The Patriots (6-3) host the Jets (6-3) at Gillette Stadium tonight, and here are five aspects of note regarding the Jets:
1) Turnovers are telling. When the Jets win the turnover battle or are even, they're 4-0 this season. When they lose the turnover battle, they're 2-3, with the wins over the Bengals and Chiefs. On the season, the Jets have 17 give-aways (only six teams have more). But they're plus-7 in turnover differential in their last two games, both strong wins.
2) Turnaround with rushing offense. In 2006, Eric Mangini's first year as head coach, the Jets averaged 3.5 yards per carry. In 2007, the rush offense averaged 3.8. This season, through nine games, the Jets average 4.7. Running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are an effective 1-2 combination and the team's revamped offensive line -- which features four first-round draft choices -- can be tough to handle at times.
3) Tough to run on. Opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season against the Jets' defense, as nose tackle Kris Jenkins helps anchor a hard-to-move defensive front. Only four teams are better than the Jets in that category. That run defense has contributed to the Jets' strong play on first down, as they rank third in the NFL in fewest average yards allowed on first down (4.37).
4) Firing it up in the first quarter. The Jets have jumped on the scoreboard early, as their 61 points in the first quarter are more than double the Patriots' output (30). Only three teams have scored more in the opening quarter.
5) Leon Washington a 'special' threat. Running back Leon Washington handles both kickoff and punt returns, and the Jets, in terms of average, rank sixth in the NFL in both categories. Washington averages 26.8 yards per kickoff return and 12.9 yards per punt return.
ANALYSIS: When assessing the game, the Jets appear to have more favorable matchups when it comes to their offense against the Patriots' defense. But those favorable matchups won't matter if quarterback Brett Favre doesn't play mistake-free football, and in the end, the result figures to hinge on if the Patriots can force Favre into the bad mistake he's often prone to making. Two seasons ago, almost to the day, the Jets came into Gillette Stadium on a rainy day and posted a surprising victory. Tonight's forecast also calls for rain, although the feeling here is that it helps the Patriots in part because Favre's ball security is always a concern for the Jets. Both teams figure to have trouble running the ball, as both defenses are especially strong in that area. Special teams and the battle for field position should play a major role as well. This one has all the makings of a classic slugfest -- and also a mental chess match -- that could go either way. Prediction: Patriots 16, Jets 13 (OT).
Comment
Permalink
Email
If Pierre Woods played like he did last week (keep missing tackles), the Pats are in trouble.
I agree Mike. Punters and kickers decide this one. A low scoring game that comes down to the wire with the Pats winning (no OT please, I have to be at work early tomorrow). Both teams will need the extra time off that the short week brings.
Sorry Pats fans. Be prepared to see the harsh reality tonight when the Jets take it to the Patriots. ... I like Law for a pick if the 4th quarter to seal the win. Ha Ha.
Matt Cassel is the X-factor in this game. He is improving every week and there's no reason to believe that trend won't continue again this week. Ty Law on Wes Welker...... are you kidding me? The Pats have the short passing game to offset the Jets great run defense. Favre could win this thing all by himself, but he's more apt to lose it. I like that Pats 24-13.
mike,
any idea if a local station in the providence market is televising the game tonight, or is it strictly the NFLN?
Hi Chris. The game is on NFL Network, Channel 5 in Boston and Channel 11 in New York. I believe it can be watched online at NFL.com as well, but am not totally certain of that. I am not aware of any more options.
--Mike
crash the jets! pats nation in sofla
Gang green keep dreaming....I'll give all you jests fan sumthing to chomp on.....BB in his tenure here is 17-2 when facing an opponent the 2nd time...now add farvray into the mix ...you see the writing on the wall....Not a chance jests fans....Patriots all the way....oh and by the way..I dont think Ty Law makes it to the fourth quarter.....27-3 PATS!!!
You have to admire the Patriots for their consistency and their ability to overcome adversity. This is absolutely a pick'em game.
The foul weather should help the Jets more than the Pats, because the Jets can win games on the ground (only 19 passes last week in the 47-3 win over the Rams), whereas if the Pats can't run, the Jets' defensive front will almost certainly be able to harrass Cassel.
Lots of 3 and outs in tonight's game.
As a 40-year Jets fan I have lived through a great deal of disappointment. I never get too high or too low. This year's team looks to be headed in the right direction, perhaps ready to take their place among the elite. They are up against a very wounded Pats squad which might be ripe for the picking. The Jets have shown a steadiness this season which is not common for them. If they can be steady tonight - limit turnovers, penalties and mental mistakes - they can claim their third road win inside the division, a season sweep of critical importance to their playoff chances.
The loser of this game will have to examine themselves. Are we good enough? Is this perhaps not our year?
I agree with Pats fans who believe they can win. I agree with Jets fans who think they can win. I consider anybody who expects a blowout to be a bit loony.
My pick:
Jets 20. Pats 19.
Walt Bennett
(Allow me to please take back the parts about "lots of 3 and outs..I believe there was exactly one in the first half, when the Jets got cautious and let the Pats score at the end of the half...)
Everything else was as good as I could have hoped. Win or lose, the Jets showed that they can perform at a high level in a big game.
Of course, win is better. We do, after all, have the Titans at their place next week.
Oy.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
Patriots Twitter
ask reiss
Questions will be considered for Mike's mailbagbrowse this blog
by categoryINside Boston.com
in the area