Applying the transition tag would pay Cassel the average of the top 10 players at the position, but teams could still sign him away from the Patriots. The Patriots would have the right to match any offer, but that's hardly leverage because with poison pills, teams can structure offers that are impossible to match (e.g. salary triples if he's on New England's roster for 1 game). The Patriots would receive no compensation if they lose Cassel in this scenario.

Odds of happening: 5 percent.