Part IV: What is Matt Cassel worth in a trade?

Here's the only thing that matters... you can bet that Belichick has put a value on Cassel and won't pull the trigger unless he gets it. The rest is just pointless speculation.

college 1st rd qbs have a low success rate. why wouldnt you go with a young qb that has 1 year proven and groomed for 4 by the best? seems like a no-brainer.

How about a six pack of Pabst Blue Ribbon and a ham sandwich for Cassel. I would do that deal.

Once the guy got used to playing he went 6-2 down the strech. One of those losses was the Jets which was a coin flip so he could also might have been 7-1.

Now thats as good as any playoff quaterback in the last half of the season. So the cast of characters argument from Reeves is lame. The guy played as well or better than all the playoff quaterbacks but he is not worth a number 1. Reeves is Dopey and so is anyone else who thinks that.

PS- I also blame the Jets loss on Belichek and McDaniels. They should have opened that game in the spread but waited to be losing by 20 before changing to it. No Monday morning QB here. I am on record for spreading the field against the Jets the week prior to that game being played.

#1--That's true, but remember that said value is nevertheless a moving target. Case in point: the Patriots DID try, at the last minute, to give Vinatieri more money to try to convince him to stay in NE. Similarly, if the best offer they can get is KC's #2, they might take that.

Personally, I think that the Patriots either have to trade Cassel relatively quickly (i.e., before May 15 or so), OR give him a long-term deal; they *can't* wait until July to decide.

trust me, someone will give up a 1st rounder for him, good quarterbacks are to hard to come by. the kid is only 25 and has four years under Belichick and Brady. im sure there are a few teams that view him as a gold mind.

Brave Pats Fan in Steeler Country: Certainly BB has "placed a value" on MattC trade, but it takes two to tango - and in this case at least (3) parties to agree. In the end, Matt's worth is still whatever the market dictates.

"The rest is just pointless speculation." We're all speculating - even (especially!) BB. That's what makes it interesting: like anticipating game days, we each have an idea, but NO ONE really knows what will happen.

I think we are overthinking this whole situation. Like Mike has stated a few times, all it takes is one team. I don't like the reasoning that he isn't worth a 1st rd pick because of the supporting cast. Why didn't anyone say that about Matt Shuab? We forget Shaub had 2 (repeat 2) starts that led to his trade and big contract. Cassel has at least 12 good starts.
I also trust in BB so much that he won't franchise Cassel without knowing he will get a good trade for him. Why would the PATS use 28+ million of the cap room on two QBs. When have the Pats ever done something that dumb? The only issue if teams realize they have to trade Cassel, his value goes down. Thats why the pats will continue to play it like the need Cassel.

Zak made a great point: 6-2 down the stretch. Three of those games in the pouring rain, blinding snow and howling wind. When you look at Cassel, what distinguishes him from other one-year wonders is not the streak he put together, but how he developed his talents as time went on. He's got the physical attributes, and his decision making really came one as the year progressed.

Yeah, he played on a great team. The flip side if that is, he played on a great team. TEAM. He was not the weakest link, far from it. Most teams would love to 11-5 with a starting QB, let alone a backup.

These are all solid points. I enjoyed reading the dialogue. What really interests me here is that I am hearing diverging opinions from people around the league. I had one scout tell me this week that he thinks the preseason performance will hurt Cassel's value, because it came when there was little to no game-planning and he felt that was a more accurate assessment of what Cassel would be with a team that had less explosive weapons than the Patriots did during the regular season. I was stunned. I figured the preseason would be a distant memory. I had another one mention quality wins over foes, pointing to Pittsburgh as a game that Cassel couldn't rise up. On the flip side, others have said he's worth the first-round investment, especially if a team was thinking about Stafford or Sanchez in the top 10 (a bigger financial risk). So I'm real interested to see how it unfolds, because I am not hearing one consistent opinion when I talk to different people in different roles around the league.
--Mike

I use to respect Dan Reeves' opinion......Not anymore.
A first round draft choice, IN the draft, can only produce an un-proven player who has NEVER played in the NFL. DAHHHH??? Cassell played a season in the NFL and played pretty darn well. Hello Mr Reeves, What are you thinking? I guess that's why he's out of a job.

How about Cassel comes to MN for T-Jack and a 3rd round pick. That could be interesting.

Lets look at the last few years of Quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds. Would you rather have Cassel or...

2008 - Matt Ryan (3) Joe Flacco (18) Brian Bromnh (56)
2007 - Jamarcus Russel (1) Brady Quinn (22) Kevin Kolb (36)
2006 - Vince Young (3) Matt Leinart (10) Jay Cutler (11)
2005 - Alex Smith (1) Aaron Rodgers (24) Jason Campbell (25)

Arguably, 2-4 are better than Cassel. Still, if you're a GM, do you like those odds with Stafford and Sanchez?

Dan Reeves?....He got run out of town by John Elway, than was worse than Eric Mangini and Rod Rust combined with the Giants & Falcons...so cares what he has to say.....Every QB that played for him, ended up hating him!....Jim Miller?, Come on....Typical "dont make any mistakes and let the D win the game" QB.....BTW, he's awful on Siruis Radio...love the NFL Channel, but change the channel when he gets on....It's fair to assume Matt Cassel is worth a 1st rounder (a lot depends on what type of long term contract the other team can sign him too).. The shortage of legit QB's might even up that value......

Furthering my analysis, I believe you can safely argue that Matt Cassel is a solid 5-15 range 1st round value based upon his proven tangibles:

Accuracy
Decision Making and Game Management
Grooming
Ability to scramble
Age
Potential and his quick progression in his first year

San Frans #10 pick is a good estimate of his value. The Vikings #22 pick as well as their 3rd rounder would also be equitable trade value.

Make that a Pabst 40 oz. and half a sandwich. Hey Pabst did win a gold medal for taste in 1898.

Any scout that judges a first year starter by what they did in the preseason instead of what they did in the regular season is nuts! I'm curious, Mike, was this scout on a winning team?

An important thing to factor in to Matt Cassell besides the 4 year education as a QB with BB and Brady, is that it was his first season to play full time since high school -7/8 years before. He improved dramatically during the season. He could continue to improve as he plays, he potentially has a lot of upside. Plus his body is not battered, so he has fresh legs and he is relatively young. That means a team is looking at a ten year period with Matt as their franchise QB. That is worth a first rounder. The Pats will definitely get a bottom half first rounder or the equivalent in picks as two high seconds. It will be harder to get a top 12 pick because there he competes with the top players at any position.

and de

DOES ANYONE REMEMBER SCOTT MITCHELL!!!!!!!!!!! TEAMS SHOULD BE WORRIED!!!!!!!!

FA's to look at closely to sign- ss Jermaine Philips 6:2-220lbs, cb Tampa ,Jabari Greer, 5:10, 185lbs, Buffalo. Patriots also need a taller fs ( than 5"11 merriweather)- either from FA or draft. Draft , round 1- olb Brian Cushing 6:4 245lbs, USC, or Malcolm Jenkins , cb, 6:1 200lbs, OSU, rounds 2 ( 2 picks),3 4,and 5- free saftys( minimum- 6:1), cornerbacks( minimum- 5:10- speed and good hands a must).

What many of you are not considering is that, although a first round pick in the draft might be less likely to succeed, he's also less of a financial investment than what Cassel will be. [The exception would be a top 10 pick, but nobody's talking about the Pats being able to land one of those anyway...]

To put it in perspective, Joe Flacco signed a 5yr-$30M contract with only $8.75M in guarantees. But Derek Anderson got twice as much in guarantees as a free agent. Cassel is probably looking at a contract that has AT LEAST $15M in guarantees (since he's already guaranteed the franchise salary). It'll probably be more similar to Schaub's 6yr-$48M contract (which is in '07 cap dollars). Addressing the QB position in the draft will most likely be the cheaper option, so it's understandable why teams may not be willing to give up a first round pick for Cassel.

The scout who says he bases his opionion on the pre season performance must come from a 1 st class run organization like the Lions , Rams ,or Chiefs. Come on . BB shows jack in the pre season and only uses it to evaluate the scrubs performances. Nobody sees what Matt has done on scout teams , practices , class room etc. This guy must be from one of the dog teams that is trying to drive his value down. If I would guess he is from the Lions, perennial losers. Time will tell on what Matt is worth..

Dan Reeves nailed it, in fact, IMO, Cassel will be a one year wonder. That being said, I would hope that the Pats get all that t5hey can for him. It will be like Christmas for them..

Just like Danny Ainge now, Pats must posture as if they don't NEED to make a deal The likely trade partners will similarly feign greater interest in draft prospects.
I thought it VERY telling that Cassell publicly stated that "he was OK returning as Brady back-up": evidence that he and Pats are cooperating.

And Bob, I'll take the Pabst 40/half sandwich if you throw in a couple of Slim Jims.

Mike Allen: OK, you pushed me off my impartial fence with: "one year wonder"?
No, Matt C's will be much more than that, especially if given anything close to a decent team. With all his positive tangibles others here have provided, his VERY important for the QB "intangibles" are equally high: leadership, performance under pressure, marketability, etc.

And yes, I'm plenty old enough to remember Scott Mitchell. Who, while never living up to rather high expectations, did put up some gaudy numbers for the Lionz in 1995. The next Brady or Manning? Nah, but the next best thing. And that is VALUABLE - just a question of degree.

That's why the Pats are taking such a risk: they've got the right product for the current market.

What is tricky about Cassel is any team is going to want assurances from Cassel they can get a long term deal done before they agree to a trade. Otherwise they are facing $14.6 M followed by free agency.

If I were in Cassel's shoes, I would not want a deal from Detroit because right now he can simply sit on the bench and collect a huge paycheck that is now guaranteed... and then he'll be a free agent all over again.

So what team is willing to offer a good enough deal to BOTH Cassel and the Patriots. For Cassel that means guaranteed money and a signing bonus that is greater than $14.6 million PLUS a meaningful opportunity to play. For the Patriots, I think their negotiating position is not that strong and they would jump at any second round draft pick.

What is attractive to other clubs is that they could avoid protracted negotiations a la Jamarcus Russell on a first round QB and instead pick up a great offensive line or other player to give Cassel some options. Imagine if Detroit traded for Cassel, used their #1 pick on offensive line, and then you'd have Cassel throwing to their star receiver [forgot his name right now].

Of course they're cooperating, the Patriots don't want to be stuck with a $14 million backup and Cassell doesn't want to be a backup, nor does he want to be tossed at a bad team where he doesn't fit in or have a chance at success. With him accepting the franchise tender, the Patriots have to get Cassell agree to a contract with the new team before the trade goes through.
What I don't understand is how people are even comparing a couple of college prospects to him when he has a good season of NFL experience under his belt.
Put it this way: he was better than Ben Roethlisberger this year. (Oh yes, I went THERE)

Here is my simple logic: If Matt Cassel were a 2008 first round pick, how successful would you consider his season? I would say, very successful. Above expectations even for a first round pick. Better than Flacco, and about on par with Offensive ROY Ryan, IMO. So yes, it should be a first round pick.

Let's not forget who the Patriots played. The worst teams in football!
Did Matt C. do well against a top defense? NO! Steelers, Chargers and Colts.
Matt C and the Pats feasted on defenses that ranked 15th and higher.
As for a trade, wouldn't it make sense for other teams to let the Pats carry the 14million on their cap through most of the free agent period. Which would inhibit the signing of a top defensive FA

okay so the question to Mike Allen is:

If Cassel is a one year wonder than the rookies who have never played in the NFL must be better options in round one? I don't think so, but, thats just my opinion.

Cassel has been watching film with the Best brain in Football and the best QB in football for the last 4 years. He finally got an opportunity to get to implement what he saw on the field. He was very cautious in the first half of the year. Teams were throwing things at him live that he had yet to experience. Second half of the year other than the Steeler debacle no one else played better. So I don't think one year wonder really applies in this case.

hey George -

I think you can dismiss the Colts and Chargers as they were early in the season. The Steelers - I will give you that. IT was a poor game for him but not him alone.

BUT: lets not shortchange the kid either-
Cassel really feasted on the Super Bowl appearing NFC Champs Arizona Cardinals pretty well don't you think. He also beat the AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins at their place.

"A first round pick is a lot to give up for Cassel"...says the unemployed coach (Reeves) who has choked in just about every big game his teams played in.

My random, uneducated prediction? Lions trade their secon 1st rounder for Cassell and trade down from #3 overall.

George, if you subtract the Patriots' 11-5 record from the combined records of Patriots opponents, you will see that their opponents were 118 - 122 against other teams. So their schedule was very close to .500. It may have been an easy schedule on paper before the season started, but now we know more, so lets stop basing everything on irrelevant information.

As admirably as Cassel played in an emergency situation, something to keep in mind...

Offense with Brady: 533 points
Offense with Cassel: 403 points

Granted, comparing anyone to Brady isn't going to be a very favorable comparison, but 130 points is a BIG difference. It's roughly equivalent to the difference between this year's Cardinals offense and this year's Chiefs offense.

Other teams are well aware of the offensive weapons Cassel had to work with.

Dan Reeves has admitted publicly that he uses media access to continue to root for/and root against certain teams. Specifically, he said that he bashes Notre Dame seniors coming out for the draft because he wants them to go as low as possible in order that Notre Dame will struggle against the SEC in the recruiting wars.
Who knows what his motivations might be for saying a first round is high compensation for Matt Cassel. Maybe he begrudges a high defensive pick going to the Pats. I think an impartial scout has to say Cassel is the real deal, period.

Tom
Irrelevant information?
The NFC West had 1 team finish above 500
The AFC West 500 was the best record.
The highest rated defense the Patriots beat was Miami at 15th
What skews your facts is the AFC East all were 500 or above
Which in reality isn't that impressive because they all played the NFC and AFC
West
We'll see how Matt C does when he isn't throwing to Welker and Moss and faces tougher defenses

Cassel earned his wings. He never made problems on the team. He was, and always been a team player. He stayed back gave 100% and waited his turn. His turn came just like Brady"s did when Drew went down. Like I said before! It's a great team coached by great coaches. And a great OWNER! This is a players team. Always was and always will be! What ever Matt does! good luck and thanks for the great time you gave us in New England.

George, you stated they played against "the worst teams in football." Since the teams were actually about .500 and several made the playoffs I assumed you were referring to preseason stats about difficulty of schedule. I see what you are saying now and agree it isn't irrelevant. Especially because the last two Superbowl Champs held the Pats to two scores (Cassel AND Brady). But fact is they played a .500 schedule and scored the most points in the conference this year. Last year they set the scoring record. This leads me to believe the QB may not be the biggest problem when struggling against great defenses. You get into field position and another debate completely but my feeling is that the Pats defense should capitalize on the weaker offenses of those teams.

Cassel can't throw the ball more than 15 yards accurately. Most of the passing yards were after the catch. That's not franchise QB. That's a game manager.