It comes down to stopping the run

Boston Globe football writer Nick Cafardo answers your questions about the Patriots every Thursday. Click here to submit a question for next week ...

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Nick, which matchup do you think will be most critical on Sunday in Pittsburgh, Corey Dillon vs. the Steelers defense, Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley vs. the Patriots defense, Tom Brady vs. the Steelers defense, Ben Roethlisberger vs. the Pats defense or Bill Belichick vs. Bill Cowher?
Brian, Northbridge

A: Well, I think Bettis-Staley vs. the Patriots defense. I mean, that's what it comes down to. The Steelers are a one-dimensional team. They don't try to be anything else but a running team. They can lull you to sleep and occasionally take a shot down the field to Plaxico Burress as they did vs. the Patriots in the first meeting. They won't be frustrated too much in their quest unless the Patriots get off to a big lead. If the runners can be stopped, which means the Patriots are likely winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, then you make Big Ben beat you. I'm not saying he can't. He's won 15 straight, but it takes them out of what they like to do.

I grew up back east and love the Patriots. After seeing what they did to the Colts, do you still feel Pittsburgh will beat the Pats?
Mark, Lodi, Calif.

A: I'm not very good at predicting the outcome of games, but my mantra has been that I will pick the Patriots until they prove me wrong. I didn't feel well picking the Patriots last week after watching first-hand what Peyton Manning did to Denver, but they certainly proved me wrong. I'm picking the Patriots again, but I'm not going to sound too convincing. The Patriots have a lot going for them, including playing the Steelers the second time around and being able to learn from their mistakes in that Oct. 31 game. What I've heard from the players this week is that they're mighty embarrassed about how the Steelers outmuscled them in that game. That's one of the motivating factors that drives them, and when they put their minds and bodies toward the goal of not letting it happen again, they usually prevail. If Brady doesn't turn it over, it becomes a real slugfest. Then it comes down to which team can stop the running game. The way Corey Dillon has been carrying the ball, I can't envision stopping him cold, but neither can I foresee the Patriots shutting down the Steelers ground game. I do believe Brady is more capable of making a big play with his arm than Big Ben, and that's what it might come down to.

I'd like your opinion on things I think will be important in the upcoming AFC Championship game. In the past, it appeared the best way to slow down Jerome Bettis was to tackle him around the ankles and wait for help, yet nobody seems to be doing this. Why? Also, Ben Roethlisberger apparently has the ability to throw some serious fakes when he runs. Do you think the Pats will treat him more like Donovan McNabb this time around, keep him in the pocket, and if he does run, focus on where his hips go, not his fakes? He seems to turn 3-yard runs into 20-yard runs this way. Last, is the short pass working its way back into the offense to help keep the heat off Brady this week? Thanks!
Ed, Fresno, Calif.   Continued...