Playing the ponies

New England Patriots (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4) 8:15 p.m., Channel 7. Line: Colts by 6

When the Patriots run

LaMont Jordan's return to practice gave the Patriots hope that their workhorse running back would wear down the Colts' defense. But yesterday Jordan was downgraded for the game and will not see any action because of a calf injury he suffered Oct. 5 against the 49ers. Without Jordan, the Colts can load up and tee off on Matt Cassel. Kevin Faulk will have to continue the admirable job he's done in Jordan's place but neither he nor BenJarvus Green-Ellis is built to handle 20-plus carries per outing. Faulk has good speed and deceptive quickness. He'll make his yards, but he can't do it alone. New England's interior three of center Dan Koppen and guards Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal need to use their athleticism to counterattack Indianapolis's active front seven. Linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett are the best run stuffers. Brackett has outstanding read-and-react skills and uses his tremendous speed to make plays from sideline to sideline. But Brackett lacks strength and can get engulfed by active guards. Session utilizes his outstanding instincts, speed, and leverage to shoot gaps and cut down runners. Sawed-off safety Bob Sanders returns tonight, and the man with the Hulk-like arms brings a swagger to this run defense that can't be underestimated.
Edge: Colts

When the Patriots pass

Matt Cassel gets up close and personal with Dwight Freeney, one of the scariest defensive ends in the league. Freeney is absolutely relentless, and even when he's forced wide, he'll sweep around and use his incredible closing burst to try to hammer the quarterback. Left tackle Matt Light will need to use all of his 6-foot-4-inch, 305-pound frame - not to mention every trick in the book - to keep Freeney from burying his quarterback. On the other side, pass-rushing specialist Robert Mathis relies on quickness and a bevy of moves (the swim and the spin are his favorites) to get to the quarterback. Look for tight ends Benjamin Watson and David Thomas to stay in line to help block the ends. Cassel will continue to get the ball to slot man extraordinaire Wes Welker. The rugged Welker could be in for a bigger night than usual after the Colts were forced to put starting corner Marlin Jackson on injured reserve this past week. Jackson often shadowed the slot receiver in nickel packages and his coverage will be missed. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden will draw Randy Moss, and while he lacks the speed to keep up with Moss deep, it's likely the Colts' up-front pressure will prevent Moss from going deep too often.
Edge: Colts

When the Colts run

This unit gets a shot in the arm with the return of Joseph Addai. A decisive runner with quick feet, the 5-foot-11-inch, 214-pound Addai can really wear a defense down. He has outstanding burst when getting through the first line of defense. The Colts love to run stretch plays, and Addai is very adept at taking the ball wide and accelerating down the sideline. Defensive backs usually need help to bring him down once he gets into the secondary. Addai has been injury-prone, most recently suffering from a sore hamstring. Backup Dominic Rhodes (5-9, 203) lacks size but is very quick and elusive. He does his best work late against tiring defenses. The interior of the Colts line has solid center Jeff Saturday sandwiched by raw guards Charlie Johnson and Daniel Federkeil. Saturday works hard to sustain blocks and rarely misses an assignment. He held his own against Tennessee's monster nose tackle Albert Haynesworth last week and faces another stiff test against Vince Wilfork, New England's big and quick nose man. Johnson (6-4, 305) and Federkeil (6-6, 290) have adequate size but lack quickness and will struggle against Richard Seymour and Ty Warren, who use their size and athleticism to stop the run. Inside linebackers Jerod Mayo and Tedy Bruschi can't overpursue or Addai and Rhodes will burn them on cutback moves.
Edge: Patriots

When the Colts pass

Peyton Manning is coming off two subpar performances, and his passes against Tennessee lacked zip, particularly on deep routes. Perhaps it's because of lingering effects of his summer knee surgeries; it appeared at times that Manning couldn't step into his throws with authority. That being said, he is still the most feared quarterback in the land. Manning is a brilliant game manager who almost always makes the right reads and decisions. New England's front seven (this means you, Richard Seymour) has to apply pressure on Manning to take pressure off the secondary. Manning has several favorable options tonight, notably Dallas Clark. A 6-3, 252-pound tight end, Clark has excellent focus and soft hands. Without Rodney Harrison around to deliver not-so-subtle reminders, Clark could have free rein in the flat. Old reliable Marvin Harrison is still around but relies more on guile and savvy than quickness and speed. Reggie Wayne is the real No. 1 receiver and he combines power, speed, and strong hands to make his yards. Anthony Gonzalez has developed into a reliable slot receiver. He has good size and good hands and can handle the physical game better than Harrison or Wayne.
Edge: Colts

Patriots injuries:
Out: RB LaMont Jordan (calf), CB Lewis Sanders (hamstring), RB Sammy Morris (knee), LB Shawn Crable (shin), WR Matthew Slater (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: LB Eric Alexander (hamstring), DE Jarvis Green (ankle), CB Ellis Hobbs (shoulder), T Nick Kaczur (ankle).

Colts injuries:
Out: WR Roy Hall (knee). QUESTIONABLE: RB Joseph Addai (hamstring), RB Clifton Dawson (concussion), CB Kelvin Hayden (hamstring, knee), CB Dante Hughes (ankle), LB Freddy Keiaho (knee), RB Dominic Rhodes (ankle), S Bob Sanders (ankle, knee), TE Tom Santi (shoulder), WR Reggie Wayne (knee).

Prediction: Colts 31, Patriots 27