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Super Bowl prediction

Posted by Zuri Berry, Boston.com Staff  January 30, 2013 07:00 AM

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Little brother Jim Harbaugh should best his big brother on super Sunday. (Scott Halleran / Getty Images)

The universe became a little more screwy when little brother Harbaugh opened up as a favorite. It's like we have all been transported into the Gronkowski household.

Jim Harbaugh, little brother to John Harbaugh, leads the San Francisco 49ers into Super Bowl XLVII as 4-point favorites against big brother John's Baltimore Ravens. We all get to witness the Brothers Harbaugh out-grimace each other on the sideline as the 49ers and Ravens play out a title game that will be 10 times more about each team's defense than about the guy who is under center. Or wearing a headset.

It's the smash mouth defense of the twenty-teens, versus the old(er) smash mouth defense of the two thousands. It'll be peachy.

I'm 8-2 in the playoffs against the line and straight up. But neither of my Super Bowl picks are still playing. Sadly, the Patriots and Seahawks have more time to enjoy Mardi Gras and warm weather than prepare for a championship. So with one more pick to make, a year in which I went 169-83-1 during the regular season and picked the 49ers to win in 17 of their 18 contests, I have to go with little brother Jim and his 49ers once again.

Why? Simply put, the 49ers are loaded. From a deep and dependable offensive line, a secondary that is arguably tops in the NFL (despite a porous playoff stretch), and a linebacker corps that is second to none. Then add in an offense that is hitting its stride at the right time, quarterbacked by the speedy and hard-throwing Colin Kaepernick, and position players that are top notch throughout. The Ravens don't compare in that regard.

This is the 11th ranked offense versus the 16th ranked offense. The 3rd ranked defense versus the 17th ranked defense. The 4th best rushing team versus the 11th best rushing team. Only in the passing game do the Ravens take an edge. And even there, the pendulum could swing in the 49ers' favor with Kaepernick at quarterback. We don't know what kind of performance we'll get.

The X-factor here is whether or not the 49ers will show the same inconsistency they've shown in the past month. In Week 15, they went on a tear to beat the New England Patriots. The next week, they were in the dumps after getting blown out by the Seattle Seahawks. In each of their two playoff games, they allowed early leads against the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, the latter of which went up 17-0 before they woke up.

That's where this game is dangerous, where expectations and numbers and matchups don't relate to the stun of the bright lights and the inspiration as well as emotive draw that takes place with more than 100 million people watching. That's a place where the Ravens thrive, both as underdogs and as veterans of big games that have a new-found rallying cry in the soon-to-be retirement of Ray Lewis.

This is going to be close, but I don't think it's going to be as close as Baltimore (and maybe Patriots fans) want it to be.

The key matchup will be how the 49ers handle the Ravens' passing game, orchestrated by the deft Joe Flacco. Torrey Smith is a deep threat and combined with Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, the Ravens have a layered passing attack that requires attention up and down the field. Nickel corner Carlos Rodgers has to be solid against Boldin while he's in the slot and you'll likely see 49ers LB Patrick Willis bodied up against Pitta at times while he keeps an eye on fullback Vonta Leach coming out of the backfield. Who wins in these one-on-one matchups should very well determine the dynamic and outcome of the game. I happen to think the 49ers are favored here.

Straight up winner: 49ers
Against the spread: 49ers
Prediction: 49ers 35, Ravens 27

News, analysis and commentary from Boston.com's staff writers and contributors, including Zuri Berry and Erik Frenz.

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