Patriots at Broncos

When the Patriots run

With 12-year veteran Fred Taylor, the Patriots’ most complete runner, on the shelf with an ankle injury, the team will need his understudies to step up. A key player will be 6-foot, 220-pound Sammy Morris. A very versatile and valuable player (how many NFLers can thrive at tailback, fullback, and wide receiver?), Morris is a slashing runner, and his ability to cut on a dime and make defenders miss make him a dangerous open-field threat. Morris has reliable hands and is effective on both screens and traditional patterns. Laurence Maroney still isn’t providing the pop the Patriots desire. Despite his tantalizing package of physical tools, Maroney continues to be an afterthought in this offense. He’s at his best (circa 2007) when he explodes off the snap and either hits a hole or creates one with his power. Maroney needs to lower his pad level and start delivering punishing runs like the ones his mentor, Corey Dillion, taught him. Kevin Faulk is another versatile performer. A tremendous option on screens, he will also run the ball out of the shotgun and almost always makes positive yardage. Broncos nose tackle Ronald Fields (6-2, 315) has tremendous strength and will occupy blockers. Middle linebackers D.J. Williams (this vicious hitter has blinding speed) and Andra Davis (a tough, aggressive tackler) make plays from sideline to sideline.
Edge: Broncos

When the Patriots pass

One of the biggest reasons for the Broncos’ defensive renaissance is their exceptional secondary. This group plays tight coverage, cutting off options and forcing quarterbacks to hold the ball longer than they would like. The coverage, combined with relentless pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and Mario Haggan, leads to sacks; the Broncos are second in the NFL with 15. The good news for the Patriots is that nobody scans the field quicker or makes better decisions under pressure than Tom Brady. Look for New England to employ quick outs and screens. Wes Welker will be invaluable in this strategy. Welker gets off the line in a hurry and is fearless going across the middle. Other quick-hit options are Julian Edelman, and tight ends Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker. When the Patriots want to stretch the field, they’ll go to Randy Moss and Sam Aiken. Moss continues to impress with his deceptive speed, good hands, and exceptional leaping ability. Aiken has good size and speed but is still a little raw. Cornerback Champ Bailey is the leader of the Denver secondary. He has the strength to jam receivers and the speed to stick with them downfield. Opposite corner Andre’ Goodman has the speed to turn and run with fleet receivers. Safeties Renaldo Hill (he’s fast but lacks a physical presence) and Brian Dawkins (a ballhawk with great range) are above average.
Edge: Patriots

When the Broncos run

With Correll Buckhalter out, rookie Knowshon Moreno is poised for his first start. Moreno is a very instinctive runner. He sees creases quickly and bursts through them with authority. Moreno is at his best attacking the middle, but he will occasionally stretch the field and turn the corner. He lacks elite speed but he did break off some long runs in the rugged Southeastern Conference the last two years. The top backup is LaMont Jordan. The ex-Patriot is a rugged runner with excellent vision. The 5-foot-10-inch, 242-pounder runs low and hard and will bust through arm tackles. The Broncos excel at zone blocking, and their interior three are among the best in the business. Center Casey Wiegmann (6-2, 285) is aggressive, athletic, and tough. He takes good angles and is adept at pulling and getting his hands on the linebackers. Left guard Ben Hamilton (6-4, 290) explodes out of his stance and delivers a good thump. Right guard Chris Kuper (6-4, 302) has excellent quickness for a man his size. He lacks strength but relies on his athleticism and balance to sustain his blocks. The Patriots’ hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense has done a solid job against the run. The front wall of nose man Vince Wilfork and ends Ty Warren and Jarvis Green clogs running lanes so linebackers Gary Guyton and Adalius Thomas can get their licks in.
Edge: Broncos

When the Broncos pass

Kyle Orton has made the Bronco faithful forget all about the departure of franchise quarterback Jay Cutler. Orton is the prototypical game manager. He isn’t asked to carry his team, rather he serves as a complementary piece whose main job is to safely get the ball into the hands of his team’s playmakers. When it comes to the passing game, Denver’s biggest playmaker is Brandon Marshall. A wide receiver trapped in a tight end’s body, the 6-foot-4-inch, 228-pound Marshall is fast and physical. Marshall has the strength to fight through jams at the line and the speed to dust most corners and all safeties. He has excellent concentration (even when venturing over the middle) and won’t drop many balls. Eddie Royal lacks size (he’s listed at a generous 5-10, 180) but makes up for it with spectacular speed and reliable hands. Brandon Stokley is the Broncos’ version of Wes Welker, doing his best work from the slot. Tight end Daniel Graham is a ruthless blocker, first and foremost. However, the 6-3, 257-pounder is a decent receiver, too, and is a demon in the red zone. Patriot corners Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs are playing at a high level. Safeties Brandon McGowan (doesn’t it seem like he’s everywhere?) and Brandon Meriweather (a big hitter whose recognition skills keep getting better) have solidified the secondary.
Edge: Patriots

Broncos' key player

Kyle Orton
A terrific athlete, Orton has a strong arm and can make all the throws. He's a streaky player, and when he gets into a groove, you can practically see his confidence grow.

Broncos' keys to victory

1. Stuff it: The defensive front three have to stand tall against a thinned New England running corps and force the visitors to go all pass all the time.
2. Hold it: Ball security is a must. Giving Tom Brady the ball more often than you have to is playing with fire.
3. Kick it: No foolish fourth-down decisions. If you’re within range, take the points; if you're not, punt it away.

Patriots' keys to victory

1. Sammy the Bull: Good things happen when Sammy Morris gets his hands on the ball. Line him up all over the fi eld and let him do his thing.
2. No Nose: Mammoth tackle Vince Wilfork has to beat his man off the snap and make plays in the backfield, whether it's dropping a runner or sacking Kyle Orton.
3. The Brain: Bill Belichick needs to introduce some subtle wrinkles into the offense. Say, something that Josh McDaniels may not be familiar with?

Prediction

Patriots 26, Broncos 17