Scouting report: Patriots at Bengals
When the Bengals pass:
Led by Carson Palmer, the Bengals passing game is one of the most lethal in the NFL. The unflappable Palmer has a bevy of weapons at his disposal, and the 6-5, 230-pounder does an exceptional job of getting everyone involved. Palmer has superb arm strength and a nice touch. His top target is the flamboyant Chad Johnson. His end zone and sideline antics aside, Johnson is special. He has the best hands in the business and plays bigger and tougher than his 6-1, 192-pound frame. He has good speed and can kick it into another gear when the ball is in the air. Johnson lacks mental toughness and can be thrown off his game by some punishing hits. He'll pout when things don't go his way. On the opposite side is T.J. Houshmandzadeh, one of the strongest and toughest receivers in the game. He'll never turn the other cheek and is fearless attacking the middle of the defense. No matter how thunderous the hit, Houshmandzadeh won't drop the ball. A lack of speed is the only thing keeping him from being listed among the league's elite. Reserves Skyler Green and Glenn Holt are average at best. Tight end Reggie Kelly has pretty good hands but is known more for his blocking. He's good for one big play per game. New England corners Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel will need help from safeties Eugene Wilson and James Sanders (i.e. some well-timed hits) to try and minimize Johnson's damage. They'll need help from linebackers Thomas and Bruschi (i.e. some well-timed hits) to minimize Houshmandzadeh's damage. EDGE: Bengals
When the Bengals run:
Rudi Johnson (hamstring) will be missed tomorrow as he has developed into one of the most reliable running backs in the NFL, eclipsing 1,300 yards three straight seasons. Kenny Watson, who has proven to be a more-than-adequate backup, gets the start tonight and it'll be his first opportunity to prove he can be a featured back. Watson is neither speedy or elusive but does run tough between the tackles. The 5-foot-11-inch, 220-pounder needs to run a little lower to avoid taking many direct shots because he needs to remain healthy and fresh all night. Watson is exceptional at picking up rogue blitzers. Little-known DeDe Dorsey is the backup. The 5-10, 196-pounder has yet to carry the ball in a regular-season game. An undrafted free agent a year ago, he arrived in the NFL from Lindenwood College with a reputation as a breakaway runner. Fullback Jeremi Johnson is among the league's elite lead blockers. The 5-11, 260-pounder can really push the pile and is responsible for creating a lot of lanes for the tailbacks. He might get a few more carries than normal tonight to help pick up the slack for Rudi's absence. The Bengals best run blocker is right tackle Willie Anderson. A 6-5, 340-pound behemoth, Anderson swallows defenders and plays with a mean streak. Levi Jones (6-5, 310 pounds) will take over at left tackle after struggling early in his first season in Cincinnati. At the top of his game, Jones combines speed and strength to punish opponents. He lacks stamina, however, and often disappears at crunch time. Mountain man Andrew Whitworth (6-7, 339 pounds), who had started at tackle, has moved back to guard. Whitworth is strong and relentless. Rugged center Eric Ghiaciuc plays with balance but has been hampered by a thumb injury. The Patriots have been solid against the run, with big bodies Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren clogging lanes and linebackers Adalius Thomas, Junior Seau, and Ted Bruschi clean up the leftovers. EDGE: Patriots
When the Patriots pass:
Tom Brady has carved up three consecutive defenses and it's a pretty safe bet he'll make it four in a row tonight. The Bengals have yet to prove they can stop anyone let alone one of the most lethal attacks in the NFL. If Cincinnati can't generate some sort of pass rush tonight, the defensive backs will end up running for their lives. Defensive end Justin Smith is solid. He has good quickness for a 6-4, 275-pounder and has shown he can shed blocks quickly. He'll be banging heads today with underrated Patriots tackle Matt Light. The 6-4, 305-pound Light has decent quickness and excellent hands. He can get overwhelmed by elite rushers, but he matches up well against Smith. Brady's stable of receivers appears unstoppable. Randy Moss is a nightmare matchup because he's deceptively quick, surprisingly strong, and most important, interested. One of the NFL's top deep threats, only complacency can stop Moss right now. Wes Welker is everything you want from a slot receiver. He's tough, has great hands, and the all-important ability to get open. Donte' Stallworth, whose impact has been minimal so far, is the speediest receiver in the bunch. He can stretch defense like few players, but there's only so many balls to go around. Deltha O'Neal starts at one corner, and though he shows flashes of brilliance, he's terribly inconsistent. When his gambles pay off, he's a hero. Sometimes, however, he jumps routes too early and leaves his receiver all alone. He'll fall for at least one Brady pump fake tonight. Johnathan Joseph plays the opposite corner. He's very athletic and has good cover skills. Top safety Madieu Williams is a ballhawking playmaker but a below average tackler. EDGE: Patriots
When the Patriots run:
Anyone out there still worried about the affect Corey Dillon's departure will have on New England's ground transportation? This is playing out better than anyone in the organization could have hoped. The Patriots are getting production without having to give starter Laurence Maroney 25-plus carries a game. Maroney is averaging 18 totes a game and 4.7 a carry. Maroney has been electric at times, dancing, juking, and sidestepping his way into the secondary. He'll throw in a negative play here and there, but for the most part Maroney has proven he's one of the most exciting players in the game. Top reserve Sammy Morris has a new lease on life since escaping football purgatory in Miami. Morris, who is averaging 11 carries and 4.6 per rush, runs tough between the tackles and has shown he can still change direction and make defenders miss. Defenses often think the Patriots are going to pass when Kevin Faulk checks in. That's not always true, however, as Faulk still has the giddy up to be a productive rusher. New England's attack begins up front with center Dan Koppen. Often overlooked, Koppen is technically sound. He explodes out of his stance, delivers a solid punch, and his tremendous balance prevents him from getting knocked on his butt. Koppen's main mission tonight will be to get his mitts on middle linebacker Ahmad Brooks. A 6-3, 259-pound terror, Brooks blends speed and nastiness to crush ballcarriers. He covers a lot of ground (though he's dealing with a sore groin) and is known for his thunderous hits. Defensive tackles John Thornton (he's quick and athletic) and Domata Peko (he's big but slow) are effective early but wear down late.EDGE: Patriots
Bengals' keys to victory
1.Hurry up: Cincy's strength is its offense. Use the no huddle to keep your playmakers on the field and prevent New England from mass substitutions.
2.Safety squeeze: Madieu Williams and Dexter Jackson have to mug Randy Moss (with or without the ball) so the receiver's looking over his shoulder for defenders, not passes.
3.Johnson & Johnson: Balance is a must. The offense has to get production from Rudi and Chad. It's not possible to beat the Patriots with a one-dimensional attack.
Patriots' keys to victory
1.Punishment duty: The secondary has to manhandle Chad Johnson so he becomes disinterested. When he gets hit, he becomes a different player.
2.Middle management: Lay a shoulder into T.J. Houshmandzadeh to throw him off his route, taking away Carson Palmer's favorite safety valve.
3.Road block: Get physical with linebacker Ahmad Brooks. He's force against the run and is developing into a solid pass rusher. He's Cincinnati's lone defensive difference maker.
Bengals' key player -- Carson Palmer
This 6-5, 230-pound stud has the strongest arm in the league. He's anxious to get lead team back to playoffs after a disappointing 2006 season in which he was still recovering from knee surgery.
How he beats you: With versatility. Palmer can make all the throws. He's accurate on the long ball, can zip it in tightly over the middle, and has a deft touch on screens. When he's on, Palmer is downright Manning-like.
How to beat him: Get him on the run. His accuracy suffers when he's flushed from the pocket and he's prone to bad decisions under duress.
Prediction:
Patriots 31, Bengals 13
