Sports

When the Patriots run

EDGE: Ravens
There’s no shortage of candidates to lead the ground attack as New England has four healthy running backs (let’s just assume BenJarvis Green-Ellis won’t be in the mix). Laurence Maroney has been the starter for the majority of the season and despite his recent ball-security issuses, he is best-suited to be the workhorse. Maroney is a powerfully built 5-foot-11-inch, 220-pound thumper with impressive strength and speed. He lacks first-step explosiveness, however, and too often makes bad reads and poor decisions. He’s a slow starter, but once he finds his rhythm (it usually takes a decent run and/or a solid pop), you can almost see his confidence soar. Fred Taylor gives the Patriots a reliable veteran backup with fresh legs. Once one of the NFL’s best, Taylor has a nifty package of speed, balance, and agility. He stops and starts quickly and changes directions fluidly. He will break tackles and has superior acceleration, especially when he smells the end zone. Kevin Faulk will get some carries but he could be used more in a receiving role (part-time slot man?). Faulk, who gets his carries out of the shotgun, has very quick feet with good vision and patience. He can make people miss in the open field but lacks high-end speed and will take some big hits. Sammy Morris has good instincts and shows flashes, but his lack of quickness and speed makes him vulnerable to a lot of punishment against a physical team like the Ravens. Baltimore’s run defense begins up front with 6-4, 345-pound Haloti Ngata. This mountain of a man has expected power and unexpected quickness. He has the strength to tie up several blockers to allow middle linebackers Ray Lewis and Tavares Gooden to step up and fill lanes. Lewis is a tough, no-nonsense wrecking ball who hits everyone in sight and hits them hard. He has excellent read-and-react skills and he maintains his intensity for four quarters. Gooden has a nose for the ball and makes plays from sideline to sideline.

Rushing yards per game:

New England offense:
120.1 (12th)
Baltimore defense:
93.2 (5th)

When the Patriots pass

EDGE: Patriots
The $64,000 question: Who will replace Wes Welker’s production? More specifically, who possesses the skills to exploit the soft spots underneath? Julian Edelman has gotten a lot of attention and he’ll get his chances, but to suggest he can duplicate Welker’s output alone is a little far-fetched. It is more likely that a combination of players (Edelman, Kevin Faulk, and Sam Aiken) will be employed to act as Tom Brady’s safety blankets. Edelman is smart, has quick feet, and has no fear going over the middle. He lacks experience, however, and he drops some catchable balls. Faulk has the tools to operate out of the slot. He has exceptionally quick feet and outstanding vision and instincts. He has reliable hands and is shifty in the open field. He lacks true speed, however, and will take some big hits. Aiken is dripping with potential. He has good size (6 feet 2 inches, 215 pounds) and strength and is an absolute beast after the catch. He isn’t particularly speedy or quick, and his hands are suspect. In small doses, Aiken can be effective. Randy Moss will get a lot of attention today. Don’t be surprised if Moss, the team’s only true deep threat, gets some reps out of the slot. Moss has proven he can play the possession game (see Week 1 and Week 3 stats). When focused (and he will be today), Moss will use his rare combination of speed, acceleration, and body control to dominate opponents. The Ravens don’t have a corner on the roster who can cover Moss without help, which means safeties Ed Reed (he’s lethal but hurting) and Dawan Landry (he’s lethal but lazy) will be busy. The good news for Patriots fans is that Tom Brady, one of the smartest and most well-prepared QBs in history, is a master distributor. He has tremendous vision and coolness and is adept at exploiting mismatches and using every weapon in his arsenal. When given the time, Brady will shred secondaries, no matter how good they are — and this one isn’t very good. Injuries have ravaged the Ravens, and neither Chris Carr nor Domonique Foxworth would start for most teams.

Passing yards per game:

New England offense:
277.2 (3d)
Baltimore defense:
207.2 (8th)

When the Ravens run

EDGE: Ravens
Ray Rice has emerged as one of the NFL’s most exciting players this season. The 5-foot-8-inch, 205-pound Rice is built similarly to Maurice Jones-Drew but runs more like Tiki Barber. He has exceptional vision and instincts and will burst through tiny cracks with authority. He rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries in Week 4 vs. the Patriots, and you can bet that getting shots on No. 27 has been a point of emphasis by Pepper Johnson and Dean Pees this week. The Ravens feature an above-average backup in 6-foot, 232-pound veteran Willis McGahee. The tough and speedy McGahee, who would be a starter on a lot of teams, has only 109 carries this year but proved last week (16 totes, 167 yards, 3 TDs in Oakland) that he has plenty left in the tank. McGahee is a slasher with good speed who bursts through tiny creases and shows good acceleration in the secondary. Although he lacks bulk, McGahee is an exceptional short-yardage back who has a nose for the end zone (12 rushing TDs). Fullback Le’Ron McClain (6 feet, 260 pounds) is a mobile monster who is just as comfortable picking off a linebacker as he is picking up a first down. McClain runs low and hard and delivers some devastating lead blocks. Don’t fall asleep on the big fella, because he will break off a 20-yard gain every once in a while. One of the most entertaining matchups today will be Baltimore center Matt Birk butting heads with New England nose tackle Vince Wilfork. Birk (6-4, 309) is quick and intelligent. He delivers a nice wallop off the snap and will work hard to get to the second level. Wilfork is listed at 6-2, 325, but sure looks heavier. He has surprising quickness and exceptional lateral movement. He anchors well, sheds blockers effectively, and delivers some ferocious hits. Ty Warren (6-5, 300) has impressive lower-body strength and leverage. Warren can play inside or outside and is about as tough a one-on-one matchup as there is in the league. Jerod Mayo (he’s aggressive and smart) is New England’s best run-stuffing linebacker and will be busy today.

Rushing yards per game:

Baltimore offense:
137.5 (5th)
New England defense:
110.5 (13th)

When the Ravens pass

EDGE: Patriots
Sophomore quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled with consistency this season (in the last five weeks, he’s had passer ratings of 27.2 and 135.6) but has proven he can lead a team to playoff success. Flacco has excellent physical tools, including great size (6 feet 6 inches, 235 pounds), a powerful arm, and excellent vision. Most important, he has a winner’s mentality. Flacco is smart. He reads through his progressions and delivers some of the tightest and sharpest spirals in the business. Because of his success, it’s easy to forget Flacco is still young and still suffers growing pains. Although he makes quick decisions, they are not always good ones, and he doesn’t protect the ball the way he should (12 INTs, 8 fumbles). The Patriots’ pass rush has improved with defensive end/linebacker hybrids Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess leading the charge. Banta-Cain has decent quickness and strength while Burgess has good instincts and quickness. Linemen Mike Wright and Jarvis Green will pressure Flacco from the inside. Flacco doesn’t have an elite receiving corps. Derrick Mason is the top outside threat. Mason explodes off the line and in and out of his cuts. He has sure hands but has lost a step (13 NFL seasons will do that). Mason will fight for every ball and won’t shy away from physical contact. Mark Clayton runs excellent routes and uses his power to gain separation. He will suffer from lapses in concentration, however, and will drop passes. Todd Heap is one of the league’s best receiving tight ends when healthy — but that’s not often. The 6-5, 252-pounder has taken a beating over the years, and durability is always an issue. Ray Rice is a real weapon in the passing game. He catches the ball in stride and employs shiftiness and vision to rack up yards. New England’s secondary has some big playmakers. Corners Shawn Springs (excellent agility and mirror skills) and Leigh Bodden (good strength and ball skills) are proven veterans. Safety James Sanders has helped solidify the back end with his range and his penchant for big hits. Fellow safeties Brandon McGowan and Brandon Meriweather love to get physical.

Passing yards per game:

Baltimore offense:
213.7 (18th)
New England defense:
209.7 (12th)

Ravens' keys to victory:

1. Under cover: The Ravens have to jam the slot receiver (no matter who he is) to prevent Tom Brady from establishing an early rhythm underneath, which will open things up downfield.
2. Bruise brothers: Elite and surly linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs have to set the tone with high intensity and big hits. They have to be at their intimidating best.
3. Lead by example: Coach John Harbaugh has a tendency to complain — a lot. If his players follow his lead and start pouting about penalties (hey, they're going to happen), this one will be over quickly.

Patriots' keys to victory:

1. Moving on: Wes Welker's not walking through that door. But a bunch of other playmakers are. It's time for everybody to step up, chip in, and move those chains.
2. Multiple forces: Don't be one-dimensional. There are healthy and fresh tailbacks on the roster. Use them to keep the Ravens honest and prevent Terrell Suggs from mugging Tom Brady.
3. Rattle and hum: Joe Flacco can get flustered. Show multiple looks and get a few good shots on him early and he will buckle. When he gets nervous, his passes sail and turnovers soon follow.

Ravens' key player: Ray Rice

• The pride of that football factory in Piscataway, N.J., (that's Rutgers to the uninitiated), Rice is a compact pit bull with an explosive first step, tremendous quickness, and multiple moves. His favorite one is running right over you.
• How he beats you: With tremendous versatility. The 5-foot-8-inch, 202-pounder can operate as a traditional workhorse tailback, toting the rock and chewing up real estate by blasting through holes and defenders. He's also a top-notch receiver who uses power and vision to exploit cutback lanes.
• How to shut him down: By wearing him down. One hit will never be enough to bring Rice down, so gang-tackling is the order of the day. Move the safeties closer to the line until Joe Flacco proves he can beat you with his arm.