If the Patriots run into Pittsburgh in the playoffs, they won't have to worry about top Steelers back Willie Parker, who broke a leg.
(JEFF ROBERSON/Associated Press)
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. - One of the Patriots' mantras during their run at a perfect 16-0 season has been that they can focus only on the game and the opponent that week. Another constant theme was that they had more important goals, meaning the Super Bowl.
But just because the Patriots went into last night's game focused on beating the Giants, it didn't mean the rest of us couldn't take a few minutes to look ahead on the road to 19-0 and the Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., Feb. 3.
"First of all, they have a great coach and great leaders and I expect this team to win the whole thing," said Jerry Rice, a Super Bowl MVP as a receiver with the San Francisco 49ers and now an analyst for Sirius NFL Radio. "The only competition I see, if anyone matches up pretty good, I would say it's going to be the Jacksonville Jaguars with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.
"No one else should give New England a problem. Indianapolis, if they had Marvin Harrison at his best, that's a whole different team. They're winning football games, but they're not the Colts of old. [The Jaguars] will hit you in the mouth; they're physical and can play in bad conditions. If there is any team to watch out for, it's Jacksonville."
And Jacksonville could be the team the Patriots see first in the postseason. Here's a quick primer on the NFL playoff format and how it affects New England's chances.
By earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and, after a bye through the first weekend of the postseason, they get to face the lowest-seeded remaining team on the weekend of Jan. 12-13.
The four division champions are seeded 1-4 based on overall record. The two wild-card teams are 5-6. In the first round, No. 3 plays No. 6 and No. 4 plays No. 5 while the top two get byes. Of course, there's no guarantee that things will go to form. Since the league went to the current playoff setup in 2002, lower seeds have won in the first round three times in the AFC: No. 6 Pittsburgh in 2005, No. 6 New York in 2004, and No. 5 Tennessee in 2003.
A look at this year's field:
No. 2 seed: This is Indianapolis, and the Colts wouldn't come to Foxborough until the AFC title game, although they could play a small role in determining who could be here in two weeks. At 13-2, the Colts could rest a few players against Tennessee tonight as the Titans try to earn the final playoff spot. More on that later.
No. 3 seed: The Chargers and Steelers are both 10-5 and have clinched their divisions. San Diego has a better record in the conference, so if both teams win today, the Chargers will be No. 3 and out of the running for a game at New England until the AFC title weekend. Pittsburgh can move up to No. 3 and delay a possible trip to New England if it wins at Baltimore and San Diego loses at Oakland.
Both the Steelers and Chargers have played at New England already this year, with similar results. San Diego lost, 38-14, in Week 2, and Pittsburgh lost, 34-13, in Week 14. The Chargers have been a bit more outspoken about wanting to get the No. 3 seed, and with the Raiders giving rookie quarterback JaMarcus Russell his first start, San Diego appears to have the edge. "I think it's pretty important to be the third seed and play the last team in," LaDainian Tomlinson said after San Diego's Christmas Eve win over Denver.
No. 4 seed: The Steelers probably will wind up in this slot and host Jacksonville in the first round in a rematch of a regular-season game two weeks ago when Jacksonville held on for a 29-22 win. This time, the Steelers will be without their rushing leader, Willie Parker, who broke his leg against the Rams Dec. 20.
No. 5 seed: This is the one that is locked in. Jacksonville is 11-4 and has won six of its last seven, the only blemish a 3-point loss at Indianapolis. Fred Taylor has rushed for 100 yards in five consecutive games and quarterback David Garrard has thrown just three interceptions this season.
The Jags are one wild-card team with a good shot to win in the first week. They have defeated both the Chargers and Steelers this year. If they pull off the upset, they would be the team in Foxborough unless the No. 6 seed also wins. The Patriots last played the Jaguars in December 2006, taking a 24-21 win on the road to clinch the AFC East. Jacksonville came to Foxborough for the playoffs after the 2005 season with a 12-4 record and was knocked out, 28-3.
No. 6 seed: The final wild-card spot won't be determined until tonight after the Tennessee-Indianapolis game. If the Titans beat the Colts, they become the last team in the AFC playoffs. If the Titans lose, then Cleveland will be the sixth seed. (OK, if the Titans and Colts tie, then Cleveland has to beat San Francisco to make the playoffs.)
Neither the Titans nor Browns would be expected to have a big chance to beat the No. 3 seed, although stranger things have happened. Tennessee had San Diego down earlier this year in Nashville only to fall in overtime. The Browns lost twice to the Steelers this year, getting blown out, 34-7, in the opener and falling, 31-28, in Week 10. Both teams are familiar to the Patriots. New England beat Cleveland, 34-17, in Foxborough in October, and the Patriots saw the Titans the last week of last season and again in the exhibition this year.
So it would appear that the winner of the No. 4-No. 5 game will be heading to Foxborough, and it would appear that the matchup would be Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, and it would appear that the Jaguars have the edge. But if there's one thing Patriots followers should know by now, it's that you can only take them one at a time, so it's not right to look ahead that far.
Whichever team winds up in Foxborough on the weekend of Jan. 12-13, one thing is a given. Bill Belichick will remind everyone that the opponent "is strong in all three phases of the game."
Christopher L. Gasper of the Globe staff contributed to this report.
© Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.
