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Brady & Moss

By Mike Reiss, Globe Staff December 24, 2007 11:25 AM

Last week, we looked at how many times QB Tom Brady threw passes in the direction of WR Randy Moss, and noted that Brady probably forced a few too many passes to his No. 1 receiver.

Against the Jets, Brady threw 28 passes overall, and 13 went to Moss.

Against the Dolphins, Brady threw 36 passes (including three plays in which pass interference was called). We counted 13 in Moss’ direction, with five completions and two drawn pass interference penalties.

Of the 13 throws, a few seemed to be questionable decisions, all coming in the second half. One aspect to keep in mind is that Moss has made plays against double coverage, so not all throws to him into double coverage are necessarily bad decisions.

Here is how we broke down the Patriots' drives and the throws to Moss:

First drive

  • 9 passes
  • 2 to Moss (incomplete; 11-yard TD)

    Second drive

  • 3 passes
  • None to Moss

    Third drive

  • 4 passes
  • 2 to Moss (1-yard TD, draws pass interference)

    Fourth drive

  • 1 pass
  • None to Moss

    Fifth drive

  • 3 passes
  • 1 to Moss (11-yard completion)

    --HALFTIME--

    Sixth drive

  • 5 passes
  • 2 to Moss (draws pass interference; interception)
    Why the INT was questionable: Moss was running down the right sideline and the corner had good coverage. A safety came over to help and the ball was thrown in the help area, not over the top where Moss could have had a chance to make a play. Even if the ball was thrown in the right spot, which would have required a remarkable throw, this seemed to be an example of forcing the ball into tight coverage.

    Seventh drive

  • 2 passes
  • 1 to Moss (interception)
    Why the INT was questionable: Brady was flushed out of the pocket and was throwing on the run. He delivered the ball into a high traffic area and it deflected off Moss’ hands, with defensive back Will Allen getting his hands in to disrupt things. The ball was intercepted off the deflection. Instead of throwing into the high traffic area, Brady probably would have been better served either throwing the ball away or tucking it and running.

    Eighth drive

  • 3 passes
  • 1 to Moss (called for offensive pass interference)

    Ninth drive

  • 2 passes
  • 2 to Moss (11-yard completion; incomplete)
    Why the incompletion was questionable: Moss was triple covered down the deep middle of the field.

    10th drive

  • 2 passes
  • 1 to Moss (16-yard completion)

    11th drive

  • 2 passes
  • 1 to Moss (incomplete)
    Why the incompletion was questionable: Moss was double covered down the deep middle of the field. Brady was forced to move out of the pocket as the Dolphins got pressure with a three-man rush.

    12th drive

  • 0 passes

    FINAL ANALYSIS: In the first half, five of 20 passes (25 percent) were thrown to Moss. The ball was distributed around to other receivers and the offense played a solid half. In the second half, eight of the 16 passes (50 percent) were thrown to Moss and the momentum of the offense was stunted.

  • 11 comments so far...
    1. Mike, I'm surprised you're faulting Brady for the second INT. Moss has made some unbelievable catches this year, but he's also dropped quite a few. This was one of those passes where it was thrown into a tight spot but was easily catchable. We would have praised Brady for the high precision pass if Moss had hung on to it. [Some have argued that it's because the DB barred his other arm and he was forced to try to catch it with one hand] But even Simms said it was a good pass. Moss should have made the play but didn't.

      Posted by MarkZ December 24, 07 11:33 AM
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    1. The argument would be more valid if the Patriots were losing games. No one questions handing off to the same RB 25-30 times even when a decent percentage of the runs are for no gain. That type of running strategy would be considered a good thing, no?

      Also, the 'questionable' passes all came in the 2nd half with a rather large lead against a pretty bad team. Not unlike heaving up 3-pointers from 10 feet behind the line or swinging for the fences when the games out of reach.

      Why change, and heck, why even question it? 15-0 is 15-0. All hail the mighty Patriots! Good luck next week.

      Posted by CA_Vagrant December 24, 07 12:31 PM
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    1. I was at the game (so my experience may be more or less useful) but two of these plays (the eight and ninth drive pass decisions) were OK given that Moss had a lead on the coverage. Both times Brady underthrew them a bit and Randy had to turn, slow and compete for the ball. Nice entry.

      Posted by Christian Newton December 24, 07 12:40 PM
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    1. I'd like to know if the perception that Brady is forcing passes to Moss is true as the end of the season approaches. Some argue he has been doing this all year. Is he really overlooking better passes to get Moss the TD record? His first 10 games or so had him on pace to set records for passer rating and completion percentage. Both of those stats have dropped off considerably. Is it because of weather or because Brady is forcing passes to Moss?

      Sal Paolantonio seemed to feel the majority in the press box felt Brady was forcing it to Moss needlessly to try and set the record. Even missing a wide open Welker for a TD when he threw the interception to Moss in the end zone.

      I'd like to see Jaws break down Brady's passes over the year and see if he is making good decisions. Is Moss his first read and does it look open when he lets it go? Is Brady overlooking more open receivers trying to find Moss instead? Has this changed as the season went on?

      Four turnovers against a playoff team (with no takeaways) could end the Patriots season.

      Posted by JG December 24, 07 01:07 PM
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    1. It's obvious that with the game in the win column Brady is trying to get Moss his record ignoring other open receivers. I sure hope this doesn't come back to bite his team in the bachside. The running back argument doesn't wash. Really, you can have four or more receivers in on one play, ever seen four running backs in on one play?

      Posted by Roger December 24, 07 01:11 PM
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    1. Mike, I am somewhat fearful that our Pats have peaked. The way-too-good team from 4 weeks ago does not have the edge it once did. I fear that in the quest for 16-0, the players are burning out, and the aged ones on the defense side are wearing down. I want to be wrong!

      Posted by mark san souci December 24, 07 01:27 PM
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    1. "The running back argument doesn't wash. Really, you can have four or more receivers in on one play, ever seen four running backs in on one play?"

      You've made my point exactly, no one would question handing the ball off to the same guy over and over again... when eveyone on the field knows it's going to happen and the defense sticks 8 guys in the box... everyone would praise the 'hard-nose' approach. With a 28-0 lead, would anyone be over-analyzing the stats if Maroney was handed the ball on 80% of the 2nd half plays even if it 'stunted' the offense? I doubt it.

      So why the over-concern with throwing to one guy 50% of the time, in a game that was over? If anything, Moss is well equipped than most to catch balls in double and triple coverage. This wasn't Bledsoe throwing into triple coverage when down by 3... they had a 21 point lead on the 1-13 Miami Dolphins (they are who we think they are!).

      As far as the Patriots peaking goes, there first needs to be a downside. Otherwise, all you've got is a plateau. And this Patriot plateau happens to be WAY above the rest of the league.

      Greatest team of all time people. How about enjoying it some?

      Posted by CA_Vagrant December 24, 07 06:41 PM
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    1. You can try to justify it or rationalize it all you want but there is no doubt that Brady is forcing the ball to Moss and it is huting our team.

      This weeks game is a shining example. In the first half Brady is creading the ball around like he used to do (Moss only has 25% of the throws) and the offensive is clicking. In the second half it turns into the Brady / Moss show (again) and the offense fizzles out.

      What concerns me more than anything is Brady's comments after the game where he defended throwing into triple coverage to Moss and made it sound like thats what we should expect going forward.

      During our great run no individual player or individual record was ever but before the team. That is no longer the case. Moss wants his and Brady is doing everything he can - to the detriment of the rest of the team - to get him it.

      As rediculous as it sounds they would be better off without Moss right now as Brady would distribute the ball to the open receiver between Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney, Watson and Washington.

      I hope they havent lost all cohesiveness and offensive momentum by the time they but these individual goals and selfish play behind them or they may have a 16-0 season and individual TD records and be watching the majority of the playoffs from home.

      Posted by Chad Mcpherson December 25, 07 03:08 PM
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    1. Wow!!! very telling stats. When brady is playing "his game" of just finding the open man, drives stay alive longer and Moss gets TDs. When he focus' on one guy, even if that guy is arguably the best WR in the game, drives get stunted and nobody scores. Would someone please forward this breakdown to Tom?

      Posted by Munghero December 27, 07 09:49 AM
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    1. I really believe one solid fact here and that is Brady throws passes not interceptions...those stats are a misconception since an interception is between points A and B when it hits a WR/TE/RBs hands and is tipped to where a defensive player can catch it that is a tipped ball, NOT an interception. If you look back it would be MOST of Bradys balls are thrown this way that are incorrectly called Interception. I think this stat should be changed as its very misleading. Some horrible QBs throw strait up INTERCEPTIONS right to the defender or the WR does NOT come to the ball and the defender catches it ahead of them. Thats not the QBs fault entirely but he is required to scan the feild prior to throwning.

      Posted by AJ December 28, 07 10:47 PM
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    1. Yes, Brady tried forcing it to Moss in an attempt at the records, but can you blame him?

      They were well ahead of the lowly Dolphins & weren't concerned about it at the time.

      They were probably also using the opportunity to "polish" up some ideas for the play-off stretch...hmmmmmmmmmmmm

      Had Miami somehow "come-back" to make the game close, you can rest assued BB would've put the foot down & told Brady - "no more fun stuff, get some more points on the board NOW"

      and of course, he would've

      Posted by boycott Newport RI December 29, 07 11:42 AM
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