The Patriots (5-2) visit the Colts (3-4) on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, and here are five points of note about the Colts:
1) Colts seeing yellow; and not enough of the ball. Referees have flagged the Colts for a staggering 51 accepted penalties (compared to the Patriots' 22). Another key statistic that has hurt the Colts is time of possession, as they are being out-possessed 33:19-26:41. Only two other teams in the NFL (Seahawks, Lions) have such a wide margin in the wrong direction.
2) A different type of Peyton Manning. Annually one of the NFL's most accurate passers, Peyton Manning is completing just 61.1 percent of his passes, putting him on pace for his lowest percentage since his rookie season in 1998. Manning already has nine interceptions on the season, which equals his total from the team's 2006 Super Bowl season. Manning's struggles have led to speculation he is still ailing from offseason knee surgery, although he hasn't been listed on the team's injury report.
3) Speed defines defense. With ends Dwight Freeney (3 sacks) and Robert Mathis (5 sacks) pressuring off the edge, and a defense filled with smaller, active players, the Colts can cover ground quickly. This will create blocking challenges for the Patriots. The return of safety Bob Sanders, who is often put in position to make plays in the Colts' defense, should aid Indianapolis.
4) Fast starters. While the Colts haven't enjoyed the type of season they hoped to this point, the start of games haven't been a problem. The Colts are outscoring foes 51-19 in the first quarter, having scored first in four of their seven games. Their problem has been what's happened after that -- as they've been outscored 55-17 in the second quarter and 44-28 in the third.
5) Not much action for Vinatieri. Kicker Adam Vinatieri is 5 of 8 on the season, his misses coming from 30 and 49, while a 45-yarder was blocked. No team has attempted fewer field goals.
ANALYSIS: Both teams have battled significant injuries, and the Patriots have overcome them better at this point. The Colts figure to play with desperation, as they're already four games back in the AFC South and can't afford another loss. Their speed on defense projects to give the Patriots trouble, and a big question will be if the Patriots can get the ball to Wes Welker and Randy Moss to exploit favorable matchups on the outer edges of the field. Defensively, the Patriots can expect to see running back Joseph Addai, but their greater concern is likely to be how the pass defense holds up. While the Colts aren't as consistently explosive as they've been in the past, they can still hurt defenses down the field. The Patriots will likely be playing most of the game in sub packages, so generating pressure to help the secondary will be imperative. Prediction: Colts 20, Patriots 10.
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Mike,
I don't like your prediction... but, I agree. The Colts have to be desparate and this is in their dome. Let's hope Lamont Jordan can get enough tough yards to keep the Patriots offense on the field and wear down the Colts smaller defense. The Patriots look real good in deciding to keep 5 backs coming out of camp.
I look for the young secondary shows some more improvement this week. My biggest question is, who will cover Clark? I don't think there is enough safety depth to move Meriwether. I'm wondering if AD is fast enough to do it, or will that take too much away from the pass rush? Maybe the Patriots play a 2-5 defense to get some extra speed. The Colts lack of success running the ball is enticing to try something like that.
Mike? Colts 20 - Pats 10? I was one who was fairly concerned going into the SB last year, so I'm not simply a rose-colored-glasses-wearing-yahoo, but I'm taking the Pats with the 5.5 points. It's a pretty good bet, especially with the DBs hurting for the Colts, and I'm thinking the Pats can pull out another squeaker in Indy.
I'll be surprised if Addai plays more than half the game, and while Sanders is always tough (what a talent in such a small package!) he's not only day-to-day, but play-to-play. If Wayne can't play, that makes it even easier for our secondary to focus on the big 2 (Harrison and Clark) so I do see a lower scoring game than last year's 24-20 Pats vic, which makes the 5.5 even bigger.
One question - when the hell are we going to see the Colts come back and play in Foxboro like men, rather than hiding in their cozy dome like sheep every year? ; )
Mike:
You've been right on with your picks this year (except Miami) and I'm afraid you're right on this one too. The Colts are desparate and will pull it together at home this Sunday. Pains me to say it. I hope we're wrong.
Yea, I have to agree with you Mike about the prediction. I can see this game similar to the San Diego one, since the Colts are so desperate to win.
Even if Wayne is out (and i doubt it), Anthony Gonzales can do some damages too.
The Colts has struggled, but look at their schedule, it has been much much tougher than the Pats.
1 9/07 vs. Chi L 29-13
2 9/14 @ Min W 18-15
3 9/21 vs. Jac L 23-21
4 Bye Week
5 10/5 @ Hou W 31-27
6 10/12 vs. Bal W 31-3
7 10/19 @ GB L 34-14
8 10/27 @ Ten L 31-21
This year’s Pat's would have a hard time going 3 and 4 with this Schedule. Also Manning was not 100% in their first game loss to Chicago and Jacksonville won on a last second field goal. Plus they crushed Baltimore in there last home game.
Mike,
I think your prediction is right on, but if the Pat's get down early it could get ugly. We have shown a tendency to quit once they get down. Colts by 10 or more if the Pat’s throw in the towel.
I'm not sure which Pats team will show up, the one who played Miami or the one who played Denver. Clearly, you think the Miami team will show up this weekend.
I would just like to point out one very important truth in NFL football: EVERY season, 31 teams lose a game "they can't afford to lose".
pats by 10!!!! feel the magic baby!!
Granted, it will be tougher with Addai and Sanders playing, but we'll eke out a win... hopefully....
Mike,
I appreciate the honest, un-biased reporting. I too have worries about this game. We will be able to move the ball on this defence, I do not question that.
What morries me is our pass defence against Peyton Manning. He is one of the best to play the game and the master in the hoodie is going to have to find a way to get pressure and keep Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne in check. Find a way to ues AD Thomasds to ru rush the passer and have someone else cover Clark in the slot.
Patriots 23, Colts 17
Pats 27, Colts 23 (especially if Wayne is limited)
GO PATS
What should be noted is that the Colts beat the Vikings and the Texans by flukey plays/actions by their opponent. They should be 1-6. However, they are always dangerous.
Sam's got it right. This is a shell of the 2003 - 2007 Colts. The defnsive leabilites are exposed and the usualy high-flying offense is missing in action. Also, their new stadium isn't anything close to the home advantage of the RCA dome. Just the one win in 3 tries.
If the Patriots team that shows up is the one that doesn't beat itself - and they contain Wayne & Clark sufficiently despite a patchwork secondary - then Pats have as good a chance as last year to beat Colts this Sunday in Indy.
Pats 23 - 21
Pats 23 - Colts 21, Gosto wins it as time runs out!!
Pats all the way baby!!! There is no way manning can pull a miracle , even at the dome and with cassel in the game. 21-10 Pats!!!!
If Wayne is limited, the Colts are done. Colts are lucky they are not 1-6 at this point in the season.
Colts Schedule
1 9/07 vs. Chi L 29-13
2 9/14 @ Min W 18-15 (lucky they won)
3 9/21 vs. Jac L 23-21
4 Bye Week
5 10/5 @ Hou W 31-27 (lucky they won)
6 10/12 vs. Bal W 31-3
7 10/19 @ GB L 34-14
8 10/27 @ Ten L 31-21
Colts
Pats can manage the possession better than the colts can. The pats are not as penalty prone. The colts will be slinging the ball out of desperation to score when they finally get the ball. The pats will be keeping it cool by keeping the ball 35 minutes of the game while Cassel passes for over 300 yards (most of them coming off screen routs). The media has always given the colts too much credit. Heck, last week, half the media was picking them to beat the titans. This is not going to be a close game. The pats are hitting stride, the colts are unravelling. Pats 31, Colts 13.
too bad about Lucas oil field..I'll take the RCA dome; check the pats record there since the Colts move...of course not counting the last game of the 2006 campaign.
Look I now live in Indianapolis so I see the Colts every week. Heck I even endure Blue Friday at my work during the season. Here's the deal, the left side of the Colts O-Line is getting pushed. Marvin Harrison does not get separaton down field because most CBs are now faster than him. Reggie Wayne is [weak], he is so afaid of being hit he drops balls. Dallas Clark & Anthony Gonzales are the weapons to stop. Colts run game is marginal. Yeah they may be desperate but guess what they have been desperate for the last 2 weeks and it is not helping. Fact is this is a small team that can be beat by physicality and long drives.
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