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Dolphins in focus

Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff November 21, 2008 07:45 AM

The Patriots (6-4) visit the Dolphins (6-4) in a crucial AFC East game Sunday, and here are five areas of note on the Dolphins:

  • 1) They don't turn the ball over. Miami rarely beats itself. The team's eight turnovers (5 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles) are the fewest in the NFL. Part of that is tied to success on first down, where the Dolphins are averaging 6.09 yards per play (3rd in the NFL). So they stay in manageable situations on second and third down.

  • 2) Not much blitzing, but no shortage of pressure/sacks. The Dolphins haven't been a big blitz team this season, more often staying with the standard four rushers and dropping seven into coverage. Yet they've still been effective getting to the quarterback (27 sacks), with outside linebacker Joey Porter's 13.5 sacks leading the NFL. For perspective, the Patriots have totaled 19 sacks this season; the ferocious Giants 31.

  • 3) Vulnerabilities on special teams. Opponents have seized opportunities to hurt the Dolphins on special teams. Miami ranks 31st in the NFL in average punt return allowed (16.4 yard avg.; 2 TDs), and 32nd in average kickoff return allowed (27.3 yard avg.). On the flip side, the Dolphins' kickoff return game ranks last in the NFL (19.5 yard avg).

  • 4) Can't forget about the Wildcat. The Dolphins have run 59 plays out of the formation in which running back Ronnie Brown takes a direct snap from center. They are averaging 7.1 yards per play, with eight touchdowns in the package. So while the Wildcat is just a small fraction of what the Dolphins do, their success and big results demands that opponents spend the necessary time preparing for it.

  • 5) Strong in the red zone. Solid play inside the 20 yard line -- on both offense and defense -- has been a significant part of the Dolphins' success this season. They rank sixth in the NFL in TD percentage on offense -- with 17 touchdowns in 28 trips (60.7 percent). On defense, they are tough to score touchdowns against -- with opponents totaling 15 in 30 trips (50 percent), which ranks 13th in the NFL. This is an area where the Dolphins have a clear advantage over the Patriots entering the game.

    ANALYSIS: While the Wildcat package has helped spark the Dolphins' turnaround, and is a key factor for any opponent to contain, Miami is tough in other areas too. They have been efficient capitalizing on their own opportunities, while limiting opponents' chances (e.g. 9th in the NFL defensively on third down). So in other words, if a team is going to beat the Dolphins, it will have to beat them -- the Dolphins seldom beat themselves. The Patriots have favorable matchups in the passing game, so the key will be: Can the protection hold up to give Matt Cassel and his pass-catchers a chance to exploit those? Defensively, it appears to be a week of highlighting the basics: Stop the run, try to put the opponent in second-and-long and third-and-long, be prepared for when the Wildcat strikes, and rise up in the red zone. Opportunities should be there on special teams, and it helps that the Patriots have had extra time to prepare for this one. Prediction: Patriots 20, Dolphins 17. (Season record on Patriots' predictions: 8-2)

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    19 comments so far...

    1. Ummm, sorry Mike it won't be close. Miami is clearly the superior theam in this matchup and it will show on Sunday.

      Posted by Bob Griese November 21, 08 11:46 AM

    1. ur about to go 8-3 for the year

      Fins 20 - Pats 9

      Posted by Ty Frazier November 21, 08 01:40 PM

    1. Bob Griese is a hack. Michigan sucks.

      Posted by SJB November 21, 08 02:16 PM

    1. Changes between this match up and the last.
      1. Matt Cassell has improved dramatically. Last time Joey Porter ate him for lunch and he moved poorly in the pocket. He has improved dramatically since then.
      2. No wildcat surprise factor. Something like half the fins offense came from the 6 or 7 wildcat plays they ran, for which the patriots had no answer. This week the wildcat will still be a challenge, but the patriots will have prepared for it.
      3. Chad Pennington settled in. I mention this to counterbalance #1, because Chad Pennington has also become more familiar with his team. Because of his experience was greater to begin with, he has not improved as much as Cassell, but it will still is a factor.
      4. Fins on tape. Last time around there was little film available showing how Sparano would run the game with this team. That is no longer the case and Belicheck can prepare better.
      5. RBs. Last time the Patriots had Jordan and Morris. Not sure about this time around and whether Morris can play 100%. If Morris can play the way he did against Denver, the patriots will control the clock and wear down the dolphins D.

      I see this as a close game, but I think this game is the patriots to lose.

      Posted by Justin_R November 21, 08 02:46 PM

    1. Bob Griese never went to Michigan...that was his son get it right

      Posted by No one November 21, 08 03:03 PM

    1. Pats crush fins 31-10 , revenge is sweet ! The good guys win again!

      Posted by Tom Joad November 21, 08 03:52 PM

    1. Phins beat up the pats and then win the division with a fake spike versus the jets!!

      Posted by Don November 21, 08 04:26 PM

    1. Good guys win?

      Need I mention spygate?

      The real good guys win a close game, Dolphins 24 Patriots 20

      Posted by Tyler November 21, 08 04:32 PM

    1. Thanks No one. Only a dumb NE fan would criticize Brady's alma mater. As for me, you know I attended Purdue.

      Posted by Bob Griese November 21, 08 04:33 PM

    1. Bob Griese, don't worry about the Pats. You and I need to start harassing Tennessee and derail their undefeated season. Hey, Mercury Morris, start calling ESPN!

      Posted by Don Shula November 21, 08 04:38 PM

    1. Yawn...AFC Footbal sux

      Posted by Joe November 21, 08 05:50 PM

    1. Griese went to Purdue. Patriot fans will be crying again on Sunday night....Dolphins 27 Patriots 17

      Posted by Victor Ruotolo November 21, 08 05:52 PM

    1. CLOSE GAME,BUT A SOLD OUT DOLPHIN STADIUM MAKES THE DIFF ....MIAMI WINS 24-17. QMANN

      Posted by QUENT RUSK November 21, 08 06:14 PM

    1. Miami don't turn the ball over (adv. Dolphins), Miami 27 sacks to N.E. 19 (adv. Miami), "Vulnerabilities" (I like this word) on special teams (adv. Patriots) 59 plays on the wild cat formation, 7.1 ypp (sounds very good) 17 td in 28 trips RZ on offense (nice ah) 15 td in 30 trips RZ on defense (not bad at all) and you still give the game to the Pats, somethings wrong with you Mike. FINS 31 Pats 20.

      Posted by Delgado November 21, 08 07:51 PM

    1. Ahh com'n guys (and ladies), Dolphins at home with beautiful weather and a sellout crowd. I'll be watching the Pats blow it from my very fine stadium seat.
      Sooo long Pats...seeya in the rear view

      Posted by Howard Twilly November 22, 08 09:47 AM

    1. Who are these dorks from Miami on the Globe website? I didn't know that FL natives (if there are any) knew how to read.

      Posted by Mud Buzzard November 22, 08 01:38 PM

    1. wow.... haters really have nothing better to do but to log onto a Boston website and antogonize Pats fans. You're a sour bunch you miami fans. Is it because you're team has sucked for about a decade? Or is it because the baseball team down there that no one cares about has won twice has many chapionships in 10 years than the dolphins have in their existence?

      Posted by Bones November 22, 08 03:00 PM

    1. Who are these dorks from Miami on the Globe website? I didn't know that FL natives (if there are any) knew how to read.

      Posted by Mud Buzzard November 22, 08 06:24 PM

    1. I heard on NFL.com (I think it was there) that the Fins average only 18 points a game at home.

      If Cassell delivers another 400 yard performance, plus with Morris back and playing healthy, and more time to adjust to the loss of Harrison and Thomas, I don't see how the Pats can fail to make this a close game.

      I'm going to hold my breath on the first wildcat play for certain, though. I wonder if the pats get the ball first, will they try to run it against Miami? That would be pure Belicheck if they did.

      Posted by Justin-R November 22, 08 09:44 PM
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