When the Patriots run

The Jets’ run defense lost a lot of its swagger (and beef) when chunky nose tackle Kris Jenkins was lost for the season with a knee injury. Manning the middle now is Sione Pouha, who has the bulk (6 feet 3 inches, 325 pounds) but lacks both the explosiveness to make plays in the backfield and the strength to occupy blockers and clog running lanes. Middle linebackers Bart Scott and David Harris will spearhead the run defense, and they’re well-qualified. Scott can manhandle lead blockers before blowing up ball carriers. Harris is quick, tough, and athletic. He has good recognition skills and always takes the most direct route to the ball. He doesn’t get the ink that some of his heralded teammates get, but Harris is among the most consistent Jet defenders. With Sammy Morris (and possibly Fred Taylor) nearing a return to action, this may be the last chance Laurence Maroney gets to prove he can consistently lead New England’s rushing attack. He needs to use his quick first step to blow through creases or his power to create them. Kevin Faulk will get some carries out of the shotgun. Faulk has quick feet and runs low and with good power. He will catch defenses off guard, but not for long.
EDGE: Jets

When the Patriots pass

It’s no secret that, other than Tom Brady, Wes Welker is the key to the Patriots offense. That will be especially evident today because of the Jets’ stout run defense and cornerback Darrelle Revis’s ability to shadow Randy Moss. Welker is highly productive because he has quick feet, runs precise routes, and gives maximum effort on every play. He also gets open quickly, has great hands, and is fearless. Moss struggled in Round 1 vs. the Jets - a game Welker missed. Julian Edelman had eight catches for 98 yards in Week 2 vs. the Jets and could be targeted often today as the Jets turn their attention to limiting Welker and Moss. Edelman is best suited for the slot and has yet to show he can be effective when lined up outside. Isaiah Stanback is an excellent athlete but he’s raw and is still learning to run sharp routes and beat physical defenders. Revis is an outstanding defender. He has good instincts, mirror skills, and ball skills. His confidence may be his best attribute, however. Lito Sheppard is a solid corner. He can run with receivers, tracks balls well, and has exceptional closing speed. Sheppard likes to play physical, is a bit of a gambler, and will get burned. Safety Kerry Rhodes has excellent range, delivers big hits, and excels at blitzing.
EDGE: Patriots

When the Jets run

Thomas Jones is running more like a 21-year-old than a 31-year-old. After a slow start to the season, he has responded to an increased workload brought on by Leon Washington’s season-ending injury. Jones, who has rushed for more than 100 yards (including a 200-yard effort) in three of his last four outings, is a slashing runner with good vision and excellent cutback skills. Rookie tailback Shonn Greene didn’t start at Iowa until his senior season but rushed for more than 100 yards in every game. A strong, aggressive runner, Greene lacks speed but will attack defenses by lowering his shoulder and delivering a nice pop at the end of his runs. Jones and Green will run behind a tough, versatile offensive line led by left guard Alan Faneca, one of the surliest customers in the game. Faneca knows all the tricks (especially the dirty ones) and rarely loses one-on-one battles. Right guard Brandon Moore has excellent leg strength and will bowl over defenders. Center Nick Mangold delivers a solid initial punch and has the vision and athleticism to pick up stunters and blitzers. Mangold will run into Vince Wilfork many, many times today. Middle linebacker Jerod Mayo has excellent recognition skills and uses his speed and power to fill gaps and hammer ball carriers.
EDGE: Jets

When the Jets pass

The Patriots secondary is spearheaded by hard-hitting safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan (the Malachi Crunch Bros. of the NFL). Meriweather is having a breakout season. He combines good instincts with power and range to make plays all over the field. McGowan has excellent recognition skills and toughness, and decent man-to-man cover skills. Corners Leigh Bodden (top-notch cover skills), Shawn Springs (versatile and consistent), Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite, and Darius Butler are New England’s best group in years. The secondary will show multiple looks in an effort to keep Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez off guard. The rookie has shown flashes but has yet to prove he can be a consistent leader. He’ll feel pressure on the outside from Derrick Burgess and Adalius Thomas and from the inside from quick tackle Mike Wright. Braylon Edwards is the Jets’ most physically gifted receiver. He lacks focus, however, and has never been a good route runner. Jerricho Cotchery is their most consistent receiver. He has decent size and deceptive speed and Sanchez looks to him often. Tight end Dustin Keller can be a weapon in the receiving game. He has good size and speed but lacks strength and is not a willing blocker. Both Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene are decent receivers out of the backfield. Active linebackers Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton have good presnap recognition and can snuff out screens.
EDGE: Patriots

Jets' key player

Mark Sanchez
The California kid with the big smile and big arm took Gotham by storm early on. Lately, however, he has shown why Pete Carroll had his doubts about whether Sanchez was ready for the NFL. Today he gets his first taste of Gillette Stadium.
How he beats you: With physical skills. Sanchez has excellent size and strength to go along with a powerful arm. He throws a nice deep ball and has decent touch on midrange and short passes.
How to shut him down: By keeping him guessing. He lacks experience (he started only one year at Southern Cal) and often looks confused. He too often tries to fit balls into places he has no right trying to.

Jets' keys to victory

1. Ground transportation: Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene need to do the legwork and run the ball to take the pressure off Mark Sanchez and keep the clock running.
2. Cabin pressure: Ends Shaun Ellis and Marques Douglas have to bring the heat and collapse the pocket to keep Tom Brady from posting yet another 300-yard outing.
3. Flight patterns: Put-up-or-shut-up time for immature receiver Braylon Edwards. He needs to use his impressive size, speed, and strength to become a consistent playmaker.

Patriots' keys to victory

1. Slot machines: Wes Welker and Julian Edelman need to work underneath to keep the chains moving and supplement the anemic running game.
2. Safety squeeze: The defensive backs have to blanket Jerricho Cotchery. Mark Sanchez loves to target him on third downs, and if he's covered, Sanchez will get nervous.
3. Decision time: It’s time to move on from the controversial call in Indianapolis. Coming out strong and posting a big division win will force the bloodthirsty bloggers and radio callers to find something new to debate.

Prediction

Patriots 32, Jets 10