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Regular season provides the key

Email|Link|Comments (20) Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff September 2, 2008 12:45 PM

ANALYSIS

Patriots coach Bill Belichick held a conference call with reporters today (noon) and made the point that the regular season is the only time to get an accurate assessment of a team.

"I don't think you ever know what you have until you get into the regular season," he said. "Practices, preseason games, there is not enough game-planning and your opponents just don't attack you the way you're going to get attacked in the regular season. Sometimes you can get through preseason with no apparent problems in a certain area, but then you get into the regular season and people start putting stress in that area, or on a particular scheme that you're running and it can be a problem."

As Belichick spoke, the 2002 season came to mind as a perfect example.

The Patriots were coming off their surprising win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, had posted a 3-1 record in the preseason, and opened the regular season with two convincing wins -- 30-14 over the Steelers, and 44-7 over the Jets.

They looked unbeatable, and the next game on the schedule was a home date against the Kansas City Chiefs.

In that game, then-Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil seemed to expose some flaws in the Patriots' defense with a game-plan that taxed New England's edge-setters in the running game. New England held on for a 41-38 overtime win, but some considerable longer-term damage was done that day.

The Patriots ended up losing their next four games, and by the end of their 9-7 season had surrendered an average of 4.7 yards per carry, easily the worst mark in Belichick's first eight seasons as Patriots coach.

That season, I vividly remember watching opponents consistently try Chiefs-like running plays against the Patriots -- a fake handoff up the middle, followed by an end-around specifically comes to mind. It was a reminder of how the NFL is a copycat league, and when a future opponent sees something that gives a team trouble, it will almost certainly run a similar play to see if the team has corrected the problem.

So with season-opening action beginning this week, Belichick's point is well taken. The true identity of NFL teams soon will come into sharper focus.

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20 comments so far...

mike, do you think tom brady will play on sunday? just give an opinion please.

Posted by chris September 2, 08 12:55 PM

I'm not expecting a great season.

Too many holes in the secondary and OL, and a lack of passion amongst the players.

Posted by gick September 2, 08 01:05 PM

Hi Chris. Brady will play, in my opinion.
--MIke

Posted by Mike Reiss September 2, 08 01:38 PM

Gick,
I have yet to see a quality post by you. We'll see what happens and periodically remind you of it. This team will finish anywhere from 11-5 to 13-3, if you consider that a bad season then I guess you're right.

Posted by Nikos September 2, 08 01:42 PM

mike, how injured do you think tom really is? there was a report on nfljuice.com that tom would be out 2-4 weeks and that was a report from a "reliable source" with the initials E.B. how does brady look out there in practice because there are reports swirling that this is a season ending type of injury.

Posted by chris September 2, 08 02:03 PM

Nikos,

I can envision a defense that is soft against the run and gives up easy 8 yard passes every down by throwing to receivers camped out 5 yards in front of Hobbs and Earthwind Moreland. And an OL so porous that Moss can't take two steps downfield before a disinterested Brady is sacked while he's daydreaming about his next vacation.

Sure, they could still win 12-13 games since their schedule is so weak, but a super bowl? No way.

Posted by gick September 2, 08 02:09 PM

I laugh everytime I read this comment section because it's amazing how quickly people lose faith. Stop weighing the season on preseason results-the team is focused and will be a force this season!

Posted by Posterboy O September 2, 08 02:13 PM

Alright, i can't take it anymore...I usually applaud belicheck for his deception regarding injuries, but he has now officially caused some fans to go into panic mode because there is no real information out there. And when there is no information, people tend to make up there own like he will be out 2-4 weeks or that it is a season ending injury...

Brady is playing on sunday. Brady himself said he could have played in every game this preason. It is fairly obvious that in early preason the OL was not in very good shape so bill probably decided, you know what, lets not take any chances with the franchise in the next few weeks while this line meshes and we get some bodies back. We want to take a good hard look at Cassell and Gutt, so lets let them get the reps. Besides, brady and light, two of the most tenured patriots have played in almost every game over the last 5 years...that is a lot of mileage, do they really need 4 more preseason games to get ready?

Posted by Christian September 2, 08 02:20 PM

i guess gick's been asleep for the past 3 seasons, last time Earthwind Moreland played for the Pats was in 2004

Posted by PlanB September 2, 08 02:54 PM

I'm aware. Earthwind Moreland is a metaphor for all the CBs and Safeties they pull off the streets.

Posted by Gick September 2, 08 03:07 PM

Hi Mike...I was just wondering what U think about Brandon Meriweather's injury status. Did the Pats hold him out the rest of PreSeason as a precaution? I figure its not too bad since he isn't on Pup or IR...I was just wondering if U had any insider info about his status for the first game. Thanks

Posted by Psi September 2, 08 03:25 PM

Folks, Belichick is a true enthusiast of strategy and warfare. The man went on FBI stings for Christ's sake. You'll never know what's truly going on behind his closed locker-room doors because that's the genius of a true General. Prepare, conceal, and attack. It's that simple for war enthusiasts.

The NFL is the closest civilised game we have to what the Romans had going on in the colosseum. It's based on strategy and warfare.

Get over it. It's in our best interest and the team's best interest that the remaining NFL teams are left in the dark, as well as us fans, including the media, as to the goings on of the Patriots. Period!

It's not a game to some people, it's war.

Posted by Los Angeles September 2, 08 03:25 PM

Hi Chris & psi. I do think Brady has a legitimate sore right foot and it must be managed, likely throughout the year. Meriweather is not a season-ending type deal, naturally. My colleague Christopher Gasper had noted that previously. His sense is that Meriweather will be back sooner rather than later. He doesn't have a specific timeframe but I think we're talking days/weeks instead of months.
--Mike

Posted by Mike Reiss September 2, 08 04:00 PM

Remember last preseason when the Tennesee killed the pats and hit brady more
than anybody but the giants . everyone said there o-line stinks and they cant move the ball . Remember? 50td later it ment nothing. If Samuel makes that catch were
saying how good the o-line came threw in the fourth QTR on the game winning drive of the super bowl. because they did.

Posted by Cerrone September 2, 08 05:08 PM

Nikos who made you the board police
This team will finish anywhere from 11-5 to 13-3 your opinoin

Too many holes in the secondary and OL, and a lack of passion amongst the players.
Gick's opinion
And for goodness sake people putting Brady behind the pre-season OL would have been as bad an idea as Wes returning pre-season punts.
I for one am glad our players dont set in the locker room like Chad Johnson saying how they will play thats is BB's call at all times.

Posted by Rog September 2, 08 07:11 PM

Well, I for one am expecting a very interesting and exciting season, especially on defense. They have an intriguing mix of veteran and youth, plus, with the return of Seymour back to health (fingers crossed), everything could begin to come together very nicely for that unit by mid-season. I'm sure that there will be some growing pains, but with an offense like the one they have, this is the perfect season to give some young players extensive playing time on defense. It's an ideal scenario to get them acclimated to the NFL and just in time for the playoffs! Think about it Gick, you should be excited instead of moping around all the time. Oh, and don't forget about the Dom Capers influence on the defense as well!

Posted by Erik September 2, 08 09:36 PM

Leave Gick alone. Gick takes more anti-depressants than Joe Biden's hair follicle replacement plan. His misery and pessimism on this board is good therapy for his form of sociopathy. While I agree his posts are absolutely bereft of substance, they are a source of entertainment and they are good therpy for him.

Go Pats - SB bound

Posted by J.P. September 2, 08 11:58 PM

The Patriots' schedule is a joke. It's the easiest in the NFL. The first couple of the games of the regular season are being treated like pre-season games.

There's a zero percent chance that KC can beat the Patriots. Even if the Pats played as poorly as possible and the Chiefs played as well as possible, the Chiefs cannot win.

Brady's foot is fine.

Posted by Mike September 3, 08 02:11 AM

Hi Mike,

If Brady has a sore foot, Welker has sore ribs and Faulk is suspended, are we looking at the Laurence Maroney show this weekend? Wouldn't be a bad thing if the Pats could lean on their running game when they need it.

Posted by Jim September 3, 08 03:34 AM

... We're going to have a good season -- REVENGE...

Posted by Steve September 3, 08 04:25 AM

DO NOT HIT THE SUBMIT BUTTON MORE THAN ONCE!

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Mike Reiss, Christopher L. Gasper and the rest of the Globe team provide regular updates –and a behind-the-scenes look– on the daily happenings of the Patriots.

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