Racket sport in dome
New England Patriots (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2) 8:30 p.m., Ch. 5, ESPN.
Line: Patriots by 1
When the Patriots run
This should be one of the more interesting subplots. The Patriots feature one of the best rushing offenses in the league (131.5 yards per game) while the Vikings have the No. 1 rushing defense (70.8 yards). On paper, New England looks vulnerable, with versatile and valuable guard Stephen Neal out (shoulder). The 6-4, 305-pounder's absence is amplified with tackle Russ Hochstein (knee) and honorary offensive lineman Daniel Graham (ankle) out, too. Sophomore Nick Kaczur should see time and Billy Yates will have to step up and prove tonight why he's the highest-paid practice player in the universe. Two guys who will answer the bell are tailbacks Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. Both have shown the ability to bounce off hits this season and they'll need to be at their tackle-breaking best. Dillon will get the first crack at wearing out the defense before Maroney gets a chance to deliver some knockout blows. The Vikings employ a 4-3 front and feature one of the best tackle tandems in the league in Kevin and Pat Williams. Kevin is a 6-5, 304-pounder who blends speed and power. He's a real blue-collar worker who uses a variety of moves to overpower his blocker and seek out ball carriers. At 6-3, 317 pounds, Pat is no slouch himself. Despite that massive frame, Pat has an explosive first step, which keeps blockers on their heels. They excel at tying up guards, allowing the linebacking corps of Ben Leber, Napoleon Harris, and E.J. Henderson to make plays.
Edge: Vikings
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady's offensive running mates are getting up to speed and that's bad news for opponents. Chief among the receiving threats is tight end Ben Watson. Though he may be needed more for his blocking skills with Graham ailing, Watson has the potential to run wild tonight because none of the Vikings linebackers excel in coverage. If Watson is allowed a clean break at the snap, he'll be open in the secondary quickly. And there's not a defensive back in the free world who relishes taking on a rumbling 6-3, 253-pound Watson one-on-one. Chad Jackson is champing at the bit to become Brady's go-to deep threat. Now that the rookie is off the injury report and on the field, expect that chemistry to only get better. Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell (15 catches each) are the intermediate threats and Brady seems to be gaining trust in these two weekly. Gabriel has good size and good hands. Caldwell has a knack for getting open but still drops too many catchable balls. What's left to say about Troy Brown? Now in his 14th season, he's still knows how to get open and has exceptional hands. When it's third and 5, teams know Brady's going to Brown, and they still can't stop him. Brady will need to be aware of defensive end Darrion Scott. The third-year vet has decent speed and power. He's smart enough to know when to rush the pocket and when to stay home and defend screens. Cornerbacks Antoine Winfield and Fred Smoot are excellent in coverage.
Edge: Patriots
When the Vikings run
Minnesota's ability to run successfully tonight depends on one player -- and it's neither Chester Taylor nor Mewelde Moore. In fact, this 6-foot-6-inch, 310-pound behemoth doesn't wear a purple helmet. Richard Seymour's presence drastically changes how teams attack the Patriots. When Seymour missed four-plus games last year with a sprained knee ligament, all five opponents rushed for more than 100 yards. When Seymour returned in early November, only the Chiefs cracked the 100-yard mark. (Seymour didn't play in the finale vs. Miami). Seymour can engulf double teams with his power and shoot gaps with his speed. Taylor arrived in Minnesota this season after living in Jamal Lewis's shadow in Baltimore. The 5-11, 213-pound Taylor has excellent vision and patience. He hits holes quickly and as his 95-yard burst last week showed, he has the speed to turn the corner and outrun linebackers and defensive backs. Moore is slippery. He does a lot of dancing and stutter-stepping, but a lack of size (5-11, 209 pounds) and speed limits his effectiveness. The left side of the Vikings line is impressive. Steve Hutchinson is arguably the best guard in the game (just ask Shaun Alexander). The 6-5, 313-pounder isn't fooled by stunts or blitz packages and is just as comfortable driving ahead or pulling and trapping. Hutchinson teams with 6-8, 343-pound tackle Bryant McKinnie, who, despite his awesome size, will get pushed around on occasion.
Edge: Vikings
When the Vikings pass
Brad Johnson is the definition of a cagey veteran. The 15-year quarterback doesn't have the quickest feet or the strongest arm, but he is smart and he knows how to win. Johnson knows how to take care of the football (he's completed 62 percent of his passes) with 159 touchdowns and 106 interceptions. Johnson has excellent pre-snap recognition and rarely gambles. He knows what works and he sticks with it. Minnesota's new West Coast offense fits Johnson to a T. While none of his receivers have gaudy numbers, they all know their roles and have been excelling. Travis Taylor is the only true deep threat, but the seven-year veteran is easily intimidated. One good Rodney Harrison pop early and Taylor is likely to lose interest. Troy Williamson has the speed to be a home run hitter, but like Taylor, he doesn't like to get physical. If he gets jammed at the line it throws off his rhythm and he starts to pout. Jermaine Wiggins has developed into an elite pass-catching tight end. He sheds blocks quickly, has strong hands, and will fight for the ball. He lacks blocking skills, but those duties fall to fellow tight end Jim Kleinsasser, anyway. Kleinsasser uses his 6-3, 274-pound frame to keep blitzers at bay and will chip in with the occasional catch. Chester Taylor and Moore are exceptional threats out of the backfield. Both have soft hands and are exceptional on screen plays because of their vision and ability to cut back. Harvard-trained center Matt Birk makes all the line calls.
Edge: Vikings
VIKINGS’ KEY PLAYER: Brad Johnson
An exceptional game manager. Johnson is adept at taking what the defense gives him. He rarely gets greedy and he rarely gambles.
How he beats you: By making adjustments. He’s been around long enough to recognize most defenses and he’s smart enough to check down to get favorable matchups.
How to beat him: With speed. To say Johnson is slow is an understatement. If the ends and linebackers can get in his face quickly, he’ll be forced to throw it into the stands.
VIKINGS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
1. Dome sweet dome: Score early and keep the noise and energy levels high. Keeping the crowd into it will help keep the Patriots out of it.
2. More Mewelde: Keep Taylor fresh by mixing in this excellent change-of-pace back.
3. Purple people eaters: Williams Bros. have to engulf the offensive line and smother Dillon and Maroney.
PATRIOTS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
1. Dome wreckers: Score early and take the rabid Minnesotans out of it, don’t cha know.
2. Happy domecoming: Maroney’s logged a lot of miles on this rug. Time to remind the domefolks what they’re missing.
3. Get Wiggy with it: Linebackers Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin must slug Wiggins to keep him from roaming free over the middle.
