« Mathis limited | Main | Post-game plan »

1st half analysis

Analysis from the first half of Super Bowl XLI, with the Colts leading 16-14:

Conditions are clearly playing a factor in the game, as heavy rains are making ball security an issue. The teams combined for six turnovers in the first half -- five lost fumbles and one Peyton Manning interception in which he tried to force a ball into the heart of the Bears’ cover-2 defense, down the right sideline. There was also a botched snap on a Colts extra point, when holder Hunter Smith couldn’t hang on to the ball.

One area of interest is how both teams are playing defense. The Bears have stuck with the cover-2, which is what the Patriots played in the AFC Championship, and is designed to take away the outer edges of the field. The Colts’ first touchdown -- a 53-yard connection from Manning to Reggie Wayne -- came when safety Danieal Manning bit up on the coverage and blew his cover-2 assignment in the deep, defensive right half of the field.

Meanwhile, the Colts are playing more with a single high safety, bringing Bob Sanders into the box as an eighth man against the run. Essentially, they are daring Bears quarterback Rex Grossman to take some shots down the field, but Chicago has stayed conservative.

The Devin Hester Effect hasn’t been difficult to spot. That was an electrifying 92-yard kickoff return to open the game, and the Colts have since decided not to kick to him.

All in all, here is how we see the second half unfolding: The Bears need to open things up a bit and trust Grossman a bit more, while naturally avoiding turnovers, while the Colts must tighten up against the big play (Hester; 52-yard run by Thomas Jones to set up their second touchdown).

The Colts get the ball to start the second half. It’s anyone’s game, although the Colts have had the better of the action in our opinion.