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Running game in focus

By Mike Reiss, Globe Staff December 18, 2007 12:53 PM

Do the Patriots have a productive running game?

It's a question that has been debated this season, and opinions vary. While statistics don't always reflect success, here are a few numbers that some might point to when saying the team has been productive running the ball:

  • 4.0 -- The number of yards per carry the Patriots are averaging this season, gaining a total of 1,609 rushing yards on 400 attempts. The total includes quarterback kneeldowns at the end of games.

  • 1 -- The number of times in the last 20 years that the Patriots have averaged 4.0 yards per carry or better in a season (2004, 4.1).

  • 47.5 -- The percentage of Patriots rushing attempts that have gained four or more yards this season, the highest total in the NFL.

  • 4.21 -- The average number of yards per carry that Laurence Maroney has gained in his career (1378 yards on 327 attempts).

  • 4.22 -- The Patriots’ individual franchise record for most yards per carry with the team, achieved by Corey Dillon (3180 yards on 753 carries from 2004-06) and Craig James (2469 yards on 585 carries from 1984-88).

  • 4 -- The number of games this season in which the Patriots have had a 100-yard rusher.

  • 3 -- The total number of games in which the Patriots had a 100-yard rusher over the previous two seasons combined (2005-06).

  • 14 comments so far...
    1. Excellent information Mike! Thank you for that. I feel a lot better about the running game after the Jets game and this info.

      Posted by PJM December 18, 07 01:24 PM
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    1. Its important to note that Sammie Morris was a major factor in accumulating this year's rushing stats and he's no longer an active member of this year's team.

      Posted by b December 18, 07 01:30 PM
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    1. Well! That should put to rest lingering concerns about the running game.

      Posted by Paul December 18, 07 01:32 PM
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    1. Thanks for the great info, Mike. By chance, do you have the team yards per carry, and percentage of carries for 4 yards or more, since Morris was injured? My guess is that both numbers would be lower. Thanks!

      Posted by Nick December 18, 07 01:53 PM
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    1. Hey B,
      Sammy Morris has accounted for 21% of the rushing attempts (85/400) and 23% of the total rushing yds (384/1,609). Although he did well when running I wouldn't equate those totals as a major factor.

      Posted by Nikos December 18, 07 01:55 PM
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    1. I agree wtih "b"
      The Sammy Morris Numbers need to be 'netted" out and the analysis redone (sorry Mike)
      That will provide a more reasonable view of the issues.
      Can Morris comeback for the playoffs?

      Posted by FoxboroughGuy December 18, 07 02:22 PM
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    1. Footballoutsiders.com metrics show that the Patriots have the most efficient running game in the league (although not the most productive). FO stats show that when the patriots run the ball, on average they gain 20% more yards than an average running team in the same game situation. FO also says that the Eagles have the 2nd most efficient running game, gaining 16% more per rush than the average attack.

      Combined with Mike's insightful, conventional statistics, I think it is hard to argue that when the run the ball, the Patriots do an excellent job.

      Posted by David Cyprian December 18, 07 02:57 PM
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    1. So the team is at 3.89 ypc if you remove Morris. Not a huge difference. And for those who feel that removing Morris produces a "true" picture of whether the team can run or not, note that Mike includes kneeldowns at the end of games.

      Posted by Real Chili December 18, 07 03:05 PM
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    1. Hi FoxboroughGuy,

      Players placed on Injured Reserve (IR) do not get the option of returning for playoff football. They are out for the entire season, including playoffs.

      Posted by Kev December 18, 07 03:15 PM
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    1. Guys, Morris' running style contributed to the illusion that he's a much better runner than Maroney. Look at Nikos' number: Morris had 21% of the attempts and 23% of the yards; in other words, Morris' contribution doesn't distort the overall picture that Reiss' number provides (because his attempts and yardage percentages are roughly equal). Maroney's a great physical specimen who's not a great runner. The great runner part will come when he has the experience, vision, and football knowledge to make decisive cuts for solid yardage. In the meantime, lay off him.

      Posted by Brouhaha December 18, 07 03:17 PM
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    1. There are only so many offensive snaps. t's not that the Patriots don't have a good runniing game - they do. It would be better with Sammy. It just that for Brady to be Brady, the ball must be thrown.

      The game last sunday just called for a running game, and sure enough, the Patriots had one. 300-400 yard passing games reesult inn 25-50 yard running games.

      Posted by Roger Robitaille December 18, 07 03:41 PM
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    1. As far as I'm concerned, thre are only two stats that have any meaning in the running game... First Downs on 3rd or 4th and under 3 and same for TD's scored from under 3.

      One long run can distort the averages when there are so few carries.

      Posted by Otis December 19, 07 10:13 AM
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    1. Stats aside, the Pats have 3 Pro Bowlers at O-line partly because of the gaping holes they create for the running game. My issue is - with our passing threat and this O-Line - shouldn't Maroney be a dominant RB? Yes - the stats indicate we are the best as far as average. But would another RB (McFadden) be able to take much better advantage of our solid O-Line? Maroney is not John Riggins and should not plow straight into D-Linemen - keep your head up - make someone miss and get 5+ yeards once in a while!

      Posted by kevin gara December 19, 07 02:13 PM
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    1. One thing that is rarely mentioned is that Maroney is quite young for a second year player. Addai is nearly 2 years older. Peterson is roughly the same age. I recognize that age doesn't achieve first downs, but Maroney's best is likely ahead of him.

      Posted by Will P. December 20, 07 07:24 AM
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