The Patriots (5-3) host the Bills (5-3) on Sunday, and here are some things that stand out from Buffalo's season to this point:
1) Injuries starting to mount on defense. The Bills are expected to be without two top players on defense -- DE Aaron Schobel (foot) and S Donte Whitner (shoulder). The speed-rushing Schobel was annually a tough matchup for left tackle Matt Light, while Whitner, a former first-round pick, quarterbacks the secondary. Whitner had been covering the slot receiver in recent weeks with CB Ashton Youboty (foot) out, and with Youboty's status in doubt for Sunday, the Bills could be down to their third option (possibly rookie CB Reggie Corner) against dangerous WR Wes Welker.
2) Cooling after a fast start. After opening 4-0, the Bills are 1-3 in their last four games. The last two losses have come in the AFC East -- at Miami and vs. the Jets -- with head coach Dick Jauron noting that 3-4 defenses played by the Dolphins and Jets have posed some difficult challenges. At times, the Bills' offensive line has been overmatched against bigger-bodied players from those 3-4 alignments. The Patriots play a similar-style defense.
3) More accurate play at quarterback. Second-year man Trent Edwards has seized the starting quarterback job this season and part of the reason is his ability to make accurate throws. He's completing 68 percent of his passes, which ranks fifth among NFL quarterbacks. For perspective, former Bills starter J.P. Losman completed 62.5 percent of his passes in 2006 when he started all 16 games.
4) Too much charity. The Bills enter the game with a minus-5 turnover differential (11 take-aways; 16 give-aways), ranking them 27th in the NFL. Ball security has been an issue (10 lost fumbles), specifically at quarterback (6 lost fumbles between Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman).
5) Top special teams always a consideration. In addition to specialists Rian Lindell (kicker) and Brian Moorman (punter), the Bills have had some of the NFL's best coverage and return units in the NFL under special teams coach Bobby April. Roscoe Parrish is a dangerous punt returner (13.2 avg,; 3rd in the NFL).
ANALYSIS:The Bills would like to generate more of a running game with Marshawn Lynch (3.5 avg. per carry), and also develop a more reliable No. 2 option at receiver opposite Lee Evans (team-high 35 catches). Those areas will be important Sunday, because the Patriots figure to be keyed in on both players. It is almost a certainty that they will roll a safety to Evans' side regularly, forcing Bills quarterback Trent Edwards to look elsewhere. Defensively, the Patriots' front seven (and even front six in sub packages) has been stout against the run and they'll count on that to continue against Lynch. Offensively, the Bills are tougher to run against than past seasons (3.8 avg. per carry surrendered), but there should be opportunities in the passing game (last two opposing QBs completed 70.6 percent of their passes). Special teams are always a concern. Prediction: Patriots 23, Bills 17.
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