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Revolution
Today, 3 p.m., Channel 4 (Line: Patriots by 7)
When the Patriots run
The emergence last week of running back Aaron Hernandez was a real shot in the arm for a unit that at times struggles mightily. Now, if he just hadn’t suffered a concussion on the last of his five rushes, he might get 20 carries today. He’ll probably get zero. So it’s all the more important for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley (if he can get out of the doghouse) to run tough and at least provide the threat of a rushing attack for some semblance of balance. Green-Ellis is a tough north-south runner who needs carries to develop a rhythm. The nifty burst to the hole he flashed last season has been missing this season. He needs to find it. Woodhead has great instincts and is starting to show the quickness that made him such a threat last year. The little guy (5 feet 8 inches, 195 pounds on his best day) will never be a feature back but he excels as a change-of-pace back and can slip through the slightest creases. Ridley came on like gangbusters late in the season - injecting fresh legs and energy - but fumbles in consecutive games may have cooked his goose for these playoffs. New England’s interior three will have its hands full with Baltimore’s massive front wall. Steady center Dan Connolly and rugged guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters will butt heads with humongous linemen Terrence Cody (the 6-4, 349-pounder is exceptionally strong), Haloti Ngata (the 6-4, 330-pounder is exceptionally quick and powerful) and Cory Redding (the 6-4, 300-pounder is exceptionally agile).Edge: Ravens
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady was at his surgical best against Denver in the divisional round. The man with the incredible football intelligence, exceptional vision, and picture-perfect mechanics will need another top-notch performance today. Fortunately for Brady, he has the weapons to keep the ferocious Ravens on their heels. Wes Welker is a demon underneath. He is quick off the line, runs precise routes, and catches 99.9 percent of the balls thrown to him. He lacks ideal speed, size, and strength but there is nobody Brady trusts more on third down. OK, maybe he trusts Rob Gronkowski just as much. Gronkowski (6 feet 6 inches, 265 pounds) is the standard-bearer for tight ends. He is a huge target with great hands and athleticism. Aaron Hernandez has the quickness, agility, and balance to create mismatches against slower linebackers and undersized defensive backs. He will not go down without a fight. Deion Branch has impressive quickness, decent speed, and good field awareness. Outside linebackers Terrell Suggs (he can stun blockers with his speed and strength) and Jarret Johnson (he has speed and a nonstop motor) are exceptional pass rushers and will test tackles Matt Light and Nate Solder. Intelligent and athletic safety Ed Reed - he’s in a league of his own - leads a secondary that includes above-average corners Lardarius Webb, Cary Williams, and Chris Carr.Edge: Patriots
When the Ravens run
Ray Rice is one of the most destructive forces in the NFL. The compact tailback (5 feet 8 inches, 212 pounds) has excellent vision, instincts, and athleticism. Rice runs with great power and a low center of gravity. He absorbs, deflects, and spins off tackles like a whirling dervish. He has tremendous cutback skills and will blast through arm tackles with ease. Rice is the rare player with the speed to get to the corner and break off long runs but who can also thrive as an inside runner who can hide among the big boys. He has deceptive speed and impressive acceleration in the open field. The man’s thick, muscular legs are always pumping. He is also quite proud of his biceps, and if he’s showing off to the crowd with any regularity, the Patriots are in trouble. Aging Ricky Williams has been a more-than-adequate backup. Once among the league’s elite, Williams (5-10, 230) has good vision and deceptive power and averaged 4.1 yards on 108 carries. Fullback Vonta Leach (all 6 feet, 260 pounds of him) is a powerful lead blocker. He had but 12 totes this season but converted a first down on nine of them. Veteran Matt Birk is a smart and athletic center who moves well and will pick off aggressive linebackers. Guards Ben Grubbs (athletic and strong) and Marshal Yanda (aggressive and smart) are solid. New England behemoths Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, and Brandon Deaderick have the strength and quickness to control the line and let linebackers Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, and Rob Ninkovich get clear shots at Rice & Co.Edge: Ravens
When the Ravens pass
Joe Flacco sure takes a lot of heat for a guy who has led his club to four straight playoff appearances. Seemingly built from the quarterback blueprint, the 6-foot-6-inch, 245-pounder has great size and a cannon arm. He throws beautiful spirals and can fit throws into the tightest of windows. He can power the ball down the field and has the arm strength to throw missiles when he is off-balance or on his back foot. That arm strength can get him in trouble because he will sometimes unleash passes he has no right throwing, and those often end up in the wrong hands. Flacco doesn’t have great touch (he throws everything hard) and has a tendency to lead receivers too much, particularly on screens and dumps. He will lock on to receivers and then force the ball rather than reading through his progressions. Ray Rice is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield and can destroy and/or demoralize defenses with his work on screens - particularly on third down. Anquan Boldin is a tough, physical, smooth receiver who bursts in and out of his cuts and has strong hands. He is not a burner but will make yards after the catch. Rookie Torrey Smith has blazing speed but drops a lot of catchable balls. He lacks strength and can get bumped out of his routes. New England’s secondary is playing its best football at the right time. The healthy returns of Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung can’t be understated.Edge: Ravens
RAVENS’ KEY PLAYER
One of the most emotional players in the history of the game, the 6-foot-1-inch, 250-pound 16-year veteran (not a typo) plays with high intensity and a mean streak. The linebacker gets named to a lot of Pro Bowls, but he’ll never be invited to “So You Think You Can Dance.’’
How he beats you: With intelligence and aggression. Lewis has good presnap recognition and instincts. He has lost a half-step but he still has above-average range and can deliver some of the most thunderous hits in the business.
How to shut him down: By matching his aggression. Guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters have to pick off Lewis and punish him on every play. When he gets frustrated (doesn’t happen often), he tends to lose focus and his play suffers.
RAVENS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
Ray Lewis
1. Be cool, Joe: Quarterback Joe Flacco can’t get flustered early. Call the plays he’s most comfortable with to get him into a rhythm. If that means handing it off to Ray Rice all day, so be it.
2. Worldwide Webb: Lardarius Webb is Baltimore’s best cover corner. Stick him in the slot and make Wes Welker work for every inch of real estate.
3. Outside shots: The pass rushers - particularly mouthy Terrell Suggs - have to pressure Tom Brady without blitzing. Sending extra bodies leaves fewer bodies in coverage, and that plays into Brady’s hands.
PATRIOTS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
1. High-speed: Go no-huddle for as long as you can. This strategy prevents the Ravens from subbing freely and is the best way to wear down the league’s best defense.
2. Masquerade party: Disguising coverages until the last possible moment can confuse Joe Flacco and cause indecisiveness and mistakes. His psyche is already fragile.
3. Branch office: The Ravens will pay special attention to Wes Welker and the Twin Terror tight ends. This will create opportunities for Deion Branch, and he needs to be ready to deliver the goods.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Ravens 15
