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53-man roster prediction

Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff August 30, 2008 08:45 AM

ANALYSIS

After watching the Patriots through training camp and four preseason games, here is a shot at predicting how the 53-man roster will unfold today:

  • Quarterback (3): Tom Brady, Matt Gutierrez, Kevin O'Connell

  • Running back (5): Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, Heath Evans

  • Wide receiver (6): Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Chad Jackson, Kelley Washington, Sam Aiken

  • Tight end (2): Benjamin Watson, David Thomas

  • Offensive line (8): Matt Light, Nick Kaczur, Wesley Britt, Dan Koppen, Mike Flynn, Logan Mankins, Billy Yates, Russ Hochstein, Dan Connolly predicted to injured reserve; Oliver Ross to reserve/PUP; Stephen Neal already on reserve/PUP

  • Defensive line (6): Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Le Kevin Smith

  • Linebackers (10): Adalius Thomas, Mike Vrabel, Shawn Crable, Pierre Woods, Vince Redd, Tedy Bruschi, Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Eric Alexander, Larry Izzo

  • Cornerbacks (5): Fernando Bryant, Ellis Hobbs, Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite, Mike Richardson

  • Safety (5): Rodney Harrison, James Sanders, Brandon Meriweather, John Lynch, Matthew Slater

  • Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski (kicker), Chris Hanson (punter), Lonie Paxton (long snapper)

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    33 comments so far...

    1. I like this roster, especially the two UDFA linebackers making the team.

      Posted by James Keddy August 30, 08 09:01 AM
    1. I think your roster prediction is right on except the following:

      - Gutierez goes to the Practice Squad. The Pats keep only two QB's.
      - Antoine Spann makes it at Safety

      Posted by John Dickey August 30, 08 09:03 AM
    1. Wow Mike, All familiar names coming back, Looks like a lot of rookies make it this year. I'm trying to figure out who get cut.

      Posted by Jillian August 30, 08 09:07 AM
    1. If Mike Richardson does make the team it is time for him to step up and do something besides reminding us of Tyrone Poole.He needs to get on the field

      Posted by paul August 30, 08 09:12 AM
    1. its time for certain guys to get off the stationary bike and hit the field such as Richardson..It shows how this they are at O line right now by the fact the kept Britt.He is a turnstyle

      Posted by paul August 30, 08 09:16 AM
    1. i have a funny feeling we won't see cassel let go.

      Mike, who do you see going to the practice squad?

      Posted by Bobby August 30, 08 09:31 AM
    1. So, in effect, Hobson and Cassel are released?

      Posted by reza August 30, 08 09:39 AM
    1. I didn't see anything in V Redd or G Guyton to see why they would earn a spot over V Hobson.

      Slater showed me nothing as a "ST Specialist" so I don't see why he would stick.

      Only 2 TE's scares me a bit since they've both been hurt.

      Scares me that Cassel might have done enought to hang on by a thread. I hope they see he hasn't got it and will likely never get it.

      Posted by Mike G August 30, 08 09:57 AM
    1. I don't particularly like the assigning of positions to guys who basically are special team players. This confuses everything. So K. Washington, S. Aiken, E. Alex. and L. Izzo are special teamers and nothing more. I would rather have guys who can catch and defend first. And then use them as ST'ers if they're not frontline players. This would allow you to keep another tight end, another WR and some young linebackers.

      Posted by bobd August 30, 08 09:58 AM
    1. I've never completely agreed with someone else's roster prediction before now! The one possible change I'd make is to substitute Redd with Ross, depending on the severity of his injury. Three tackles is a bit thin, and I don't think any of the guards could be effective emergency tackles (like Neal stepping in at RT against Pittsburgh in '04).

      Also, another guy who I think has a chance is Ventrone. He's looked decent as a slot receiver and he contributes on ST. Thing is, Redd would probably clear waivers to make it on to the practice squad, but I don't think Ventrone is eligible. That could be a factor.

      Posted by MarkZ August 30, 08 10:20 AM
    1. I think one of the two UDFA LB's go to the practice squad and in their place is Hobson. Safety is a tough cut, I like Slater and Spann played very well this preseason. A chance to keep him around for the "shadow roster" perhaps?

      Posted by DJ August 30, 08 10:52 AM
    1. Any chance the Pats consider Colvin??

      Posted by Joe Hackney August 30, 08 11:01 AM
    1. I would like to see Hobson make it over Eric Alexander.

      And has Sam Aiken done anything all preseason? I haven't heard his name once.

      Posted by gick August 30, 08 11:02 AM
    1. Cornerback is in serous trouble. There is not, at this junction, even one bonafide NFL starter.

      And Mike G has a good point regarding Hobson. I think he makes the team and gets lots of playing time, too.

      Cassel should have been released last week, no two weeks ago, no, last season, no, two seasons ago. Arena football is calling.

      Posted by Mike Allen August 30, 08 11:10 AM
    1. Mike, I think your roster predictions are right on. A few more thoughts...

      - I doubt Redd clears waivers if released.
      - Pretty sure Cassell has to go.
      - Slater makes the team because he has ST's upside and he can play both D and O if needed (albeit not well but still).
      - Aiken, Washington, Alexander, and Izzo are standout Special Teams players. That is why they will make the team. Your argument to have "guys who can catch and defend first play ST's is flawed. First, what if those players are not as good on ST's as the players listed above? Also, you are assuming the players above cannot catch and defend, which they can.

      Posted by Mike K. August 30, 08 11:30 AM
    1. MIke, I like your prediction for the 53 man roster with the exceptions of Ray Ventrone and CJ Jones. They will both make the roster. Sam Aikens will be put on IR or released and Chad Jackson will be released. Ventrone and Jones will take spots as the remaining wide outs.

      Posted by AlvinG August 30, 08 11:37 AM
    1. Any thoughts on BenJarvus Green-Ellis? I know we're fairly deep at running back, but for a guy I didn't know a whole lot about, Green-Ellis has impressed me thus far. I know he's seen most of his time against second- and third-team defenses, but he runs hard and always north-south. Could he squeak through waivers and wind up on the practice squad?

      Posted by Chris B. August 30, 08 11:45 AM
    1. Gutierrez to the practice squad?? do people realize you need to clear all teams before you can be placed on the practice squad?? I expect the patriots to get to 52 players and pick up an extra player (3rd TE??) that gets let go.

      Posted by mike August 30, 08 11:47 AM
    1. How does no one talk about Izzo?

      Great human being apparently with all that is written and talked about him but a place on "this" year's team? To do what exactly?
      Even when he was younger he almost never saw time as a "linebacker". This year forget about it. He plays special teams and although once a pro bowler his production has decreased in that regard and he showed me nothing in preseason. Yes I know it is preseason.

      Give me Ventrone over Izzo. He plays O, D, and ST, younger, and costs less.

      younger isn't he?younger isn't he

      Posted by J August 30, 08 12:05 PM
    1. I like your roster predictions, with an exception: Mike RIchardson hasn't even seen the field yet as far as I know, so I'm thinking Lewis Sanders stays over Richardson (maybe Richardson lands on the PUP list or IR).

      Do you think Ventrone will make it to the practice squad? If not I'd much rather have him than Slater.

      Posted by Jamie P. August 30, 08 12:11 PM
    1. Hobson has been terrible and Redd and Guyton have been two of the lone bright spots on the team.... I don't know what you people are watching. Hobson was so bad he was playing in the 4th quarter with scrubs.

      Posted by Ryan August 30, 08 12:16 PM
    1. Hey Mike
      I really like your roster. Though I would change couple spots.
      I would not keep 5 RBs - Evans does not make it, and would release one of LBs (out of Redd / Alexander / Izzo).
      Instead we can bolster the O Line (with some FA) and keep Ventrone - he really deserves it.
      Plus I would like to bring some more dependable backup QB (instead of Gutierrez).

      Posted by Flying Elf August 30, 08 12:47 PM
    1. I'm glad most of you arent in our front office.....waive Jackson??!! and Evans!!! I think yall should stick with fantasy football and leave the decisions to BB and SP......GO PATS!!!!!

      Posted by Longtime Pats fan in VA August 30, 08 01:03 PM
    1. Really enjoyed reading all the comments here on the roster projection. Richardson was my toughest decision. I kept him for two reasons: 1) The proliferation of more spread offenses and thus the need for more defensive backs; 2) I like how he plays physical; he's probably their most physical cornerback. In terms of Redd, who is another guy in the 52-53 range, I just don't think he'd clear waivers to make it to the practice squad. So I think they have to protect themselves there. I feel the same way on Gutierrez -- just don't think he'd get to the practice squad. On Hobson, he played more in the fourth preseason game than I think he did combined in the first three preseason games. Not sure it was enough to save his job. Green-Ellis would be a perfect practice squad fit. I'd be very surprised if Guyton does not make it. I still think Izzo contributes on special teams and is worthy of a roster spot.
      --Mike

      Posted by Mike Reiss August 30, 08 01:10 PM
    1. From what ive seen so far this preseason and reading whats been posted so far, you can certainly make a case for a lot of guys on the bubble.
      I think even though Izzo is stand out ST guy, he's been around too long. I think if they want to get a little younger they should at least keep Hobson around even though he hasnt shown much this pre-season. I think sooner than later he will "get it" with more time and be a decent back up in different packages.

      I think CJ jones and Green-Ellis would be great practice squad guys, if they clear waivers.
      I just hope the Pats keep, Redd and Guyton. Too much buzz around these guys to take a chance and sneak them through to practice Squad.
      Cassel gets cut, and Ventrone might sneak onto the team somehow. Everything else seems right on.

      Posted by Matt August 30, 08 01:52 PM
    1. I agree with most of your selections, good job Mike.. I can't believe someone said to cut Heath Evans? bizarre. I think Jackson has done nothing not to have earned a roster spot.. To have that kind of talent as your 4th reciever is a nice luxury. I'm disappointed in Hobson, I thought it was a good signing at the time but he has shown nothing.. Go with the youth at LB!

      Posted by konsumers August 30, 08 02:06 PM
    1. With Faulk's suspension, there is room for one more player. I think it will be Hobson or Ventrone.

      Posted by Jim L. August 30, 08 02:11 PM
    1. The only reason, and it's compelling, to keep Cassel is so that other teams cannot mine him for info about the offense.

      BO Ruud on practice squad?

      Posted by Eric August 30, 08 02:36 PM
    1. alvin have you watched any of the preseason at all? no way in hell do they release chad jackson he's played like randy moss. it just is not going to happen. chad is in for a big year if he can stay healthy

      Posted by Peter August 30, 08 02:55 PM
    1. i love this roster

      cept mike richardson not makin it

      him and ruud on ps

      Posted by young juice August 30, 08 03:18 PM
    1. I see tremendous potential in Matt Slater

      Posted by jim August 30, 08 03:26 PM
    1. from a nebraska fan. just wondering how bo rudd did in the preseason. the boxscores i saw-he didn't have any defensive stats. was he injured?

      Posted by geoff August 30, 08 03:26 PM
    1. Only two tight ends? With Watson's and Thomas's respective injury histories? I don't think so. If they don't like the other guys they have, they'll pick up someone else by the end of the weekend. Otherwise, a very plausible list.

      Posted by Todd Davis August 30, 08 04:26 PM
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