Some final thoughts on the Patriots' draft

After swinging seven trades, drafting 12 players, and acquiring two second-round picks in 2010, Belichick recalibrated the Patriots' roster and reallocated some of the team's assets in the NFL Draft.

My overall feelings on the draft are that the Patriots added some quality to their roster, and by acquiring two valuable second-round picks in 2010, they should feel good about what they did as they are once again set up for the future.

At the same time, I retain a slight bit of doubt about going the 12-pick route. Given their roster, I wonder if they would have been better served making fewer picks, and possibly eyeing one player in the first round who was sliding down the board -- assuming that a team was willing to make such a deal.

I almost wish we could fast-forward three years to see how it all turns out, because that's a good time barometer to judge a team's draft. Yet as Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly pointed out in his detailed post-draft analysis, "there is an art to knowing the value of talent, moving up and down the draft board to secure targets and acquire additional picks."

I think the Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL in mastering that art.

Let's get to the questions ...

Mike, in Bill Belichick's pre-draft interview on NFL Network, he indicated he agreed with Mike Mayock that the draft class was not especially strong. Perhaps one could also make the case that picking primarily in the second round meant they thought there was more depth and not an overwhelming pool up top that they needed to choose from. In your opinion, was this class not especially talented, was it a poor draft to fill in their specific needs, or did management just decide they needed to be cautious about handing out big money given pending contract situations?
Sonny Corlione

A: Sonny, I don't think this was a great overall draft, so I think teams had to search a bit harder for quality and value, or adjust their expectations. I don't think just because the Patriots traded out of the first round that they felt there wasn't a player worthy of being picked there. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that they tried to trade back into the late part of the first round, but couldn't swing a deal. Overall, I do think the economics were a factor in their decision-making.

Granted conventional wisdom states one cannot judge a draft until some amount of time (years) go by, but color me very uninspired by last weekend's draft. We had the resources to perform better than continuously trading down or to next year. It is hard to believe there was no value in the first round for the Patriots. Your take?
torka

A: I had the Patriots picking Darius Butler with the 23d overall selection in my mock draft. They ended up getting him at 41. So I think for me to say that it was uninspiring would be hypocritical. I think a big part of the draft is perception. I wonder if the Patriots did take Butler at 23, if things would be seen differently because he'd have the first-round tag next to his name. Overall, I thought the Patriots added some quality to their roster, and it's clear they had a plan and were efficient in executing it. I do wonder if they would have been better served making fewer picks and maybe trying to move up the board in the teens of the first round to target some of the quality that was dropping (e.g. Malcolm Jenkins, Robert Ayers). When I write that, I have this comment from Bill Belichick in mind, from last week: "I think if you go and look at the Hall of Fame players, you'll find a lot more in the first round than in the second round. Generally speaking, the higher the pick, the better the player. ... It's a question of quality."

Concerning the Ellis Hobbs trade, I'm not upset about trading him, but I would have thought he would bring more than two fifth-round picks. From Belichick's comments it sounds like they didn't decide he was expendable until they had made some of their picks. Could they have gotten more for him if they had shopped him earlier, or is that really all the value he was seen to have?
Johnny, Rutland, Vt.

A: Johnny, I don't think the Hobbs trade simply popped up at the last moment. My hunch is that once they drafted Butler, they had some time between Saturday night and Sunday morning to make some calls on Hobbs and gauge the interest of other clubs. I thought the two picks -- which were high in the round -- represented fair value. They were turned into a fourth for a player that I believe the Patriots felt very strongly about, offensive lineman Rich Ohrnberger. As for my opinion on the trade, I think there was a difference in how the Patriots viewed Hobbs and how Hobbs viewed himself. My assumption is that the Patriots knew this, figured there would be a problem ahead as Hobbs entered the final year of his contract ($2.54 million), and decided to eliminate it before it happened.

Ellis Hobbs was obviously a top flight kick returner. Who do you see as the odds-on favorite to replace him in that role? Any chance Laurence Maroney goes back to returning kicks? He did an excellent job as a rookie (28-yard average), and with Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk in the backfield, they can afford to use Maroney in the kicking game.
Richard H.

A: I'd like to see Maroney back there again, Richard, but it might be too risky from a health perspective. Matthew Slater could be the choice. Darius Butler might also get a look there.

The thing that worries me most about the Patriots selecting three defensive tackles in the draft (other than the team using three selections on one position) is that it seems to say they would consider letting Wilfork walk after the 2009 season, which is something I feel cannot happen. What are your thoughts?
Bryson, Boise, Idaho

A:Bryson, I don't think there is any question that Ron Brace is insurance for whatever happens regarding Vince Wilfork. I don't believe that this means they are letting Wilfork walk, but I think it shows they understand the importance of contingency plans. I had a few people around the league tell me they thought the Brace pick was excellent. After him, there was a pretty big drop-off when it came to finding that run-stuffing nose tackle. You're probably going down to Sammie Lee Hill (4 th round, Lions). I don't think the other two Patriots linemen are much of a factor when it comes to Wilfork. I see them winding up on the practice squad at this point.

I'd like to know which draft choice surprised you the most, Mike. For me, it was definitely Patrick Chung with the No. 34 pick. It's not the player in particular, just the notion of a strong safety at all, and certainly that high.
Jason

A:Jason, I thought they'd look to a safety in this draft and figured it would be in the second round because there were just a few top ones, so if you wanted one, you had to strike there. That No. 3 safety spot is a lot like the No. 3 receiver spot in today's NFL – almost like a starter. The most surprising pick to me was offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer in the second round. He wasn't on my radar in the pre-draft work I did.

I like the draft. I don't think we'll see much from those players drafted later than the third round. The only guy that might be good after the second round is the linebacker, Tyrone McKenzie. I actually wish the Pats traded more to the future; that way we can eventually get a high-impact pick like Jerod Mayo. Most of these guys will not make the roster. It might be why BB picks developmental guys in the lower picks and stashes them in the practice squad if they have potential. What do you think?
ProvMan

A:ProvMan, I wouldn't overlook third-round wide receiver Brandon Tate, who I think is probably best suited to spend this year on the sidelines as he recovers from knee surgery, and fourth-round offensive lineman Rich Ohrnberger. I don't think the Patriots trade Ellis Hobbs for two fifth-round picks, and then ship those picks to Baltimore to draft Ohrnberger if they aren't extremely high on him.

Mike, where is Brandon Tate in his rehab? Is there any chance he plays this year or is going to be put on injured reserve like Shawn Crable last year? I have watched this kid play and think he could be a steal if he returns healthy.
Mike

A: Mike, I think Tate still has a ways to go, although nothing has been decided at this time. When assessing the overall composition of the 53-man roster and how there aren't many spots available, it almost makes more sense to start him on the physically unable to perform list (he wouldn't count against the roster limit) and go from there.

Mike, what would you grade the Pats draft overall? I would give them a B. My second question is: Since we didn't draft a pass rush specialist, do you think BB is hoping to land Jason Taylor soon? Or is BB just content with the players we have on our roster. Shawn Crable could emerge into a nice outside linebacker this year.
Juan, Cicero, Ill.

A: I thought the Patriots were solid, Juan. The picks at 40 and 41 – Ron Brace and Darius Butler – make the draft based on the approach they took. I don't have the answer on the second part. I wrote on the outside linebackers after the draft in the Globe, and said this could be looked at as a vote of confidence for Crable and the others. Crable was a third-round draft choice last year who hasn't played in a game. He might as well be the team's 13th draft choice this year. He's currently working out in the offseason program. In that piece, Belichick shares some general thoughts on the outside linebacker class in this year's draft, and reading the tea leaves, I don't think he was enamored with the group.

Are you surprised at the lack of attention to linebacker in the draft after the trade of Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi's age?
Mike

A: Mike, I was a bit surprised at the lack of an outside linebacker, because of the perceived need and what analysts called one of the deepest group of players they've seen at the position this year. But my read on the situation is that not all outside linebackers fit all systems. The Patriots probably didn't see many fits for their system.

It still seems the Patriots may be weak at OLB. Do you think the Patriots would have any interest in OLB LeRoy Hill, since Seattle just removed the franchise tag?
Alan Alexander, Tucson, Az.

A: Alan, I don't see Hill as a fit in the Patriots' system. Looks to me like he'd be an inside linebacker in the 3-4.

Having no new OLBs on the roster after draft weekend is a bit of a surprise to me. There's talk of Jason Taylor if things don't work out for him in Miami, but I am wondering about Willie McGinest. How would the Pats view a one year deal for Willie to play 20 to 30 snaps a game? I would think he'd be a good guy to have around these untested OLBs we picked up in 2008. Can he still make plays? He sounded up for it on the NFL Network a couple weeks ago. Would the Pats be game?
Mike in DC

A: I think it would all depend on the circumstance, Mike. Right now, I don't see McGinest as part of their plans. I think they want to see what they have, especially in a guy like Shawn Crable. But if Crable and/or Vince Redd don't emerge, or if they run into an in-season injury situation like they did last year, I could see the outside possibility of looking toward McGinest.

Mike, why the concern and the disappointment over not getting a pass-rushing linebacker? My feeling is that the weak secondary has given the opposing quarterback a quick opportunity as our DBs in the past have not been able to cover the opposing receiver long enough.
MWG, North Hampton

A: No question, some of the struggles on third down last season (26th out of 32 teams) were a result of poor coverage. I think it's a combination of both – some coverage, some rush. Based on the overhaul at cornerback, it's clear to me what the coaching staff thought of the coverage aspect of things. I also thought Mike Vrabel had slowed in the pass-rush area (down from 12 sacks in 2007 to 4 in 2008), so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots see improvement in that area this year – whether it's a player on the roster (Crable?) or someone yet to sign.

Mike, I thought it was very odd that during the draft Tennessee would trade a 2010 second-round pick to the Pats for a 2009 third-round pick. Isn't Tennessee giving up greater value than they are receiving pick-wise?
Bert, Norwood

A: Bert, I think it's important to look at all factors. The Titans selected tight end Jared Cook with that pick, and they probably viewed him as a second-round talent on their board. So by trading away the future second-rounder, they get the player a year early and can develop him. In turn, they lose a little flexibility in next year's draft. I think it's just a matter of philosophy. In the end, the Titans were willing to sacrifice a higher pick in the future for getting the player now. I tend to not favor such an approach, but I don't think it's egregious of the Titans to make that deal.

Mike, I am intrigued by the selection of Ron Brace. Do you see Belichick using him and Wilfork together when they morph into their 4-3 run-stopping package?
Vince, London

A: Vincent, I could see a Wilfork/Brace tandem on short-yardage and goal-line situations, for sure. The challenge I see with going in that direction on more of a full-time basis is who are the defensive ends? In a 4-3, the ends become the edge setters, and so their ability to run and play a bit more in space becomes more important. That's why we've seen Richard Seymour move inside to tackle in the 4-3 in recent years, and Jarvis Green come on at end.

Hi Mike, I have a question about how the Pats scout and grade offensive linemen. Whenever they draft an OL, there seems to be zero correlation with the rankings of analysts and professional scouts opinions. Yet, the linemen they draft seem to work out well (Mankins, Koppen, etc...). I have to assume that there is something that Patriots scouts value more than others. Could you shed some light on what that might be? It seems that they like versatile, intelligent players with a bit of a mean streak, but is it as simple as that? Or is there something specific that the Pats look for and other scouts discount.
Brian, Boston

A: Good point here, Brian, as the Patriots drafted three offensive linemen who weren't even invited to the Combine. I think one aspect is how much Bill Belichick respects coach Dante Scarnecchia and his evaluation. Scarnecchia worked out each of the linemen himself. If I had to pinpoint what they look for, size is important at tackle. Intelligence and athleticism would also be high on the list.

Mike, I like the Sebastian Vollmer pick but was a bit surprised only because William Beatty from UConn was still on the board. Any thoughts?
Bertie, San Juan, P.R.

A: Just a hunch on that one, Bertie, but I think it was a size/power thing. Vollmer is a big guy. He can get under defenders and really drive them out of the way. I see Beatty a bit differently – light feet, a bit less powerful.

Mike, do you have any word on why we passed on Everette Brown from Florida State? This guy was my favorite player in the draft and would have been an absolute steal at 34 (13.5 sacks, 4.67 40, high character and smart). Why, after leading the NCAA in sacks, did he fall as far as he did? I loved our general approach to the draft however was very disappointed when we passed on Brown and Rey Maualuga in favor of Chung and Brace. Why did we forsake those talented linebackers for lower rated guys at positions of lesser need? Belichick is hands down the best coach/personnel guy in the league, but even he is fallible. Could he have missed out on some tremendous talent here?
Sean Ryan, New York

A:Sean, I think this all comes down to system-specific scouting and what fits for the Patriots' style. Brown, in their view, was probably too short to make the switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker. And they must have not viewed Maualuga as a three-down linebacker, or someone who would be consistent enough for them both on and off the field.

Mike, any idea who the Pats were trying to trade up to get at the top of the first round (at the eighth, ninth or 10th pick)? I'm guessing B.J. Raji. What are your thoughts?
RWF, Washington

A: Belichick said the team wasn't going to trade up there, but he did acknowledge there were preliminary-type discussions. I don't think it ever got to the formal offer stage, so to write that the Patriots were shot down (as I did over the weekend) was probably too harsh and a bit out of context. Hypothetically, let's say the talks escalated to the point that a deal was made, my hunch is that the Patriots would have looked at Malcolm Jenkins and B.J. Raji.

Mike, did you expect the Patriots to draft this many players, and realistically, how many of these rookies do you think will make the 53-man roster, and how many practice squad guys? Also, how did you think the AFC East drafted?
Jarrod, R.I.

A: Jarrod, I did not expect the Patriots to draft 12 players. I would estimate that six will make the club. A guy like receiver Brandon Tate (third round) could wind up on the PUP list and not count against the roster limit, and he could rehab and work toward 2010. As for the AFC East, I included some thoughts in this piece in Tuesday's Globe. I like the moves that the Bills, Dolphins and Jets made.

Do you think there may be a correlation between the likelihood of an uncapped year in 2010, with the Patriots strategy in terms of expiring contracts and accumulating second- and third-round picks? Here's the thought process: One of the rules that comes into play if 2010 is uncapped is that playoff teams cannot sign a free agent until they lose one. So perhaps the Pats intentionally created a situation where a lot of contracts expire after 2009 season, knowing that they would lose some, but also knowing that sets the stage for them to sign free agents that other playoff teams cannot sign (because the other playoff team didn't lose enough free agents). To prepare for the loss of several free agents, the Pats need to bring in a lot of players that they know can become starters or valuable contributors - hence the accumulation of second- and third-round picks, many of whom will be able to step in next year and contribute. If this really is the Pats' thought process, it means that they began planning this several years ago as they were signing players to contracts that expire in 2009. Perhaps another example of Belichick's genius in terms of team and roster management?
Walter, Shrewsbury

A: Walter, my answer is "yes." Thank you for clearly laying out the point. I think it's one reason the Kraft family and Bill Belichick are considered excellent at what they do. They're always thinking.

Last year, the Pats used a backup center for fullback duties. What are the chances of BB continuing to use backup offensive linesmen for the role? I think that it gives young players some experience in a real game while allowing them to develop.
Jim, Reading

A: Jim, I think we'll see that in a power package, and we could also see more of the tight end lining up in the backfield at times. The Patriots aren't a big two-back type of team, so they'll have to build that versatility into their roster.

Mike, what do you think went into to the decision to draft QB Julian Edelman out of Kent State in the seventh and then sign Brian Hoyer from Michigan State as a rookie free agent? Hoyer was much more highly regarded by the draft experts than Edelman. Edelman, at 5-feet-10-inches, probably doesn't have a lot of suitors. If BB wanted both to compete for a roster spot wouldn't it have made more sense to draft Hoyer and then sign Edelman? Do you think the Pats thought that they had a good relationship with Hoyer and would have a better chance in rookie free agency? If you were Hoyer and had multiple offers would you want to join the Pats with four other QBs on the roster?
Rob Black, Brookline

A: Rob, it looks to me that the Patriots are bringing Edelman in as an athlete, not as a quarterback. Kent State coach Doug Martin said in a newspaper report that the Patriots like Edelman as a slot receiver and kick returner. "I think they compare him to Wes Welker," Martin said.

Mike, what's your take on the Patriots use of Twitter during the draft? I hear some reporters in the press box were a little peeved that the Patriots were cutting out the "middle man" by communicating directly to their fan base instead of pushing out news through the usual media channels.
Andy, Brighton

A: Andy, I'd sum up my feelings this way: I think the Patriots are smart. I'd do the same thing if I was them. But I don't think it's cutting out the middle man – not at all. Twitter is a great resource for a short blurb and we even linked in to their "tweets" during our live chat on Boston.com. But tweets don't provide any in-depth commentary or context.