Top QBs can expect a hike

If Manning is worth an average of $15.2 million per season - making him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL - what might Tom Brady command?

It’s a question the Patriots and Brady don’t necessarily have to answer until the end of the 2010 season, when he would become an unrestricted free agent. Yet, based on the history between the sides, it’s a question that very well could be answered this year, because the Patriots have traditionally extended Brady with two years remaining.

Brady, who has sought a fair market deal in the past but has been willing to acquiesce some so top players could still be acquired, has never entered the final year of his contract without an extension.

If the sides are talking at this point, they’re keeping a good lid on the discussions.

Brady’s agent, Don Yee, declined comment when asked if there have been active negotiations on an extension. The Patriots’ policy is not to comment publicly on negotiations.

But surely both sides took note of Manning’s deal, because contract discussions are a lot like house hunting. When one house sells in the neighborhood (Manning), and there is a nicer house up the street (Brady) soon to be on the market, it provides a general range of where the discussions will start.

The last major contract adjustment for Brady came in May 2005 - which in total was a six-year, $60 million pact.

As part of that deal, Brady received a $14.5 million signing bonus and a $12 million option bonus. One of the key parts of the extension from Brady’s perspective was that the contract was front-loaded - he averaged $13.1 million per season over the first three years.

Strictly looking at 2009, Brady is due to earn $5 million in base salary. He also earned a $3 million roster bonus on the first day of the league year.

Given the evolving market for quarterbacks - Donovan McNabb signed a reported two-year, $24.5 million this offseason, Matt Cassel signed a six-year, $63 million deal in Kansas City, and Ben Roethlisberger put his signature on an eight-year, $102 million deal in March of 2008 - Brady’s deal is now outdated.

So for all the talk about nose tackle Vince Wilfork and a potential contract extension in New England, the urgency is also building for Brady, even with two years left on his deal.

From an overall NFL perspective, Brady, Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers are the next in line expected to cash in. The only curveball that could come into play is the league’s uncertain labor situation. While some teams have conducted business as usual, others have been reluctant to tie up big chunks of money in future years before knowing what the rules will be (e.g. will there be a salary cap?).

The Patriots seem to fall in the latter category, as their last big-money extension was defensive lineman Ty Warren’s in August 2007. All of the team’s free agent acquisitions this offseason were either one- or two-year deals.

Will that play a factor in talks with Brady?

There is no answer at this point, but a different part of the picture became clearer last week.

He has officially found his calling in NFL

What is your background in officiating?

“I started holding the chains when I was at Doherty High School. I had an injury to my knee as a sophomore, and had to give up football. My father and uncle both officiated so I decided to start officiating. I did Pop Warner, high school, Division 3, 2, 1-AA, and 1, and here I am.’’

So it was the injury that led you to officiating?

“Pretty much. I gave up my football playing days. I played baseball and traveled with my father to games, holding the chains when I had a chance. I developed a passion for it. In addition to my father and uncle, my brother is an official as well. So there are four Kings on the field. This is a proud moment for us.’’

Was making it to the NFL something you were always striving for?

“To begin with, I really wanted to do a major bowl game. At that point, you just keep striving and want to be the best you can be. I had NFL aspirations. I worked four years in [NFL] Europe, and eight years in the Arena [League] season, including what could possibly be the last Arena game - last year’s Arena Bowl. I was in the Big East for eight seasons as well. [NFL referee] Terry McAulay is my boss in the Big East, and with him and the guys I’ve met, they’ve helped me out and here I am.’’

How did you learn about the news?

“I teach at a middle school in Worcester, and my daughter happened to be in my class last year. I was teaching an eighth-grade math class with 30 students and [NFL director of officiating] Mike Pereira called on the inside line and said, ‘I’d like you to come work for me.’ I had my tears in my eyes. I was out of breath and all the kids were looking at me, especially my daughter. She didn’t know if someone had passed away - if it was sadness or joy. I hung up the phone and said, ‘I’m in the NFL.’ She came up in front of 30 eighth-graders, she’s 14 years old, and gave me a hug. We kind of cried together. It was late February and I went out that night and refereed a high school basketball game. I wasn’t sure if my feet were going to hit the ground.’’

What have you done since then to prepare for the 2009 season?

“We’ve been doing tests and film study, so [Wednesday] was the first time to be seen in public in the uniform. It’s been a long process of studying film, rules. We do that continually, but it was just nice to get on the field. It was the first time in probably 15 years that I hadn’t done college scrimmages in the spring or Arena Football in the spring. I’ve been inactive since December, so it was great to get back out here.’’

Any other thoughts before embarking on your first season?

“It’s a lot of stress on the family, and it’s great that we did it together.’’

Trend-spotting around the league in the area of rules and regulations

Holding penalties Concerns have been raised by some about the recent decline in offensive holding penalties since 2005. Offensive holding is considered one of the most difficult calls to make. In 2005, there were 880 offensive holding penalties. Last year, there were 587.

Why the decline?

One theory is that there isn’t a universal understanding on the rule. The Competition Committee has clarified it by identifying and categorizing the types of holding, in hopes that coaches, officials, and players have a clearer understanding.

Instant replay In the 2008 regular season, there were 315 replay reviews, the second-highest total in the last 10 years. There was a 37 percent reversal rate last season, tying for the highest figure since 1999.

There was a noticeable spike in the involvement of the replay assistant in the press box. Of the 315 reviews, 86 were initiated by the replay assistant, the highest total since 2002.

The most common play to be reviewed was the pass completed at the sideline/end line (57), followed by fumble/down by contact (46) and completed pass in the field of play (43).

Overtime While there was chatter this offseason about changing the rules, things remain status quo. But if statistics over the last two seasons continue to trend in the direction they are going, change could be coming.

In the last two seasons, both teams had possession of the ball at least once in overtime 56.7 percent of the time. The team winning the coin toss won 63.3 percent of the games, and won the game on its first possession 43.3 percent of the time. Of the 13 games won on the first possession, 12 were decided by field goals.

From 1974-93, when the kickoff was at the 35-yard line, not the 30-yard line, both teams had possession in 74.6 percent of the games. The winner of the coin toss and the loser each won 46.8 percent of the games (6.5 percent ended in ties), and the team winning the toss won the game on its first possession only 25.4 percent of the time.

Etc.

Mike Reiss can be reached at mreiss@globe.com; material from personal interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.