Fishing trip

New England Patriots (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (6-4)

1 p.m., Channel 4; Line: Dolphins by 1

WHEN THE PATRIOTS RUN

Who needs a healthy tailback when your quarterback runs for 60 yards a game? Well, the Patriots do. They can't expect Matt Cassel to put up that kind of number every week, so getting Sammy Morris and/or LaMont Jordan back up to speed would be good. Morris returned last week but was hardly a factor. He needs to hit the ground running hard Sunday. A classic tweener, Morris is an oversized tailback/ undersized fullback with decent speed and deceptive explosiveness. He runs decisively, and sometimes that means getting knocked back, but when he guesses right and the hole is there, Morris can rip off big chunks of real estate. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has provided several booster shots this season but also was a nonfactor against the Jets once the Patriots fell behind early. Green-Ellis has fresh legs and runs with good balance and keeps his shoulders low. He can absorb hits and still move forward. Kevin Faulk uses his quick feet and excellent instincts to churn out yards in the running game. Often pigeonholed as a third-down back, Faulk has proven he can make plays in any situation. Fullback Heath Evans is a decent blocker who can move the pile in short-yardage situations. New England's interior linemen, center Dan Koppen (he's technically sound) and guards Logan Mankins (a relentless beast) and Stephen Neal (he has excellent leverage) have to clear out the middle and neutralize nose tackle Jason Ferguson (he works hard but lacks stamina) and middle linebackers Channing Crowder (a relentless pursuer with good speed) and Akin Ayodele (he can stack and shed quickly).
EDGE: Patriots

WHEN THE PATRIOTS PASS

Matt Cassel's biggest improvement over the last few weeks has been in the decision-making department. Cassel is not only making the right decisions (one interception in his last three games), he's making them faster. Cassel can't hesitate Sunday because the Dolphins can really get after the quarterback. Surly outside linebacker Joey Porter is the meanest neighborhood bully this side of Scott Farkas. He combines size, strength, and speed to embarrass blockers and terrorize quarterbacks. Tackles Matt Light and Nick Kaczur will need the tight ends to chip Porter and delay his path to the pocket. Linebacker/end hybrid Matt Roth is smart and athletic. He understands blocking schemes and always takes the quickest route to the QB. Cassel will continue to use the dependable hands of Wes Welker to sustain drives. Welker just keeps getting better. Teams know he's Option A but still can't stop him. Welker has elite quickness, great hands, and impressive toughness. As long as Welker is on the field, the Patriots have a chance to move the chains. Randy Moss will continue to see double-teams, but Cassel has to take chances deep to keep defenses honest. With Welker drawing the best corners (Sunday that's the speedy and wily Will Allen) and Moss drawing two defenders, it's imperative for another receiver to step up. The obvious choices are Jabar Gaffney (he has good instincts but drops too many catchable balls) and the maddeningly inconsistent Ben Watson, who has the size, speed, and power to dominate opponents but rarely does. Dolphins strong safety Yeremiah Bell lives to deliver thundering hits, while free safety Renaldo Hill is quick and smart.
EDGE: Dolphins

WHEN THE DOLPHINS RUN

Miami's strong and consistent offensive line is a big reason the team has gone from laughingstock to playoff contender in one season. Having two healthy, productive backs is another reason. Option No. 1 is Ronnie Brown, a 6-foot, 230-pound banger who runs with good speed and strength. Brown has good vision and runs low, allowing him to see creases develop and power through them. It's also why he's been so successful taking direct snaps out of the Wildcat offense. Option No. 2 is rejuvenated veteran Ricky Williams. The 5-foot-10-inch, 230-pound Williams is thriving in a reduced role. Williams is running with a lot of life in his legs, bouncing through holes and off tacklers. He is averaging about 10 carries a game, runs with good power, and can still hit the occasional home run. He has good field awareness, can move the chains, and most important, he's fumbled just once in his last eight games. Center Samson Satele is rugged and ornery, and his linemates feed off his enthusiasm. The 6-3, 300-pounder explodes out his stance, takes excellent angles, and delivers a solid initial wallop. He moves well in space and always finishes his blocks. Satele gave massive nose tackle Vince Wilfork fits in Week 3, and these two will be trashing each other all afternoon. The Patriots' front three have to tie up the blockers and give linebackers Jerod Mayo and Tedy Bruschi room to pursue Brown and Williams.
EDGE: Dolphins

WHEN THE DOLPHINS PASS

Chad Pennington has provided the Dolphins with leadership and stability, intangibles this franchise has been lacking at the quarterback position for a long time. Pennington won't often beat you with the long ball but he can dink and dunk with the best of them. Pennington is very smart, reads defenses quickly, and rarely gets rattled. He has tremendous poise in the pocket and is willing to take a hit to wait until the last second to deliver a ball. Miami's most productive receiver is Greg Camarillo. The 6-foot-1-inch, 190-pounder has excellent hands and toughness. He doesn't have breakaway speed but uses his quick feet to elude defenders. Ted Ginn Jr. has elite speed and good hands but his sloppy route-running has prevented him from becoming a consistent go-to guy. He has the afterburners to stretch the field, but with Pennington in the pocket, those opportunities will be few and far between. Tight end Anthony Fasano is underrated. He has good size (6-4, 255), soft hands, and tackle-breaking strength. Pennington loves this guy on third downs. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are terrific receivers out of the backfield. Pennington is protected by massive tackles Vernon Carey on the right and rookie Jake Long on the left.
EDGE: Dolphins

Prediction: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16