This week’s picks (home team in caps):

Carolina (+13 1/2) over NEW ORLEANS: I realize New Orleans may be the best team in football, but this is too many points to give a team that, no matter its flaws, can run the ball. The Panthers have been victimized by several Jake Delhomme interceptions, but last week Carolina did what it does best: hand off to its running backs. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined to rush 40 times for 245 yards at Arizona, which had the league’s top run defense entering the game. I would understand if, say, St. Louis were on the other end of this spread, but Carolina has enough playmakers to keep this close enough. Risking $110 to win $100.

NEW ENGLAND (-10 1/2) over Miami: When Miami isn’t able to run its Wildcat offense effectively, what is it going to do? Last week the Dolphins beat the Jets by just 5 despite scoring a defensive touchdown, and two touchdowns on kickoff returns. The Jets were able to hang around by attacking the depleted Dolphins secondary, and I can only imagine what Randy Moss is going to accomplish against that group. Miami seems like the play after a big effort against New Orleans and that nice win over the Jets, but the flaws it displayed in those games - limited offense beyond the Wildcat, weak secondary - will be exploited by the Patriots. Risking $165 to win $150.

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Tennessee: The 49ers have lost three in a row - two on the road - but those last two were inspiring: a thrilling second-half comeback that fell short against Houston, and a bruising 18-14 loss to the Colts. Indy quarterback Peyton Manning had a big day statistically, but the 49ers’ pass rush harassed Manning and didn’t allow the Colts into the end zone until the fourth quarter. Tennessee is feeling good about itself after earning its first win, and the Titans’ ground attack was potent during that victory. But if that running game is stifled (the 49ers allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game), can Vince Young and Tennessee’s no-name wide receiver corps make enough plays? Risking $110 to win $100.

Last week: 0-3, minus $275. Season: 15-14, plus $404.