Projecting a system fit

All of us here in Bostonland knew that Tully Banta-Cain was not not worth the money the 49ers paid him.

Mike, this is great stuff! As a Pats fan, I'm so glad you have this blog. It sure beats the heck out of hearing about Steroids in the MLB again for the 5th February in a row.

All that you wrote is true Mike, but you neglected to mention that talent evaluators pay ex-Patriots huge sums of money anyway, as if this great system doesn't exist. In other words, it's never stopped them before, so why start with Cassel?

Mike, you can't compare Cassel to Banta Cain or anyof the others you mentioned, except Asante Samuel. Cassel performed at an All-Pro level. The others you mentioned were average at best and some were just subs. As with any QB, time to throw is the most important thing. Cassel has shown that he has the intelligence. With his ability to scamble, I am fairly certain that with continued playing time, Cassel is going to continue to improve, no matter what system he plays in.

I agree with everything you wrote Mike, including your notion that QB and LB are vastly different positions. I think a LB is more affected by the system in which he plays (3-4 vs 4-3, gap control vs. attacking, etc.). If you take a smart, instinctual QB who has the ability to read defenses, has a good arm, can deliver the ball accurately under pressure, and has the will to win, that guy will excel in any system.

I think Cassel has several of those traits, and will be an above average starting QB regardless of where he lands. Detroit seems ideally suited for him, especially if they take one of the massive OTs at #1 this year. Calvin Johnson is a true #1 WR, and their rookie RB, Smith was solid last year. Add Cassel to that mix, and they've got a shot to improve on their 2008 win total. ;)

God bless Tully . He was never more that an adequate backup and good special team player . A product of BB's system. He has his money .The 49 ers are are a poorly run team and Tully was not the only mistake. Alex Smith , the missue use of Gore and the" we cant win with him" VD and of course coming to a football team in Denver Mikey Nolan, Josh Mc D first hire. Lets hope that defensive genius can work the same magic he did with San Fran with the Broncos which is to put them in the toilet.

Ditto Ritchie. Tully was subbing for an injured Rosie Colvin. He was never starter material. But he was effective playing behind Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, and Green.

The situation with Matt Cassel is totally different. Through the course of last season Cassel showed that he could learn, that he was athletic, that he could read defenses (unlike Joe Flacco), and that he could take a hit and keep playing.

No team will be successful without a supporting cast, and Cassel will be successful when he's surrounded by a good team. -- That's not a "system." That's NFL gospel.

Mike,

I don't see the point and anyone who watched Bantha-Cain knew he wasn't a full time player. Different positions entirely, especially since Tully was not a starter and the 49'ers projected, whiile Casses did start and proved he can do it. Matt requires no projection, as Parcells said you are what you are.
While good coaching is a factor, what team isn't going to sign a player based on that? Wouldn't that be admitting defeat and acknowliding we're not as good as the Pats?

Cassell started and excelled much more like Samuels than the other guys mentioned.. Plus playing in the Patriots system at game speed had to come like all new to him as you could see in the pre-season and early season when he struggled. He successfully adjusted to it. That speaks well to his ability to transition to a new system. There is no remedy for the part of it that is due to poorer coaching, which is why Cassell should choose his team wisely for the sake of his career. I think KC is the top fit. Pioli speaks extremely highly of Matt Cassell as a player and person; new coach Todd Haley as the Cards OC got Warners career back on track and so should be able to work well with Cassell.

Teams draft and develop players based on systems for certain but also consider a few other things. Besides coaching consider the supporting cast, the atmosphere of the locker room and the competition for playing time on the team. Look at players that the Pats have drafted and whiffed on as well as the guys that have come out of FA or lower draft spots to make big contributions. The bottom line is that personnel decisions are always a crap shoot and it is always better to draft and develop while not overpaying for talent.

Frankly, I don't see Cassell being worth more than a package of a 2 & 3. He still hasn't developed enough skill to make throws down the field or deal with a blitz heavy defense.

You can also put Deion Branch and David Givens in that list, granted Branch Left VIA Trade , but he forced his way out looking for the larger contract. With Givens he never lived up to any expectation in Tennessee

"when assessing players from the Patriots because of the excellence of the coaching staff and the strong system in place".

Great point Mike, I never thought of it that way

When new coaches take over, and bring in a new system, it usually takes a minimum of 1-2 years for the players to “get it.” So assuming it goes both ways, Cassel might not have the same first year success as “08 with a new team, but any team taking a chance on him has to be thinking long term and be patient (although for the money he will sign for he will have to start.) When other teams consider Cassel’s value, they know he wasn’t in the Pats system for 1 year, this was his 3rd. Being an understudy to a future Hall of Famer and his 3 years with the offense made “08 possible, but he didn’t exactly jump out of nowhere. I can’t help but think that the Patriots not making the playoffs may have hurt them more than they think. Had Cassel had a strong performance and maybe even a win, his value would be higher.

Nick, the difference with Givens is that he suffered what turned out to be a career-ending injury. There's really no telling if he would have been able to contribute had he not been battling that injury practically his entire stay in Tennessee.

It'll be very interesting to see if Pioli goes after Cassel. If he doesn't even make the attempt, I think it will tell us a lot about Cassel...

oops. drafted in 05, 4 years in system. yeah I can count.

rob, how do you come to the conclusion that Cassel is worth no more than a 2 & 3? Matt Schaub was worth two #2's. I would think that Cassel, having played more than Schaub did, would be worth more than that.

Remember it works the other way as well- witness Marty Biesel and to some extent Roosevelt Colvin.

Hey Mike, Love your work but I have to say there is no link between Cassel and Banta Cain.Banta Cain never played like a starter.Never.I was shocked(along with a lot of others) at the time ,with what the 49ers paid him.Cassel played like a starter,and nobody will be suprised when he is traded and gets the big bucks.

Len:

How long did it take Brady to really emerge? He needed a few more years as a starter to really become a top 5 QB in the game. If Cassell goes somewhere else he's not going to have the same quality of guys around him. Cassell certainly has more room to progress but he's not likely going to become an elite QB but rather, someone who can manage a game and not lose them for you. That is certainly valuable but not really worth a team's #1 pick early in round 1. Now, consider that there is a great deal of difference between picks 1-8 and 25-32. I would think that a second and third round pick from the Lions or Chiefs would be more reasonable in terms of valuue. You are talking the 33rd and 64th players taken for Cassell. If the Pats scored that deal they would 5 guys to pick in the top 64 players. That's how you build a team that competes for years to come.

rob:

Bring Brady up is... well, irrelevant. Players will progress at different rates. I agree that he won't have the same quality of players around him if he leaves, but that's usually the case with teams that are rebuilding, anyway. I don't think it's fair to simply call him a "game manager" when we all watched him progress from that this season. He started off as one, no doubt, but by the second Jets game he was leading a game-tying drive with 1:04 left and no timeouts in the 4th quarter. Game managers don't do that.

rob (continued):

I understand what you're saying as far as the picks go. I don't think Cassel is worth an early 1st rounder, but a later one? There's no doubt in my mind he's worth that, and more. Once again, Schaub netted two 2nd rounders, and Cassel has a better body of work than Schaub did at that time. Couple that with the fact this is a very weak draft class for QB's. If two teams start going after Cassel, we're talking about a bidding war, where a 2 and 3 won't cut it. I think the Lions would be foolish not to trade their 20th overall for Cassel and get an OT with their #1.

People are comparing Cassel to elite NFL QBs. Get real people, what are the alternatives for Det,KC,Tampa,Minn, etc?. Cassel is obviously more experienced than any college QB (especially with NFL speed and defenses) and has more upside than all except maybe 1. i would take him over all of the past two year's drafted QBs except maybe Ryan (aka Matty Ice). The only problem with Cassel is the contract he will require and the compensation. As a GM that would turn me off.

I think the Eagles and the Patriots both knew that Asante Samuel was a top corner who would fit in most systems. I don't think anyone in the NFL would debate that. However, I think it is more of a difference of opinion on the importance of the position. I think if Asante Samuel was a top-notch special teamer, the Pats would have put up the money. However, it is my feeling that they believe teams are built from the front to the back and inside out. Any Pats CB had better be a tremendous special teamer to get the kind of dough Samuel wanted...and got.

dont forget david givens!!!!