The New England Patriots (9-5) host the Arizona Cardinals (8-6) on Sunday, and here are five items of note on the Cardinals:
1) Most unbalanced offensive team in the NFL. The Cardinals have attempted 560 passes and totaled 306 rushing plays, easily making them the league’s most unbalanced offensive team through Week 15 games. The difference of 254 plays is 64 more than the next closest club (New Orleans), which helps explain Arizona's No. 32 ranking in rushing yards per game (73.1) and rushing average (3.3).
2) NFC West champions for the first time since ’75. Second-year head coach Ken Whisenhunt has the Cardinals headed in the right direction, but even he acknowledges that the team is still in a building process. The Cardinals clinched their first division title since 1975 with a 34-10 victory over the Rams on Dec. 7, then showed they had trouble handling prosperity by dropping a 35-14 decision at home to the Vikings. They are 5-0 in division play and 3-5 against the rest of their schedule, which is a significant stat given how weak the NFC West is this season.
3) Top assets are outside the hashmarks. Receivers Anquan Boldin (89 catches, 1,038 yards, 11 TDs) and Larry Fitzgerald (88 catches, 1,200 yards, 9 TDs) are one of the NFL’s better 1-2 combinations – and veteran quarterback Kurt Warner has been efficient in putting them in position to make plays -- while rookie cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (3 INTs) is a rising star on defense and special teams.
4) They can take the ball away. The Cardinals have totaled 27 takeaways this season (league-high 16 fumble recoveries to go with 11 interceptions), which ranks in a tie for fourth in the NFL. That reflects their ball-stripping defensive style.
5) Change at punter came with bad weather in mind. Arizona switched punters, from Dirk Johnson to Ben Graham, with four games remaining in the season. One of the reasons was with a New England-like game in mind, where field position could be crucial. “That aspect of the game we had not been as good as we need to be and hopefully Ben will give us that as we go forward,” said coach Ken Whisenhunt. Overall, the Cardinals’ special teams units rank in the lower third of the NFL.
ANALYSIS: Elements could be a significant factor with snow potentially in the forecast. Given the Cardinals’ heavy emphasis on the pass, those conditions would appear to be an advantage for the Patriots. How the Cardinals approach this game will be interesting to watch unfold, given that they’ve clinched a playoff spot, are making a long trip, and will be playing in tough conditions. In one respect, they want to generate some positive momentum heading into the playoffs. In another respect, they might rest some key players (Anquan Boldin, J.J. Arrington) who are ailing. Quarterback Kurt Warner has been one of the NFL’s best against the blitz, so it’s unlikely that the Patriots bring extra rushers on a consistent basis. They’ll probably pick their spots carefully, while working to disguise coverages in an attempt to disrupt the rhythm of the passing game. On the opposite side, the Patriots’ offense must contend with the Cardinals’ speed, but should have opportunities to own the line of scrimmage. Prediction: Patriots 24, Cardinals 17.
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Mike, why is your pick here NE and under "staff picks" it's Arizona?
Hi Jay. Those "staff picks" are against the point spread, which in this game is 7.5 points. I felt that was high, given the possible bad weather. We get those questions a lot from readers who might think we are picking the games straight-up and not against the point spread.
--Mike
Arizona looks like the exact opposite type of team then Oakland. They play right into the Pats weaknesses. I hope we get so much snow Warner can't see more then 10 yards down field.
Hey Mike ....... I sort of think in opposite terms. Unless there is a lot of wind, I think bad weather favors the passing game. Defensive backs have a tougher time reacting to receivers' cuts and offesive lines have an easier time blocking against defensive linemen who can't plant and push. Of course, the field turf helps but if it is snow covered and slippery, it could mean trouble for defenses. Since the Pats don't have to worry too much about the run, they can focus on pass defense, but the Cardinals' attack certainly will exploit the Pats' secondary if there is no pressure on Warner.
This is it. This game, right here. If we win, I say we will be in the playoff. If we lose, we are done. The thoughts of Boldin and Fitzgerald on the field at the same time scare me.
This might be a good game to trot out the 4 man line and man up on the receivers...
Mike:
I agree with your pick but I am also interested in who you think will win the Jets vs. Seahawks, and Dolphins vs. Chiefs games. I think both AFC East teams win, unfortunately. Too much on the line for them and too little for the opponents. Playing for pride only carries you so far.
Mike, have you picked against the Patriots once this year?
Hi Jim L. I picked the Seahawks against the point spread. Wouldn't be surprised if they win, but I'd have to take the Jets right now. Frank S., my season record on predicting Patriots games is 11-3. So yes, I have picked against the Patriots, losing to the Chargers and Colts. The games I predicted them to win that they lost were against the Dolphins, Jets and Steelers.
--Mike
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