Time is of the essence

Indianapolis Colts (14-4) at New England Patriots (15-2)

3 p.m. - Channel 4 - Line: Patriots by 3

When the Colts run

Colts' rushing offense - 105.9 yards per game, 19th in the NFL

Patriots' rushing defense - 89.6 yards per game, fourth in the NFL

Colts coach Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore came into the 2003 season intent on keeping Edgerrin James's workload under control in order to have him fresh for the stretch drive and playoffs. The Colts' considerable backfield depth (Dominic Rhodes, Ricky Williams, James Mungro) coupled with James sitting out Weeks 4-6 with a back injury meant a rested James for December and the playoffs, and the results speak volumes. James rushed for at least 88 yards in six of the last seven games of the regular season, followed by 78 yards in a blowout of the Broncos and 125 against the Chiefs' defense, if you can call it that, in the playoffs. The Patriots' defense, undoubtedly, will be a tougher test, but James is playing his best football of the season at the right time. You won't see the Colts' entire stable of runners on display today. Rhodes is the primary backup and will get a handful of carries, but Mungro is on injured reserve with turf toe and Williams has rushed the ball just twice since the middle of November. James is back to being the workhorse. It's not if the Colts can run, but whether they can run at critical times. Short-yardage situations have really been a problem, and not just the Patriots' goal-line stand in the first meeting. Mungro excelled in this area but is not available, and the Colts' offensive line isn't exactly a bunch of maulers.
EDGE: Patriots

When the Colts pass

Colts' passing offense - 261.2 yards per game, first in the NFL

Patriots' passing defense - 202.0 yards per game, 15th in the NFL

Peyton Manning could not have better answered his critics, who said prior to the postseason that the Indianapolis quarterback couldn't win a big game. His response? Just the greatest performance over a two-game span for a quarterback in NFL playoff history. Perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Broncos. Eight touchdown passes and just 12 incompletions the last two weeks. The list goes on and on. Manning seems in total control at the moment, and his teammates' faith is him is unwavering. But Manning isn't doing it alone. First, he has one of the top three wideouts in football in Marvin Harrison, an exquisite route-runner with blazing speed and soft hands. One of the Colts' weaknesses in recent years was the lack of a solid No. 2 receiver but that is no longer the case with the emergence of Reggie Wayne, a first-round pick in 2001. Wayne isn't a burner, but he's not afraid to go across the middle and is great after the catch. And Brandon Stokley, whose durability has long been a question mark, has really come on with 25 receptions for 368 yards and six TDs in the last five games. Explosive tight end Marcus Pollard is less than 100 percent because of an ankle sprain and with Dallas Clark already out (broken right fibula), the Colts' options are limited at the position. Former Boston College star Pete Mitchell, a recent pickup, could see some action. Regardless, the Colts have plenty of weapons in the passing game.
EDGE: Colts

When the Patriots run

Patriots' rushing offense - 100.4 yards per game, 27th in the NFL

Colts' rushing defense - 123.8 yards per game, 20th in the NFL

As the season wound down, Dungy believed his defensive players had finally turned the corner and grasped his system. And he may still believe that, but whether it be a lack of understanding or execution, this team still is getting ripped apart against the run. After a regular season in which they allowed 4.5 yards per carry, the Colts have been torched for 6.1 yards per rush in their two playoffs wins, albeit against two of the best running teams in football (Denver and Kansas City). Dungy's system, which aims to get defenders upfield in a hurry to disrupt plays, works better with a rotation to keep players fresh, but the problem is there are no stars in the Colts' rotation. Larry Tripplett, a 2002 second-round pick; Montae Reagor, a free agent pickup from Denver; former end Chad Bratzke; and onetime starter Josh Williams are in the mix at tackle, but this team lacks a big, athletic body to plug into the middle and make teams think twice about running inside. The linebackers have been solid, especially David Thornton, who took over on the weak side for free agent loss Mike Peterson (Jacksonville), but power running teams continue to have their way with the Colts. That should play into the Patriots' hands. Sure, they're minus their best offensive lineman (guard Damien Woody), but big back Antowain Smith is playing his best football since the 2001 season, and when he has a nice initial burst it becomes tough to bring down his 232 pounds.
EDGE: Patriots

When the Patriots pass

Patriots' passing offense - 214.5 yards per game, ninth in the NFL

Colts' passing defense - 175.6 yards per game, fifth in the NFL

The kind of disruptor the Colts lack against the run they definitely possess against the pass. Right end Dwight Freeney is one of those rare defenders who is capable of taking over a game singlehandedly. Freeney, who because of his speed is extremely difficult to neutralize off the edge, burst upon the scene as a rookie last season with a franchise-record 13 sacks. Teams wised up and Freeney was limited to 11 sacks in 2003 but when he is let loose and instructed simply to get to the quarterback, he eventually does. The other primary pass-rushing threat is strongside linebacker Marcus Washington. Washington was invisible over the second half of last season but rebounded with a solid 2003, including six sacks. And the Colts will need to apply pressure to Tom Brady to protect a secondary that not only is far from the league's best but is extremely banged-up. Nick Harper, who led the Colts with four interceptions this season, fellow starting corner Walt Harris, free safety Idrees Bashir, and his backup Donald Strickland, all missed practice time leading up to this game because of various ailments. The others are all sure to play but Bashir is questionable with a separated right shoulder. Even if the Indianapolis secondary was at full strength it would have a hard time containing a New England passing game designed to control the ball for long periods and keep Manning and Co. off the field.
EDGE: Patriots.

Patriots' keys to victory

1. Shake it up - Peyton Manning's timing must be disrupted.

2. Clock management - Possess the ball and keep the Colts' offense on the sideline.

3. Chief concern - Tackle better than Kansas City did; it shouldn't be difficult.

Colts' keys to victory

1. Line, score - This time, cash in on goal-line chances.

2. First things first - Run to set up the pass.

3. Be creative - This team has had trouble producing turnovers.

Prediction

Patriots 24, Colts 17

Colts' key offensive player - Peyton Manning
Manning has thrown at least 26 touchdown passes in each of his six NFL seasons.

How he beats you
Manning is one of the league's most accurate passers and there may not be a more prepared player in the NFL. His play-action fakes are the best in the business.

How to shut him down
Manning lacks mobility and has trouble throwing on the move. When protection breaks down, he's in trouble.

Colts' key defensive player - Dwight Freeney
Freeney, who is only in his second season, already has two of the eight double-digit sack outputs in Colts history.

How he beats you
Might possess the quickest first step of any pass rusher in football, making it difficult for opposing offensive linemen to recover. He also has great closing speed and is an elite open-field tackler.

How to shut him down
At 6 feet 1 inch, 268 pounds, Freeney is undersized. When linemen can lock onto him, he can be taken out of the play.

Colts injuries: Out: TE Dallas Clark (ankle). Questionable: S Idrees Bashir (shoulder). Probable: S Cory Bird (leg/shoulder); S Mike Doss (ankle); CB Nicholas Harper (back); CB Walt Harris (knee); WR Marvin Harrison (chest); DE Robert Mathis (groin); G Tupe Peko (shoulder); TE Marcus Pollard (ankle); CB Donald Strickland (knee/shoulder).

Patriots injury: Doubtful: C Damien Woody (knee).