Packing the 'bag
Time for a few Pats' questions before we take a little time off
A timeout has been called.
With slow goings on the NFL calendar, and a chance to take some vacation time in the coming weeks, the next Patriots mailbag won't be published until July 15. From that point on, we'll be going full steam ahead throughout the 2008 season.
Patriots players are expected to report back to Gillette Stadium the week of July 21. The team has yet to publicly announce the starting date of training camp, but it's likely to be later in that week.
We'll get right to the questions this week. …
I'm very concerned about the offensive line. I knew the Giants were going to blitz heavily going into the Super Bowl, and still the Pats offense never adjusted until it was too late. I hope the Pats know that every team is going to look at that game and want to blitz like crazy. How are the Pats going to make the adjustment? How do they protect Brady? If he doesn't have time to throw or he gets hurt, it is going to be a very long season.
Marty, Troy, N.Y.
A: Marty, I remember listening to Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after Super Bowl XLII and he estimated that the defense only blitzed 30-35 percent of the time. I was surprised to hear that, because watching the game live, my first thought was "they really brought the house at Brady." Instead, the Giants successfully disguised their intentions and won more one-on-one battles up front. As for how the Patriots make the adjustment, I recall Bill Belichick making the point that the team has studied what happened in Super Bowl XLII because he figures other teams will try to do the same thing going forward. So clearly, the Patriots have not ignored what happened in the Super Bowl, and my feeling is that it won't be a recurring problem. From this perspective, if there is a concern with the line at this point, it is a potential suspension for Nick Kaczur and if starting right guard Stephen Neal can recover from the knee injury that knocked him out of Super Bowl XLII.
Mike, given the significant personnel losses and the common thread as to how the Patriots lost both the 2007 Super Bowl and the 2006 AFC Championship (no gas left in the tank of the defense on the final drive), how can the Patriots return to the top of the AFC this season?
Pat
A: There are a lot of layers to this answer, Pat, but I'll go with the short version. In the end, I think it comes down to making the play in the critical situation. In both games, the Patriots defense had a variety of chances to make one play that would have sealed the outcome, so I'd increase the focus on situation football - specifically on closing games. Something tells me the Patriots already do this, as few teams, if any, practice situational football as much as they do. I also believe the presence of new assistant Dom Capers could help create some dynamic rush packages, which could help the Patriots be more assertive in "closing" situations.
Mike, picking O'Connell in the third round seemed like a bit of a surprise. But with the potential talent lying within this kid and with grooming and tutelage by the two best in the game (Brady and Belichick), the future forecast is promising. I hope the Patriots aren't thinking about Matt Cassel or Matt Gutierrez as being the answer. With that in mind, does it appear O'Connell is a shoo-in for the team, and what are the chances they would carry three backups?
Mitch, Palm Harbor, Fla.
A: A couple of thoughts on this end, Mitch. I think this is harsh on Cassel and Gutierrez, and also underestimates how difficult it is to play the position. I think it is premature to give up on either player at this point, as they've both taken positive strides each season they've been with the club. It would not shock me if Cassel, who I think is a solid professional, has a very good preseason. Ditto for Gutierrez, who looked smooth last year in the preseason, albeit while operating with just a sliver of the playbook. As for O'Connell, I see no scenario in which he is not with the team. The Patriots did carry three backups in 2000 (John Friesz, Michael Bishop, Tom Brady), so there is precedent for it, although I think the team's preference would be three.
On the subject of Ty Law, I have seen him around the Foxboro area quite a bit this off-season (and at Celtics games), and it seems like an odd place for him to hang out considering he grew up in the Pittsburgh area. Is it premature for me to think that he is going to be suiting up for the Pats this season? He got his money from the Jets and Chiefs, why not play for respectable, but not high end money?
Dan, West Roxbury
A: Dan, I wouldn't read too much into Law's presence in the region. He has some strong relationships here from his playing days, and enjoys Boston. I do think he'd like to play for the Patriots, but at this point, the sides have not been able to come to an agreement. Law takes pride in being a good businessman when it comes to the financial side of the game, and right now, I think he is holding out for a better deal. For example, if a team sustains an injury to a starting cornerback in training camp, all of a sudden, the leverage tips a bit in Law's favor. So my sense is that he's in no rush to sign at this point.
Hey Mike, do you see the Pats signing anyone else? If so, what position do you think we need some depth, or experience?
Darryl, St. Petersburg, Fla.
A: Darryl, the positions that I've targeted for possible additions are offensive line, tight end and running back. The possibility of linebacker Junior Seau's return is also on the radar. The Patriots probably won't make a move on any player until closer to the start of training camp in late July.
Mike, what makes you think that this year's below-the-radar free agent signings (Bryant, Williams, Hobson) are going to fare better than the (Starks, Brown, Beisel) class from a few years back? Do you think there is more mid-range talent on the market because of the salary cap?
Jay
A: Jay, I can specifically recall myself touting how Monty Beisel was a Patriots-type player, a strong special teamer who was entering the prime years of his career. Looks like I misfired on that projection. But the one thing I would say on the difference between 2005 and 2008 is that Beisel and Chad Brown were thrust into an unexpected situation when Ted Johnson retired on the eve of training camp. Had I known that going in, perhaps I would have tempered my thoughts. In the end, I do think the 2008 additions are more talented than the players added in 2005, and I also think a key part of it is that the coaches have a specific idea of how they'll fit into the system, and at this point, there hasn't been a surprise retirement that will alter that plan. In 2005, plans had to change and a few of the players were thrust into roles that weren't part of the initial projection. I don't think the salary cap has much to do with the talent being available.
Mike, with the Pats a little thin at tight end, what are the odds that they would try to strike a deal for Jeremy Shockey or the Jets' Chris Baker, who appears unhappy?
Peter
A: I don't see Shockey as a target, Peter, and I can't imagine the Patriots and Jets talking to each other on a possible trade for any player. While anything is possible, I'd rate both of these scenarios as major longshots.
Given the fact the Pats D is very complicated and it seems like it takes about 3 years for young players to contribute at linebacker, do you feel Mayo and Crable can effectively contribute while limiting the big plays that come from missing assignments?
Lance
A: Lance, when I was writing last week on Eric Alexander and Pierre Woods, I made the point that it takes time to develop at linebacker in this system - and one thing I should have mentioned is that certain players will develop faster because of their talent level. Both Alexander and Woods entered the NFL with a longer way to go than Mayo and Crable. I mention that because I don't want to sound like a hypocrite when I say that Mayo, the team's first-round pick, will certainly contribute this year. I envision the Patriots bringing him along and utilizing him in a way that he can focus on specific elements of the playbook, building a strong base that grows over the course of the year. I'm less sure on Crable, but I could envision him being part of specific packages, mainly those in passing situations.
Can you break down the linebacker position a little? We seem to have a bunch of new and exciting prospects at LB as well as some veterans who will no doubt command most of the playing time, but we also have guys like Woods and Alexander who have been OK, but never really good enough to start. I know it's too early to say for sure, but who do you think stays and who gets cut? If they are really impressed with guys like Guyton and Crable, and chance they stay on and a guy like Alexander gets the ax? How many guys do we have and how many can we keep?
Rick, Lowell
A: For perspective, Rick, consider that the Patriots kept eight linebackers coming out of training camp last year. I see that number increasing to nine, maybe 10, this year. Thinking along the lines of a base 3-4 defense, here is how I'd break it down at the top of the depth chart:
Inside linebackers: Tedy Bruschi, Victor Hobson, Jerod Mayo
Outside linebackers: Adalius Thomas, Mike Vrabel, Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable
You also have the question of whether inside linebacker Junior Seau returns. Let's say he does, that's eight top linebackers right there, leaving the likes of Eric Alexander, Gary Guyton, Larry Izzo, Vince Redd and Bo Ruud to scrap for what is probably 1-2 spots.
Mike, following up from last week, I just don't see Pierre Woods or Eric Alexander ever hacking it at linebacker. I agree that Woods has shown a lot of improvement especially on special teams. But Alexander, forget about it. That's why they picked up five linebackers this year. They don't have faith in either one of them. Your thoughts?
Mark, Sunderland
A: Fair enough, Mark, but I'm going to stick with my thoughts on Woods. I still think he has a chance to emerge as a playing-time contributor at linebacker. As for Alexander, I would agree if we're only talking about the 3-4 base defense. I don't see him being a contributor in that alignment, but I could see him possibly fitting into some 4-3 looks or nickel/dime packages, so I'd leave that possibility open.
It was pretty evident that after Colvin got hurt, that the Pats missed his pass rushing skills. Do you see any of the rookies filling that void?
Kevin, Hoosick Falls, N.Y.
A: More than anything, Kevin, I see Adalius Thomas filling that void. I expect Thomas to play in more of a rushing role in 2008 than he did in 2007, when he was more of a run-stuffer. The additions of Victor Hobson and Jerod Mayo at inside linebacker should give Thomas a chance to create more havoc.
What are the chances Kyle Eckel will be on the team next year? It seems like his only contribution can come from special teams, and the Patriots signed and drafted a few special teams guys in the offseason. Given how vulnerable they were after Sammy Morris went down last year, wouldn't it make more sense to bring in another capable runner as a back-up and leave the special teams contributions to others?
Steve, Chelmsford
A: At this point, Steve, I'd say Eckel is a bubble-type player. In terms of bringing in a capable runner as a backup, I find it's probably the easiest void to fill during the season as circumstances dictate. The first thought that popped into my head was 2005, when the Patriots were ravaged by injuries, and Heath Evans was signed and rushing for 84 yards on 13 carries in his debut, before following it up with a 16-carry, 74-yard performance. From my perspective, grooming players like Eckel at this point in time is smart business. Inevitably, there will be some injuries along the way, and even if Eckel doesn't make the roster coming out of training camp, it doesn't mean he won't find his way onto the club at some point during the season. The last point I'd make is that when you're talking about a fourth or fifth running back, contributions on special teams are huge. I know it sounds crazy, but I bet if you asked Bill Belichick who fits the team better at this point - Eckel or Shaun Alexander - he wouldn't hesitate to say Eckel. He'd probably make the point that with Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk, he's not looking for another player to carry or catch the ball. He wants a monster on special teams, or a strong blocker, and that's why players like Evans and Eckel have succeeded here in the role of a fourth/fifth running back.
I'm curious about the practice of keeping players on the roster who only play on special teams. How many players is it normal to keep? From last year, I can think of several (Larry Izzo, Kelley Washington, Eric Alexander) who weren't even really position backups. They've now added Sam Aiken and Matthew Slater. What are your thoughts on tying up roster spots with special teamers that could go to developmental players that could turn into valuable starters? Why keep a Larry Izzo and give up quickly on your 4th round draft choice (Kareem Brown)?
Gick
A: I'm not sure on this specifically, Gick, but my hunch is that the Patriots devote more roster spots to special teams-only players than most clubs. Obviously, there is a balance that all teams try to strike, because special teams are a crucial part of the game. Consider these Patriots 2007 numbers when it comes to coverage and return teams:
Kickoff returns - 55
Kickoff returns by the opposition - 92
Punts -- 45
Punts by opposition - 76
The other point I'd make is that sometimes it can work the other way - that special teams performance can help a young player make a roster over an older player. David Givens comes to mind in 2002. He was a seventh-round pick, and if he didn't embrace his role in the kicking game, he probably wouldn't have made the roster that first year. That gave him a chance to develop as a receiver.
Hey Mike, I was wondering if there is any equivalent to "MLBTV" (the internet source to watch MLB games) for the NFL? I'm going to be in LA for school and I was hoping there is some way to watch Patriots games outside of buying NFL Sunday Ticket.
Imran, Waltham
A: I'm not aware of anything, Imran, but I'm going to ask the readers to help out because it's possible I'm missing something. When I return from vacation and publish the next mailbag July 15, I hope to have some type of answer for you.
Are the Pats looking at anyone in the upcoming supplemental draft? What players are expected to be available in the draft?
Ethan
A: I haven't done much research/work on the supplemental draft, Ethan, so unfortunately I can't be of much help here. I know it's dangerous to make a prediction like this, but I think it's safe to say the Patriots won't be interested. They haven't made a supplemental draft pick in the Bill Belichick/Scott Pioli regime. The Patriots' last supplemental pick was defensive back J'Juan Cherry in 1999 (picked by Bobby Grier). I think part of that is that they like to keep their chips. Another part of it is that the player basically misses three months of preparation, and is way behind. Also, because the supplemental draft is for players who initially decided to return to school but whose situations unexpectedly changed, there are often character questions involved with the prospects.
Note: The next Patriots mailbag will be published July 15.
