Here are a few nuggets of note about the Patriots' opponent Sunday, the New York Jets (1-0):
1) Better parts to fit their style of play. The additions of mammoth nose tackle Kris Jenkins (6 feet 4 inches, 349 pounds) and outside linebacker Calvin Pace (6-4, 270) are better fits in the 3-4 defense than former nose tackle Dewayne Robertson (6-1, 308) and former outside linebacker Victor Hobson (6-0, 250). The Jets are now a harder team to run on, as the Dolphins found out last week (17 carries, 49 yards, 2.9 avg.).
2) Four first-round picks on the offensive line. Left guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody are free-agent upgrades. They team with center Nick Mangold and left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson to give the Jets four first-round picks up front. Brett Favre was sacked three times last week, but this is still a better line than it was last season.
3) All three levels of the passing game must now be defended. With Brett Favre as quarterback, the Jets can now threaten defenses in the short, intermediate and deep areas of the field. This is a bit different from when the Jets had Chad Pennington and the deep area wasn't as much of a concern. On the flip side, Favre is more prone to mistakes than the efficient Pennington.
4) Leon Washington a top playmaker. While Thomas Jones is the Jets' top running back, Leon Washington (5-8, 202) should not be overlooked. The Dolphins limited him to nine yards on six carrries last week, but Washington was a factor in the punt return game (5 returns, 64 yards, long of 20). Defenses must always be aware of when he enters the game, because his style is considerably different than Jones's.
5) Injury situation at kicker. The Jets are without their regular kicker, Mike Nugent. They signed veteran Jay Feely to take his place. Feely has experience kicking at Giants Stadium from his time with the Giants (2005-2006).
FINAL ANALYSIS: As is often the case when these two teams meet, it will be a mental chess match because of the similarities in what they run. Pass protection takes on added importance as the Jets are likely to vary their schemes in an attempt to confuse Matt Cassel. Oddsmakers have made the Jets a favorite and it's easy to see why -- this is a good team with a lot of talent, while the Patriots are a team in transition at quarterback. I am thinking it will be a low-scoring game and kicker Stephen Gostkowski will play a pivotal role. Prediction: Patriots 16, Jets 13.
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Our primary weakness is defense - schemes and personnel. We can't stop anybody - we're soft up the middle and do not cover well. Quite frankly, if the other team's offense doesn't beat itself, we probably won't win the game (hello, KC). Personally, I think Dean Pees has been a failure over the last couple of years but apparently there's no one else presently qualified (will Dom Capers some day take the reins?).
Forget the quarterback controversy. We'll hit enough short/medium stuff pretty easily but will have tremendous difficulty running the ball on the Jets.
16-13? In your dreams. I'm guessing we'll lose by 10. Face it - this the team is overrated, especially the offensive and defensive lines.
Mike,
How did Jenkins look in the Jets opener? NT is the key position in Mangini's copycat defense. Jenkins is huge, but is prone to get hurt and lacks a good motor.
RWF put it a sock in it. The D gave up only 10 points last week and slowed down one of the best running attacks in the league. Not only that but after blowing a coverage on the final drive of the game the D proved that its capable of stopping an opponent on 5 successive downs from the 5 yard line.
Did you watch the same game it did? Seymour played tough on that final run. Oneal's coverage was super tight on the last play. Vrabel and AD played great off the edge. Wilfork was crazy in the middle.
Quite frankly you don't know what your talking about.
RWF, way to be optimistic!
Not to pile on you RWF but you obviously missed the last week. Defense is not even on the radar for top concern right now. They played at a much higher level last week, given it was a weak opponent, than they had been in preseason. I have much higher expectations now that I have seen them play this season.
The defense simply has to be better, period.
I'm not sure that I buy into the theory that the offense was so good last season, the defense was able to "coast" for many weeks because of that. That's not really the way Bill Belichick wants his players to approach the game.
The bottom line is that in the final minutes of their last two post-season losses, the Pats' defense has spit the bit.
They were allowed to get dangerously old and thin at key positions, and it caught up to them.
The rebuilding has begun and I think they're off to a pretty good start in that, but my feeling is that the D is not ready to carry this Brady-less team just yet.
I think the Jets win this one going away....10 points or better.
But I hope I'm wrong.
NT is the single-most overrated position in the 3-4. Yes, it's very important, but most media reports make it sound like it's the singular variable that makes or breaks a 3-4 defense. As such, people have the Jets horrendous 2007 defense transformed into a powerhouse by the mere addition of Kris Jenkins. They overlook the lack of a legitimate NFL-caliber safety opposite Rhodes, poor depth at CB, Barton stinking at weakside ILB, and DEs incapable of playing in the 3-4.
Lots of people tend to forget that the DE position has many similar responsibilities to NT. They have to occupy two men on runs to their side. Any runs outside the guard to either side will spring a free guard or tackle if the DE fails to occupy two blockers. This is mostly because the backside guard can assist the center on blocking the nose tackle, or can pull. Ellis has proven he can't hold his ground against a double, and Coleman hasn't shown any value at all. I'd run off tackles all day long against this group. Their lack of legit DEs also leaves them empty on the interior pass rush on passing downs (where, like the Pats, they often trot out a 4-3 pass-rushing alignment).
The Jets would have been better off trying to grab Dorsey or Ellis in the draft instead of Gholston. This is a major hole that can be exploited, Jenkins or no Jenkins.
Mark you are slightly off the mark on the importance of the NT in a 3-4 scheme.
Yes, he like the two DEs are responsible for two gaps and that is a big piece, but the biggest task of the NT in the 3-4 is to simply occupy 2 blockers to keep the oline from putting a hat on the second level.
A great NT in the 3-4 creates space for the two ILB to operate and make plays. This is not as much of a concern for the DEs, espcially on the strong side.
So yes, the NT is the key cog that makes the 3-4 work.
In Jenkins case, I am not sure he is a great NT. His conditioning issues are well documented. I hope we see a lot of screen passes early in the game to get the big man running around.
Wear him down and then try to single him up and get a blocker down to the that second level.
Brian,
I understand your point, but I think you're underestimating the importance of the DE in occupying blockers. Not only is it the NT's job to keep guards away from the ILBs, but it's also the DE's. Like I mentioned in my last post, you can effectively block an NT with the backside guard and center, leaving your G and T available for the rest of the strong side blocking (not including the TE or FB, which often deals with the OLB). If your DE can be blocked out of the play with a single guy, then it leaves the guard able to block the ILB -- even though the NT has been doubled! This of course is just one example of the myriad of blocking schemes in the NFL. The crux of my argument is that all three linemen in a 3-4 better be able to handle a double, as they'll all be facing it. Although the NT, by virtue of being in the center of the line will face it more often. The Jets simply don't have DEs that can do the job.
To put it in perspective, the Pats are far more effective against the run with Seymour and Warren on the field instead of Green and Wright. Even with big Wilfork between.
I think the defense comes up big this week with Brady down. Pats win 17-10.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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