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Brady and beyond

Some early story lines for the Patriots

Quarterback Tom Brady was the center of attention as he came onto the field for the start of the Patriots first exhibition game. But he's not the only focus of this week's mailbag.
By Mike Reiss
Globe Staff / August 18, 2009

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After one preseason game, here are some of the early story lines for the Patriots:

1) The four-man line. Are we seeing a shift in defensive philosophy?

2) Trade possibilities. After dealing Le Kevin Smith, who might be next?

3) Receivers. Could Terrence Nunn be a sleeper, and is Joey Galloway going to be a difference-maker?

4) Tom Brady. Based on how he looked in the preseason opener, what next?

5) The backup QBs. Is it Andrew Walter or Kevin O'Connell?

With another preseason game set for Thursday against the Bengals, let's get right to the questions. …

Could this 4-3 switch be more permanent then we think? It would seem to be this move is an acknowledgement that the NFL is pure and simply a passing league now. If the Pats do move to a 4-3, permanently or on downs they think are passing, they seem to be putting more of an emphasis on pressure vs. the previous coverage philosophy with the "Fairbanks-Bullough" 3-4 defense -- where the basic principle is to take away the run and the deep ball forcing the opponent to out-execute you down the field. Maybe this has affected their approach to next year's free agents Wilfork and Seymour -- since in a 4-3 they are basically the same player as Warren.
Nikos

A: Nikos, I do think we'll see more four-man line this year than we did last year. At the same time, I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say they are putting more of an emphasis on pressure because some of the techniques that they are playing in a four-man line are the same as it was a three-man line. I think the Patriots have one of the deepest defensive lines in the NFL, and the four-man line helps them get more of those players on the field.

I guess Ron Brace and Myron Pryor must have impressed enough to allow the trade of Le Kevin Smith. Do you think that only getting a 5th for Le Kevin (plus the 7th rounder we gave to the Broncos) was a bit of a favor to Josh McDaniels (not unlike tossing in Mike Vrabel to Pioli in Kansas City)?
Bagoon, Los Osos, Calif.

A: Bagoon, I thought it was fair value for Le Kevin Smith, who played in 18 percent of the snaps last season and had a career-high 21 tackles. As I made a 53-man roster projection this year, I didn't have Smith on the roster. At the same time, I do think Smith is worthy of being on a roster in the right situation, and believe he'll be a good fit in Denver. So to get a fifth-rounder to meet the considerations in the Raiders deal, I thought that was fair for the Patriots, and also believed the Broncos got fair value in a player who knows their system and should be on their 45-man game-day roster. I don't believe Bill Belichick does favors for anyone.

I hear good things about Terrence Nunn. Any way we can keep him? If he goes on waivers he'll end up elsewhere. Maybe the Patriots could trade Aiken or Lewis to open a spot for him.
Harold, Washington, D.C.

A: Harold, I've seen Nunn make some excellent catches in practice, so I wouldn't completely rule this out. Yet at this time, I still think Nunn will find a home on the practice squad. I'm not convinced that another team will claim him, and I'm not ready to give up on players like Galloway, Lewis and especially Aiken because of his special teams value. Let's see if it changes over the next few preseason games because a catch or two like the ones Nunn has been making in practice could alter the outlook.

I was not impressed by Joey Galloway in the preseason game against the Eagles. Does he still have the competitive edge as well as the skills needed to be effective? And, it looks like Julian Edelman proved he can play in the NFL, so my question is: Do you think that the Pats will feature Edelman in a three-wide or will he only get a chance to play receiver when Welker or Galloway need a breather? Do you think Belichick will design plays to use Edelman as a RB or even have him throwing the ball on an option play?
Otis, Boston

A: Otis, I wouldn't give up on Galloway just yet, although I think it's been clear he's yet to consistently be on the same page with Tom Brady. I still see NFL-caliber skills with Galloway and if the season was starting today, I'd put him on the roster. My sense, however, is that public perception has shifted a bit from late July when there was overwhelming support for him. As for Edelman, I think you'll see him on the 45-man game-day roster doing a little bit of everything - catching passes, returning punts, maybe even some other unexpected stuff. I wouldn't rule anything out with him, and the coaching staff will find creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

Mike, do you see Julian Edelman's skill set similar to that of Wes Welker's? Or does he have the size and ability to line up on the outside as a conventional No. 2 receiver? Do you envision Edelman and Welker ever being on the field at the same time on offense (assuming he makes the roster)?
Tony

A: Tony, I don't see Edelman as a conventional No. 2 receiver right now. I'd list him No. 4 on the depth chart because I think he's a natural in the four-receiver package (imagine him and Welker working the slot on both sides) or as the pure backup to Welker. But if the No. 1 or 2 options were hurt, I could see someone like Greg Lewis (No. 5) possibly leapfrogging Edelman in a two-receiver set.

Mike, two teams, Philadelphia & Cincinnati, desperately need a tight end. The Pats could grab at least a 4th or 5th round pick if they trade one of their 4 tight ends. Do you think it's a possibility?
Steve Foster

A: I think this is a great point, Steve, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots try to showcase one of their tight ends in the next few preseason games. I think Alex Smith has struggled a bit, and I'm not sure if it's because he's learning a new system, but if the Patriots could recoup the fifth rounder they traded for him, I could envision pulling the trigger on that. He's on the books for $1.5 million, which is a lot based on his projected role.

In the preseason opener against the Eagles, we did not see Kevin O'Connell replace Tom Brady. Does the coaching staff not think of O'Connell as the No. 2?
Uhgar, Natick

A: I think we'll see more of O'Connell on Thursday night against the Bengals. My feeling from the opener was that the team wanted to see more of Andrew Walter so they could evaluate him in a short time period to get a better feel for him. I think they liked what they saw for the most part. Now, I expect O'Connell to get his chance.

Hey Mike, I noticed in the game against the Eagles that Brady had two passes that he looked hesitant about stepping into, the first-drive third-down pass and the interception pass to Moss. They looked like he was stepping away and was off balance due to the on-coming defensive pressure. Did you feel he was a bit tentative with those two passes and have you heard any other analyst feel he was at times a bit shy when the pressure was coming?
Dean, Methuen

A: Dean, I'd agree with that analysis, especially on the long pass to Moss. I didn't expect him to come out and not have those issues in the preseason, so I'm keeping the performance in context. Overall, I thought Brady's performance was encouraging.

Mike, with the addition of Michael Vick to the Eagles, there is a good chance AJ Feeley will be released. Do you think the Patriots would look at signing him?
Ric

A: Ric, Feeley has hurt the Patriots in the past and we know that players who do that sometimes have a tendency to wind up in New England (e.g. Wes Welker). But in this case, I think the Patriots would be more inclined to stick with what they have and keep a player like Feeley on their emergency list, assuming he didn't sign elsewhere.

Mike, I was surprised in the first preseason game at how badly the defense was gashed in the running game. Is this something that can be fixed?
Joseph K.

A: Joseph, I think the Patriots have traditionally had a solid run defense under Bill Belichick, with a few exceptions. Since it was the first preseason game, I think the team is still working through some kinks. I think they'll be better when the games count.

Hi Mike, in the first preseason game, it looked as if Maroney was always working against defenses expecting the run. Is having Maroney in the game a giveaway to defenses that the Pats are going to run? Do we have a figure for the pass/rush ratio when Maroney is in the game, versus when any of the other backs are in the game?
Matt

A: For most preseason games, I think teams have a limited script of plays, so I wouldn't read too much into it Matt. I don't have a pass/rush ratio for when Maroney was in games last year. In terms of Maroney's performance in the preseason opener, I thought he got the yardage that was available to him and didn't display the hesitation that we've seen in the past. I know some people have been hard on Maroney based on the preseason opener, but I didn't think it was that bad of a performance.

Hey Mike, with all the focus so far being on Brady's return, the wide receivers, and the defense, I haven't seen much about the running backs. I don't recall much being written about them, who's shining, who's struggling, things like that. Can you let us know what you've seen so far? I'm curious because I haven't read much about Fred Taylor and how he's doing.
Paul R.

A: Paul, my feeling is that Taylor has looked sharp - more as a runner than a pass-catcher -- but it's still hard to tell without full-speed contact. Taylor didn't play in the preseason opener, so hopefully we get a look at him Thursday against the Bengals. I think Maroney has had a solid camp, as have Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Sammy Morris has been in and out of practices a bit, but when on the field, his patience and ability to hit the hole have been evident. I think this is a solid group.

Hey Mike, this Chris Taylor signing is really interesting. Perhaps Master Bill is simply taking a flyer on an available talent, creating more competition at RB, with no preconceived notions of Taylor's possible impact on the roster. But with the regular season less than a month away, it seems rather unlikely that the Pats would sign a player unless they think he's capable of filling a felt need. In other words, barring injury, Chris Taylor's chances of making the 53 man roster seem pretty good. Do you agree?
Mark H., Champaign, Ill.

A: I look at it a little differently, Mark. The Patriots were carrying just five running backs when the league average is about seven per club. And with Sammy Morris banged up, it further thins the depth. So I think a guy like Chris Taylor can lessen the load on the top backs in the preseason and absorb some of the hits that ball-carriers take. I don't see him making the club.

Hi Mike, what is the word on Fred Taylor? He didn't play in the opener, and no mention was made. Did I miss something?
Jim

A: Jim, Taylor is healthy and it was simply a coach's decision. I wouldn't read too much into it. My sense is that Belichick knows what Taylor can do and while he'd like to get him a few carries this preseason, there is no major reason to push too hard.

Mike, your colleague Christopher Gasper had a piece on Monday about Bruschi's uncertain role on the team this year. Do you feel that he could be one of those surprising roster cuts this year? I'm not sure how much he has left in the tank.
Mo, Watertown

A: Mo, I don't think the Patriots would ever cut Bruschi (he's meant too much to the franchise), but if he wasn't part of their plans, I could see them setting up a way to have him gracefully exit in the form of a retirement, or put him on the Junior Seau graduation plan. One of the challenges I see for Bruschi is that if the team does not play a 3-4, he becomes a backup. Usually teams want their backups to have some added value on special teams, and I don't see Bruschi being much of a difference-maker there at this point. This will be something to watch.

Myron Pryor started, not Ron Brace? What's with that? Anything you have seen from practices that would indicate why the Pats went this way? Do you have a breakdown of how many plays each of these two players played - especially in the 1st half with the starters?
Walter

A: It was about an even split in the first half, Walter, so I wouldn't look at who started. Both played a lot, and did well. Pryor showed some burst in his pass rush, while Brace got some push and was also strong at the line of scrimmage. Overall, it was impressive with both rookies, regardless of who started. Belichick really praised Brace on Monday, saying: "I thought he played well. He handled himself well, maybe a little bit better in the game than in some of the practice opportunities. He certainly has a long way to go, like all the rookies do, but I thought he was strong at the point of attack. He had some opportunities in the passing game where he was able to get some penetration in the pocket, was in on a couple tackles, made a play in short yardage. More importantly, he played his technique well and was pretty stout at the line of scrimmage."

Hi Mike, I noticed that Rob Ninkovich seemed like he was consistently making plays. What are your thoughts about him making the roster?
Leslie

A: Leslie, I'd put Ninkovich on the outside looking in at this point. While he certainly shows some quickness in his rush, I don't see him making the cut unless there is a significant injury in front of him, or he gets more involved as a snapper. I think Ninkovich is the type of player who could resurface during the season if there was an injury and he was still available.

Mike, how is Ray Ventrone looking in camp? He's been a great special teams player the past two seasons. Is he still one of the first gunners down the field on every kickoff? Remember that awesome tackle he made on the Giants' last kick return in the Super Bowl? Think he makes the team? Jon, New York

A: Jon, Ventrone is not only one of the hardest working Patriots players, but also one of the nicest guys in the locker room. He's the type of guy I pull for. At this point, though, I think he's facing a major uphill battle. I don't see him on a lot of the top special teams units, and that receiver position is especially crowded. In my latest roster projection, he didn't make the cut.

Mike, in your Sunday Notes section of the Globe you wrote an interesting piece on Robert Kraft's gamble in terms of delaying the signing of extensions for current players. What caught my eye was the sheer number of players with contracts set to expire after the upcoming season and/or 2010. Obviously a lot is currently up in the air, but I'm a little nervous about the possibility of large-scale roster turnover. Are my concerns legitimate?
Andy, Brighton

A: Andy, I'd start by saying that the Patriots have some of the smartest people in the NFL running their football operation. At the same time, what I was pointing out was the risk involved in their flexibility-based strategy - by waiting on some potential extensions, they could lose some of their key players on the open market. Is this reason for concern? I'm not sure I'd go that far, but I think it's only fair to point out the pros and cons of the approach.

Hey Mike, just wondering if you could provide a list of the various dates for teams to make cuts.
Adam, Burlington

A: Teams must trim to a maximum of 75 players by September 1. The next cut, to 53 players, must be made by September 5.

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