Although the Jets hope to install a Ravens-like approach - ball-control offense complementing an attacking, stingy defense - they won't be able to run it consistently if defenses aren't threatened by speed outside the hash marks. Maclin and Darrius Heyward-Bey are two of the fastest receivers in the draft.
Top needs: WR, DE, QB
18. Denver
Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DL, Missouri
One of the objectives of this draft for first-year coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Brian Xanders is to get bigger on defense. Although Hood played mostly the 3-technique at Missouri - lined up over the outside shoulder of the guard and asked to penetrate gaps - he's considered a strong tactician and projects to play the 5-technique in a 3-4 (over the offensive tackle). He's a player who would add versatility to a defense, with the potential to stay on the field on third down and rush from an inside position.
Top needs: DL, LB, DB
19. Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
First-year general manager Mark Dominik signed Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich to cap-friendly two-year contracts, but neither is considered a long-term answer. In selecting Freeman, the Buccaneers would have the infrastructure to have him learn behind the scenes as a rookie, and potentially be a player to build around. Although it would be difficult to pass on Mississippi defensive lineman Peria Jerry, who seems like a natural fit for what first-year defensive coordinator Jim Bates is implementing, the chance to nab a franchise quarterback is too enticing to pass up.
Top needs: DL, CB, QB
20. Detroit
Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Going with a quarterback/tackle combination worked out well for the Falcons last season, when they landed Matt Ryan and Sam Baker. In Football 101, one of the first lessons is that a rebuilding team should start with a quarterback and left tackle, so in this case, the Lions would pass on tempting (but undersized) defensive lineman Peria Jerry and perhaps fill that need at the top of the second or third round with a bigger-bodied option such as Boston College's Ron Brace. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew is also an option.
Top needs: QB, DL, LB
21. Philadelphia
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Running back Brian Westbrook is the centerpiece of their offense, but the Eagles are looking for someone to occasionally lighten the load and also serve as an insurance policy. Westbrook, who hurt his knee last season, will turn 30 at the start of the season. To play running back in the Eagles' West Coast offense, solid pass-catching skills are a must, and Moreno (33 catches as a senior) checks out well in that area. Part of the reason he might slip to this pick is that he lacks top-end speed. If he's gone, the Eagles would look hard at tight end Brandon Pettigrew, a strong blocker to pair with Brent Celek, who is more of a pass catcher.
Top needs: RB, C/G, TE
22. Minnesota
Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
If offensive tackle Eben Britton makes it here, the Vikings would be happy to scoop him up as a bookend on the right side. But they also need a playmaker so defenses can't load up the box against running back Adrian Peterson - and coach Brad Childress traveled to visit Harvin Wednesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. If Harvin was evaluated on football skills alone, he'd be long gone by now, but Foxsports.com reported that he failed a drug test at the combine.
Top needs: RT, WR, CB
23. New England
Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
Fast corners who can cover and also have top change-of-direction skills are hard to find. Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who said earlier this year that a team can never have enough cover men in today's spread-the-field NFL, was present at UConn's Pro Day to see Butler and the Huskies' other top prospects. With Leigh Bodden and Ellis Hobbs entering the final year of their contracts, Butler would provide the Patriots a long-range option at a position that hasn't looked the same since Asante Samuel's departure. If Illinois cornerback Vontae Davis checks out from an off-the-field perspective, he could also be in the discussion, as could a top pass rusher such as Larry English of Northern Illinois. If they feel that linebacker Brian Cushing would be a three-down player - which some scouts doubt - he'd also be on the radar.
Top needs: LB, DB, OL
24. Atlanta
Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal
After acquiring veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez for a 2010 second-round draft choice, the Falcons have stated they're likely to focus on defense with their top pick. Last year's second-round pick, Curtis Lofton, is a solid part around which to build at middle linebacker, and free agent signee Mike Peterson projects to play on the weak side in the team's 4-3. The question is on the strong side, and Cushing - who played a hybrid role at USC in which he lined up on the ball in a 3-4 before moving to play off the ball when the Trojans went to a 4-3 - would fit nicely. Defensive end Larry English and UConn cornerback Darius Butler are possibilities if available.
Top needs: LB, DB, DL
25. Miami
Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
The Dolphins are seeking a receiver opposite Ted Ginn, but in a deep draft at that position, executive vice president of football operations Bill Parcells and general manager Jeff Ireland can still lean toward defense early if a player they like is there, and dip back in later for a pass catcher. The Dolphins had 43 percent of their sack production from one player (Joey Porter) last season and they'd like to spread that around. In English, they get a pro-ready rusher on third down and a player who should have the luxury to learn the outside linebacker spot in Paul Pasqualoni's 3-4.
Top needs: WR, LB, CB
26. Baltimore
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
The Ravens could end up trading this pick to the Cardinals for receiver Anquan Boldin, but if they keep it, Pettigrew is the type of player general manager Ozzie Newsome targets - big and physical. The 6-5, 263-pound Pettigrew is considered the most complete tight end in the draft, as he is both a blocker and pass catcher, a rare breed in the college game. Veteran Todd Heap is slowing down, and although the Ravens signed L.J. Smith in free agency, he's not a long-term option. Cornerback Vontae Davis is also on the Ravens' radar, depending on how the board falls.
Top needs: TE, WR, CB
27. Indianapolis
Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
If a tackle slips to the Colts, they're likely to pounce, as both Jerry and Missouri's Ziggy Hood are considered good fits. Both are natural 3-technique players, lining up over the outside shoulder of the guard and penetrating. Although Hood is considered adaptable to a 3-4 scheme by some teams, Jerry is more of a pure 4-3 defensive lineman. If a defensive lineman isn't there, the Colts figure to look toward a deep class of receivers because of Marvin Harrison's departure (Ohio State's Brian Robiskie or Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey) or a running back such as UConn's Donald Brown.
Top needs: WR, DL, RB
28. Buffalo
Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
The Bills would love to see tight end Brandon Pettigrew slide, or one of the top five offensive tackles. If not, they'd be left with a decision of taking the best player on their board and duplicating a previous selection - someone such as Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin - or drafting for need.
Top needs: OT, DE, TE
29. NY Giants
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
In their search to add receiving weapons after releasing Plaxico Burress and not re-signing Amani Toomer, the Giants could revisit trade talks with the Browns for receiver Braylon Edwards if they don't like the value on the board, or take the same approach they did following their Super Bowl triumph, when their patience rewarded them with safety Kenny Phillips. The speedy Heyward-Bey is the type of player who could go early (Raiders, No. 7), possibly slide to the middle of the round (Jets, No. 17), or even make it this far.
Top needs: WR, LB, TE
30. Tennessee
Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Titans missed out on free agent Torry Holt, so they could pick a receiver from the likes of Kenny Britt (Rutgers) and Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina), although they have generally shied away from pass catchers in the opening round. The last time they went that route was with Kevin Dyson in 1998. When playing in a division in which you're competing against Peyton Manning twice a year, it's good business to have two solid corners. The Titans have one in All-Pro Cortland Finnegan. The other option, Nick Harper, enters the final year of his contract.
Top needs: WR, CB, LB
31. Arizona
Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
The Cardinals finished last in the NFL in rushing yards per game in 2008, and 31st in average yards per carry. It appears Edgerrin James's time in the desert is nearing its end - possibly as early as Monday - as the team is in search of fresh legs to pair with Tim Hightower. If one of the top three backs (Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown) doesn't slip, the Cardinals would consider looking toward pass rushers such as Larry English or Aaron Maybin, as three of their outside linebackers have battled injuries and are in their 30s.
Top needs: RB, LB, TE
32. Pittsburgh
Alex Mack, C, California
The defending Super Bowl champions are well stocked and have the luxury to draft for depth on both lines. This is traditionally a spot in which excellent value can be found with interior linemen (e.g., Logan Mankins for the Patriots in 2005). Starting center Justin Hartwig enters the final year of his contract, and the Steelers can groom Mack as a future replacement, while also cross-training him at guard in a backup role.
Top needs: OL, DL, CB
Mike Reiss can be reached at mreiss@globe.com.
