Calling on ground control
Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New England Patriots (3-3)
8:30 p.m. on Channel 5, ESPN (Line: Patriots by 9)
When the Bills run
Willis McGahee has seemingly answered all the doubters. The 6-foot, 228-pound tailback, who suffered a pair of major knee injuries in college (and missed his entire rookie season rehabbing), has become among the most consistent runners in the game. After seizing the starter's job from Travis Henry midway through last season, McGahee rushed for more than 1,100 yards. This season McGahee has rumbled for 654 yards on 154 carries. He's stronger and shiftier than he looks. McGahee explodes through the tiniest cracks but also possesses the patience to let his blocks develop. When he makes it past the first line of defense, he kicks it into high gear, leaving linebackers and slow-footed safeties in his wake. McGahee will more than likely be running to the left behind tackle Mike Gandy and guard Bennie Anderson. The right side of Buffalo's line is in disarray as starting tackle Mike Williams is questionable and backup Greg Jerman is out with ankle woes. The Bills may be forced to start Jason Peters, a converted tight end, at tackle. Guard Chris Villarrial is recovering from a concussion suffered last week in Oakland. Center Trey Teague (6-5, 300 pounds) is the leader of this line. The eight-year veteran is smart, agile, and when he gets into a groove can dominate the line. Massive nose tackle Vince Wilfork has to overpower Teague and deliver some shots on McGahee to give the Patriots' front seven some confidence. The expected return of stalwarts Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi will do wonders for this struggling group.
EDGE – Patriots
Rushing yards per game:
Buffalo offense: 124.6 12th in NFL
NE defense: 125.3 25th in NFL
When the Bills pass
With the JP Losman era on hold, the Bills have hitched their wagon to journeyman quarterback Kelly Holcomb. A nine-year veteran, the 6-2, 212-pound Holcomb won't make a lot of mistakes but doesn't hit a lot of home runs, either. And more than anything, this is an offense in search of a home run hitter. The Bills have completed only four passes of 20 or more yards this season, including just one on the road. The team also has gone 37 games without a 300-yard passer. When your starting receivers are Eric Moulds and Lee Evans, those stats are unacceptable. Holcomb needs to take a few shots downfield early to test New England's struggling secondary. Holcomb, however, doesn't have a great arm and occasionally struggles with accuracy. Moulds (6-2, 210 pounds) should be able to overpower any of New England's corners, while Evans has blazing speed and must be mugged at the snap to prevent him from running roughshod through the secondary. If Holcomb can gain some confidence and get into a groove, it'll prevent the Patriots from stacking eight men in the box and open some room for McGahee. Tight end Mark Campbell (6-6, 255 pounds) is an above-average blocker and provides a solid safety valve for Holcomb. If Seymour is healthy, he'll team with Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest to make life miserable for the athletically-challenged Holcomb, who simply isn't the type of QB who can buy extra time by scrambling.
EDGE – Patriots
Passing yards per game:
Buffalo offense: 113.4 31st in NFL
NE defense: 228 28th in NFL
When the Patriots run
Corey Dillon had to be licking his chops as he watched film of Buffalo's run defense this season. Ditto for Patrick Pass and Amos Zereoue. Heck, Sam Bam Cunningham might be able to slice through this struggling unit. The Bills have allowed four 100-yard rushers and two others have rushed for 97. Mike Mularkey's battered bunch, which gave up six rushing touchdowns all of last year, has given up six in its last two games. The main reason for the dramatic dropoff is the loss of Takeo Spikes, the monster linebacker who tore an Achilles' tendon earlier this season. Tough tackle Ron Edwards also is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Bills have one of the best run-stuffing nose tackles in the game in massive Sam Adams, but the 6-4, 335-pound, 12th-year veteran faces constant double teams and his inexperienced running mates have yet to show they can consistently make plays. With a little help from his friends, New England center Dan Koppen can use his smarts and athleticism to neutralize Adams. Linebacker London Fletcher is Buffalo's best defender. The 5-10, 245-pound middleman used to be considered a weak link against the run, but no longer. Fletcher reads formations quickly and makes plays from sideline to sideline. Fletcher's wing men are Jeff Posey and Angelo Crowell. Posey (6-4, 241 pounds) sheds blockers quickly and makes thunderous hits. Crowell, a 6-1, 235-pound third-year veteran, is still learning his craft but plays with a nonstop engine.
EDGE: Patriots
Rushing yards per game:
NE offense: 82.3 27th in NFL
Buffalo defense: 159 31st in NFL
When the Patriots pass
As porous as the Bills' run defense has been, the secondary has been just the opposite. This unit is a who's who of Pro Bowl performers. Nate Clements is on a mission to become the NFL's best cornerback – and he's just about there. The 6-foot, 209-pound Clements loves to gamble, but with exceptional speed, quickness, and an uncanny ability to recover even when he stumbles, he rarely loses. Terrence McGee is the other starting corner and unlike Clements, rarely gambles but rarely gets burned. McGee (5-10, 195 pounds) is comparatively small but very aggressive. Free safety Troy Vincent was once one of the league's elite corners. These days the 14-year veteran is enjoying a rebirth in Buffalo. He still has excellent speed and his route recognition is superb (he leads the team with three interceptions). He no longer can cover one-on-one on every play, but his veteran savvy make him a perfect support specialist. On the subject of rebirths, Lawyer Milloy is reestablishing himself as one of the most feared safeties in the league. The 10-year veteran is second on the Bills with 39 tackles and has a sack and an interception. Tom Brady, who has been carving up secondaries this season (a league-high 1,821 yards) will have his biggest challenge of the season tonight. One of Brady's best qualities is that he refuses to get locked onto one receiver. Most defenses like to take away a QB's favorite target, but with Brady, that “favorite target” changes every week. Look for Deion Branch to get matched up with Clements, while the more powerful David Givens could give the diminutive McGee fits. Tight ends Daniel Graham and Benjamin Watson will be tough for either the linebackers or safeties to handle one-on-one.
EDGE – Bills
Passing yards per game:
Patriots offense: 295.5 second in NFL
Buffalo defense: 153.6 third in NFL
Patriots' keys to victory
1. Inside track: If Dillon's healthy, it's time to pound through one of the weakest run defenses in the NFL.
2. Big Mac attack: Let McGinest loose so he can ruin Holcomb's evening.
3. Return to sender: Wrap up Clements and McGee or these exceptional return men will go the distance.
Bills' keys to victory
1. Make a stand: The Patriots have struggled running the ball, it's time for the Bills to prove they're no pushovers.
2. Deep-fry: Use Evans to stretch the defense and prevent the Patriots from stacking against McGahee.
3. London calling: Fletcher has to be everywhere so he can set the tone for this once-proud defense.
Bills' key offensive player: Mark Campbell
This seven-year veteran is big and mobile. He's used more as a blocker, but with the Patriots having trouble defending tight ends lately, this could be Campbell's chance to break out.
How he beats you: With smarts. Campbell can shed defenders quickly and is adept at breaking his pattern and coming back to the ball when his QB's in trouble.
How to shut him down: Tying him up at the line will disrupt his rythym. He's been injury prone, so a few well-timed shots will throw him off his game.
Bills' key defensive player: Lawyer Milloy
A highly-emotional player, this 10-year veteran and former fan favorite in Foxborough returns to the town where he cut his NFL teeth.
How he beats you: By intimidation. Milloy is one of the most ferocious hitters in the game and never misses an opportunity to deliver a thunderous hit. He's a terrific run supporter and can blitz like an outside linebacker.
How to shut him down: By going deep. Milloy isn't as fast as he used to be and gets hurt by quick receivers and his sometimes overaggressive nature.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17
