Deion Branch trade revisited

Branch was a good guy but he could not have "put them over the top". Were you watching the second half on the AFC title game? Indy was coming back and the Pats defense could not stop them.

Did you just ask if Mike Reiss watched the 2nd half of the game? As many loyal readers can attest, I'm sure he's watched it forwards, backwards (just in case he may suffer from dyslexia), and at every volume/bass level to see if there's hidden subliminal messages.
Seriously though, I like to say the Pats essentially traded Branch for Randy Moss. The Branch trade gave the Pats TWO first rd picks...as many predicted, its not like the Pats to give 1st round-type money to two players and one pick would be traded down...which they did. They received the Niners' 4th rd pick, which was then dealt to Oakland for Randy Moss. No Branch trade...then we draft Stomper Merriweather, no Moss, and that's it. I thank the Seahawks' mngmt for not understanding draft pick value.

Mike, I normally love your analysis but you are way off here. The Pats had a 21 point half time lead in that Colts game. Sure Caldwell dropped some catchable passes but it was the defense that let the team down that day. Secondly as you mentioned, the Patriots would never have gotten Welker or Moss if they had kept Branch. Those players were a key force behind the 2007 almost perfect season. Reversely, Branch has been a huge bust for Seattle. Even Coach Holmgren basically admitted that. I bet there isn't a single Pats fan out there would would rather have the constantly injured Branch over Moss and Welker.

Branch gets open on 3rd down at the end of the game to seal it, that I would bet on.

Great stuff Mike. I wasn't thinking about it but it's an interesting topic and another example of how you out-work your peers

dee: I'm going to have to disagree with you here and I think the fact that the Pats added Gaffney half way during that season & three high quality receivers immediately in free agency is an indication of how the organization saw the receiving situation.

The problem with the AFC Championship game was the D was on the field for so long. I remember thinking immediately following the Asante TD INT that we may have been better served if he had been caught before he reached the endzone. It prolonged the defensive stay on the field; the Colts then finished the first half with a long drive, received to open the second half and had another long drive. If the offense could have stayed on the field longer (which you assume we could have done had Caldwell caught a wide open pass) the Colts would not have been able to catch up mutiple times. If you insert Branch, or frankly Givens, anywhere you have to assume he's worth a first down or two somewhere along the way.

The only moment in the game I thought we had it won was when the Pats seemed to be driving towards the end of the first half, a long pass that brought us inside their 30 was called back creating a Third and very long. We didn't really have a solid drive the rest of the game other than a TD following a long kick return.

this column is nonsense. the season came down to WRETCHED CALDWELL dropping two highly catchable passes in the Colts game. if he holds onto either one, we very likely go to the AFC playoffs.

Appreciate the dialogue here. All fair points. As noted in the original entry, it is mentioned that the defense couldn't close the deal. What I'm saying is that if Branch is on the team, they're a bit better than the 12-4 record and maybe that playoff game is in Foxborough and not Indianapolis. I'm not boiling it down to that one final game in Indy, but looking at the complete picture.
--Mike

This the way , I see it,

Keeping Branch = Super Bowl and No Mayo

Yeah, I have to agree that the trade also impacted the decision to trade down the second 1st, which got us Moss and Mayo. While it would have been nice to win the Super Bowl in 2006, that trade set up our Super Bowl in 2007 and gave us the LB we're going to be anchoring a LB corps with for the next several years. I think there's no doubt that we made out better than the Seahawks, it's just a question of whether the short-term gain would have been better than the slightly longer-term gain.

I am going to have to disagree with you guys here. I love Mayo and Moss. However the superbowl in 2006 (2007 really) would have put the PATs Dynasty over the top. Yes, we had a chance a year later, but that would have cemented Brady, BB and PATs legacy as the Team they were. You have to take advantage when you are there because You never know about the next year.

Let face it I loved Deion Branch he was a very nice person and a very good football player. But when David Givens was given the stupid contract by the titans the writing was on the wall. The Pats were smart to let both Givens and Branch go. No where in your article did you cover the cap implications of giving Givens and Branch a large unfriendly to the salary cap contracts. I loved Adam Vinatieri as a person and as a football player but the cap hit would hut them too. Stephen Gostkowski has worked out well. Remember Branch refused to honor his contract.
The Pats should have signed Deion and Asante Samuel earlier. Like TY Warren

i would still rather have a healthy david givens. givens was clutch big time in the playoffs. not that branch wasen't but i just personally though givens was a bit better.

One MAJOR point I think Mike missed in the story was that because of the Branch trade, the Patriots ultimately were able to select Jerod Mayo and trade for Randy Moss. The Patriots had 2 first round draft picks in 2007 due to the Deon Branch trade. Because the Pats had Seattle's first rounder (Used to pick Meriweather), they were able to trade their own first rounder for the 49ers first round pick in 2008 and a 2007 forth round pick (Later traded for Randy Moss). That 2008 first rounder the Pats received in the the trade from the 49'ers turned into the 6th overall pick, which was used to select Jerod Mayo. I think at the end of the day, it turned out to be a fantastic trade.

Mike, I love your work but I agree with #3. Your're way off here. This is how I look at it.
1) Looking back the key question is " Is Branch worth $36MM to the Patriots?" The answer is a clear NO
2) The Patriots not only saved $36MM they also got an extra draft pick out of it
3) The Pats used that pick on Merryweather, who still has tons of potential
4) Having the extra pick gave them the flexiblity to trade the 2nd pick , which resulted in Mayo
5) The extra #4 pick also resulted in getting Moss. (of course they can only afford Moss and his 22 TDs last year because they saved the $36MM)
So net - net, the Pats
GAIN
1) extra cap room
2) randy Moss
3)Mayo

LOSE:
Branch and his 30ish catches a year

How is this bad?

Branch didn't allow the greatest playoff comeback by Indy in 2006. The funny thing is if the Patriots won that game, they most likely would have beaten Chicago by 2 touchdowns in the Superbowl. Imagine Reche Caldwell hoisting the Lombardi trophy....

The funny thing about all the coulda-shoulda-s is that it's impossible to know. If they had a better receiving corps, perhaps they would have made a few more first downs in the second half of the AFC title game, depriving Indy of the time to mount that comeback. You just never can tell. I simply think that you have to look at the overall competitiveness of the Pats year after year and realize that the owner-gm-coach tandem is pretty much the best in the league, and generally believe they'll be right more often than wrong.

Love the analysis, Mike. These kinds of articles are why I check Reiss' pieces so oftne.

If you compare a healthy Branch to Meriweather, then I think Seattle got the better deal. If you compare a hurt Branch to Meriweather, it's even. If you stir Moss and Welker into the discussion, you don't need to pay that kind of money for a number 3 receiver.

Mike is totally right. The thing that has been hurting in the last three years has been the defense (linebackers too slow before they got Thomas, no secondary to speak of). This is why they lost both the AFC Championship two years ago and the Super Bowl last year. When I hear lamenting about losing Randal Gay, that tells you something. Coaching might have something to do with it. It would be good if they could get Romeo back.

The real bummer here is that Branch didn't just play out his contract. I agree with Mike, Branch could have made the difference in home field advantage...remember how long it took for Brady and the receivers to get on the same page (which we learned in Game 1 2007 was code for the receivers weren't any good)? Also, just because the defense blew that AFC champioship doesn't mean that Branch couldn't have helped the Pats prevail in a shootout.

The Super Bowl loss has overshadowed that AFC championship loss but, man, that loss was painful.

Personally, I'm leaning towards ProvMan's comment. Getting Moss and Welker, while great, still hasn't produced a Superbowl, and in the Tom Brady era, that is the standard by which each years Patriots team is held to. The thing that gets me was the drop in the 4th quarter by (I believe it was) Caldwell (correct me if I am wrong). Sure, the D didn't close the game out, but that final TD would have been to tie the game, not go ahead, had Caldwell caught a pass on which he was uncovered. Now, if the Patriots go on and win 2 more Superbowl's then the conversation is a moot point. But of all the years, not getting to play a weak Chicago team in the SB was the greatest missed opportunity thus far.

Cheers,

Davo

Bring back BLINKY (aka Reche)

Hindsight is 50/50. What went down went down and there's nothing we can do to change it. It's not just one play or one player that makes it. Deion was a great receiver but we got a massive upgrade. We won it all without Lawyer Milloy, we could've won it all without Deion Branch. All we have to think about now is beating Seattle and then moving on to the next one.

With Branch they win another game that year and they win vs the Colts. One more 1st down and the game was over. Hell, if Caldwell hadn't dropped the ball then they tie instead of have to kick a FG. That gives them 4 SBs in 6 years and then they could be where they are now.....rebuilding. And, while we can whine about the defense not doing the job the week before they had fought a war with a very good San Diego team and were pretty much spent by the 4th quarter. They were not really supposed to win in 2006 anyway so getting as close as they did was amazing.