Bills to pay

New England Patriots (9-0) at Buffalo Bills (5-4)
8:15 p.m., Channel 7. Line: Patriots by 15 1/2

When the Patriots run

Could this be Laurence Maroney's breakout game? The stars may be aligned. Maroney eclipsed 100 yards in Week 3 vs. the Bills; Buffalo gave up 124 yards to Miami journeyman Jesse Chatman last week; and the Bills' comparatively small front four have been less than impressive lately. Maroney, finally healthy, is both explosive and powerful. He's a patient runner, though sometimes that patience turns into indecisiveness and Maroney will get buried behind the line of scrimmage or after a short gain. More often than not, he makes positive yardage when he follows his first instinct. Speaking of instincts, Kevin Faulk has some of the best in the league. The 5-foot-8-inch sparkplug is elusive. He has good initial quickness and almost always makes positive yardage. As always, the key to a team's success on the ground starts up front, and in New England that starts with center Dan Koppen, who has good balance and strong hands, allowing him to redirect rushers. At guard, Logan Mankins is never satisfied with his initial block. He's always looking to tick someone else off before the whistle blows. The Bills' initial line of defense of ends Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel and tackles Larry Tripplett and Kyle Williams lacks bulk, but they do a lot of twisting and stunting to shed their blocks.
Edge: Patriots

When the Patriots pass

This really isn't a fair matchup: New England's lethal passing game against one of the league's weakest pass defenses. Tom Brady riddled the Bills for 311 yards and four TDs in Week 3 and faced virtually no pass rush (he was sacked just once). He's likely to top those numbers tonight. The Bills will have trouble slowing the elite receiving corps of Randy Moss (he's too fast and too tall), Donté Stallworth (he's too fast and too strong), Wes Welker (he's too sneaky), and Ben Watson (he's too everything). The Bills' best corner is Terrence McGee. He's extremely quick, changes directions smoothly, and has good closing speed. The 5-foot-9-inch, 195-pounder might be able to stick with Moss and Stallworth, but he lacks the physical attributes to shut them down consistently. On the opposite corner is Jabari Greer. Another undersized player (5-11, 169), Greer has good cover skills on short and intermediate routes but can be exposed on deep routes. Aaron Schobel, long one of the NFL's best pass rushers, has struggled this year. The speedy, 6-4, 262-pound end has a mere 2 1/2 sacks, and his tackle high for the season is six. Opposite end Chris Kelsay is quick and has a high-end motor.
Edge: Patriots

When the Bills run

Marshawn Lynch is quietly turning in an impressive rookie campaign. If it were not for Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, the 5-foot-11-inch, 217-pound Lynch would be getting a lot of Rookie of the Year consideration. If Lynch, who is nursing an ankle sprain, can't go tonight, this game is as good as over. Lynch hits holes quickly and will bounce outside and turn the corner if he can't find a crease. If Lynch can't play, the wild card is Dwayne Wright. The undrafted rookie has good size (5-11, 228) and good balance but has minimal experience (25 carries, 76 yards). Wright excels at changing speeds and exploiting cutback lanes but his lack of breakaway speed will hurt him against the Patriots. A big part of the running game's success is the emergence of left tackle Jason Peters and left guard Derrick Dockery. These two behemoths (Peters is 6-4, 328, while Dockery is 6-6, 335) are more athletic than their size would lead you to believe. Defensive end Richard Seymour, who specializes in knifing through gaps and making plays against the run, will have trouble locating holes on the left side. Vince Wilfork must dominate his battles with center Melvin Fowler (he'll wear down in the second half) and force Lynch, Wright, or Anthony Thomas outside where Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel will be waiting.
Edge: Patriots

When the Bills pass

The roller coaster career of quarterback J.P. Losman appears to be on the rise again, and he'll get the start tonight after taking over for rookie Trent Edwards, who is hampered by wrist woes. Losman has been teasing and frustrating Bills fans for four years. Losman is an excellent athlete who excels in the short passing game. He's not a traditional scrambler, but his quick feet allow him to buy time. He excels on dumpoffs and screen passes. Marshawn Lynch and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wright are reliable receivers, and Losman needs to find them to be successful. Losman's accuracy suffers on long balls. His biggest deficiency is decision-making. The pressure on Losman will come from all directions: Junior Seau and Adalius Thomas up the middle and Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel off the edges. Lee Evans is Buffalo's best receiver, a true home run threat combining excellent speed, exceptional hands, and exciting after-the-catch moves. Evans is aggressive and tough and will see a lot of Asante Samuel in his mug tonight. Roscoe Parrish's combination of quickness, hands, and jaw-dropping moves makes him a threat from anywhere on the field. But he will struggle when things get physical.
Edge: Patriots

Bills' key player

One of the quickest players in the NFL, Parrish has been hobbled recently by a thigh injury. He needs to make plays in the passing game and on special teams to keep the Bills in this game.

How he beats you: With speed and moves. Parrish has good hands and myriad moves in the open field. With New England’s recent tackling woes, Parrish, who lacks strength but can break tackles, could be in for a big game.

How to shut him down: By keeping him off the field. This shifty little devil does his best work on punt returns, so keep scoring to avoid putting the ball in his hands. Oh, and make the first hit count.

Bills' keys to victory

1. Buffalo wings: Receivers Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish have to step up and dominate, especially if Marshawn Lynch is out. Both have sure hands and can be magical after the catch.

2. Buffalo soldiers: The muchmaligned linebacking corps, headed by Angelo Crowell, has to sift through the blocks and keep the backs from making big plays.

3. Buffalo sabers: The special teams have to remain sharp. Exceptional returners Terrence McGee and Parrish have to make plays to help offset the Bills’ lack of offense.

Patriots' keys to victory

1. Early strikes: Test Buffalo’s shaky secondary right away. Getting ahead early takes the crowd out and lets you salt the game away.

2. Early returns: Ellis Hobbs and Wes Welker have shown game-breaking ability on returns this year. A quick one could put this game out of reach early.

3. Early warnings: Two weeks removed from the Colts clash, this is a classic letdown game. If the Patriots appear lethargic early, Bill Belichick has to shake things up to remove the cobwebs.

Prediction