Applying the franchise tag would pay Cassel the average of the top five players at his position, and limit his ability to fully experience the free agent market because teams signing him would have to surrender two first-round draft choices. The Patriots could keep Cassel in this scenario, or trade him to an interested team. Part of the reason the Patriots would avoid this is committing 28 percent of their $123 million salary cap to two quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Matt Cassel), which at least temporarily could handcuff them in making other moves.

Odds of happening: 60 percent.