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After further review...
ANALYSIS
Recapping some thoughts on the past two weeks, in which the Patriots garnered their fair share of headlines:
- Vic Carucci of NFL.com set off some fireworks with a report that the Patriots were likely to acquire Carolina Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers for a second-round draft choice (34th overall). The feeling here is that the Patriots would covet the chance to add a player of Peppers’s caliber, even for one season, but multiple things would have to happen to pull it off (e.g. agreeing on trade compensation, fitting Peppers under the salary cap). In the end, it’s hard to imagine this happening unless Peppers is willing to take a significant pay cut and the Panthers would indeed trade him for only a second-round choice.
- The Patriots hosted cornerback Leigh Bodden on the first day of free agency and offered him a multi-year deal. But Bodden decided to further test the market and when no other club stepped up, he settled on a prove-it type of one-year deal in New England with a base salary of $2.25 million. Landing Bodden and Shawn Springs should help the team’s secondary, which struggled for stretches of last season. On the flip side, the Patriots wouldn’t be making these type of moves for the second year in a row had Asante Samuel signed an extension back in 2006 or 2007. While the Patriots generally are able to limit personnel mistakes compared to most NFL clubs, they're still working to recover from not getting Samuel locked up long-term.
- The loss of long snapper Lonie Paxton, and the subsequent signing of Nathan Hodel to fill the void, is an example of the Patriots setting a financial limit at a specific position. It is similar to when Adam Vinatieri departed in free agency in 2006, with the Colts putting him at the top of the kicking pay scale. At the time, the Patriots were reluctant to have too many players as the highest paid at their position because it would hurt their ability to have a strong middle class on the roster. This year, the Patriots wanted to keep Paxton, but when the numbers came back to them – Denver offering a five-year, $5.38 million pact with a $1 million signing bonus – they focused on more cost-effective replacements. Hodel signed a one-year deal with a base salary of $745,000, so the Patriots can have two players on their roster this season for what Paxton would have cost them. That looks good on paper, assuming Hodel proves to be as reliable as Paxton had become, which is no given.
- With longtime special teams captain Larry Izzo signing a one-year deal with the Jets for a base salary of $845,000, it appears as if the Patriots had ruled him out of their plans. That isn’t the type of offer that is difficult to match.
- In testing free agency, defensive lineman Mike Wright was likely looking for an opportunity to start along with the type of salary that comes with it, similar to Kenyon Coleman going from Dallas to the Jets prior to the 2007 season. It didn’t happen for Wright, but he was smart to keep dialogue open with the Patriots. His four-year pact to return to New England is reflective of a veteran backup role, but includes incentives to increase the value should he become a starter. Wright is a valuable player on a 45-man game-day roster, because he backs up two spots (nose, end) and also contributes on special teams.
- The signing of veteran receiver Joey Galloway to a one-year deal appears to be a low-risk, high-reward type of move. The Patriots have an opening for a No. 3 receiver with Jabar Gaffney landing in Denver, and the 37-year-old Galloway is one of the candidates. How well he runs will be a storyline to watch in training camp.
- The re-signings of S/LB Tank Williams, OL Wesley Britt, S Ray Ventrone and C/G Al Johnson add to the team’s depth, increase the competition across the roster, and in Williams’s case, add flexibility for specific personnel packages (3-4 alignment with Williams as a linebacker).
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Mike, what about receiver Greg Lewis from the Eagles? Why did the Pats sign him?
Welcome back Mike :)
1st Please see what you can find out on Peppers.
2nd Maybe Bodden can get a deal done before the end of his contract. ONeil for one year will make anyone look good. Maybe one of the 2nd year guys can bump him? Do you think Springs will play CB or Saftey?
3rd Lonnie gone STINKS! we can't have another player because of the $$ but maybe we can keep or pay a higer grade of player @ other positions. Lets hope the one year deal don't bit us.
4th Izzo = old +riods scandle and BB don't need another scandle.
5th Do you think Wright could be any insurance for the Wilfork contract?
6th Surely you to Mike don't think the Pats cut Joey a deal before he ran?
COM'ON'MAN
7th I sure hope we get to see the WILLIAMS PACKAGE you told us about last year in camp.
Great to have you back
Welcome back Mike. You are by far the best at what you do, and while I know you deserve the time off, my day is better with you on the job. Thanks.
That's one...
Hi Hello. On Lewis, they figure to keep five-six receivers on the roster -- and the top three are Moss, Welker, and Aiken. Aiken isn't a clear-cut No. 3, so they bring in Galloway and Lewis to compete there, with the idea that maybe a youngster steps in there as well. Lewis also has some Kelley Washington-like special teams value, and the Patriots probably looked at the draft value of a fifth-round selection and felt he was better than what they might get there. Maybe the most key factor here is that Lewis is signed for three more years at reasonable prices. If he wasn't signed for that duration, the Patriots probably don't make the deal. Rog -- I'd put Springs at cornerback first. Looks to me like Meriweather/Sanders is the safety combination. Also, don't see Wright as insurance for Wilfork necessarily. Wilfork is a top-shelf NT. Wright is a solid backup who can get you by for a game or two, but if you're relying on him for 16 games as a starter, that probably won't work.
--Mike
5:00 am posting - atta boy Mikey, good to have you back buddy!
Matt Gutierrez to Denver seems an obvious move for both Pats and Denver. Cutler' gets them a 1st round pick; Gutierrez costs them 4th Round? pick. He knows the system, and we all thought Gutierrez was going to beat out Cassel coming out of camp last year. Seems like a win/win for both sides? Thoughts?
Mike, please pull out your calculator and give us a rundown of the Pats remaining cap space in light of the cost of the upcoming draft picks and their contracts. What will be left for Wilfork, Mankins, etc?
Hope you had a great vacation Mike!
Sam--come on--Guttierez didn't even make the team last year until a coupleof weeks after Brady was injured. If they bring in Ramsey, expect Guttierez and Ramsey to be battling for the #3 spot. No way he commands a 4th.
Mike..
You didn't comment on the Fred Taylor or Chris Baker FA signings. I'm curious to hear your opinion on the potential quality and depth at RB and TE. And whether or not you think the Patriots will continue to upgrade these two positions via the draft as some had speculated prior to the start of FA..
I don't blame the Pats for not locking up Asante as much as you do, Mike.
Obviously, Philly offered silly money, so the Pats' best opportunity was after the 2006 season. Apparently, Asante thought the Pats had lowballed him, but my bet is the Pats viewed the entire package (tackling, coverage and interceptions) and weren't going to overpay for the 10 interceptions that season. He had a knack being around the ball, but he took a lot of chances and his tackling wasn't great.
Was he better than what they have? Yes, but I don't believe he was worth the dollars he commanded.
Samuel didnt look too good for Philly in the playoffs v. Arizona, and of course he dropped the biggest potential pick of his life in the SB.
However...Pats still miss him.
I'm not sure Bodden/Springs is the answer at corner: but who is? Maybe Wilhite/Wheatley will emerge.
Mike, isn't the "Patriots setting a financial limit at a specific position" the reason why Samuel is gone? He had a good season for Philly, but hardly 10 million good. Granted, the CB position didn't work out at all last year, but if you are going to have a bad year in the secondary, make it the one where your franchise QB goes down, and you don't make the playoffs!
Cheers,
Davo
p.s., welcome back!
Mike, Your analysis of the past two weeks is really great to get a handle on the current Patriots situation. I just have ONE suggestion.
The next time you take a vacation, let us know when you know the exact dates, so we can take our vacation at the same time.
A couple of thoughts ... Rog, on Galloway, what I mean is that it is different to gauge how a 37-year-old player runs when he is getting jammed at the line, or is practicing for the fourth day in a row. I think that will be a good test to gauge what Galloway has in the tank. Sam, I don't see Gutierrez having that value in a trade. Steve, I like the Taylor and Baker signings. I think they were two of the best options for the needs that the Patriots had. I don't think that will stop the team from drafting at that position, though. On Samuel, my thoughts are that while he might not have been worth what he eventually received from Philly, they could have locked him up for much less before it got to that point (e.g. Ty Warren extension). I think that is the hard part of the personnel game -- knowing when to be proactive and reactive,
--Mike
This Canadian has been a Pat's fan since the mid 70s and until now could not find a rational, calm analysis of the Patriots. Thanks! I really appreciate your articles and am glad you are back.
Cheers,
TLD
Mike--
Great analysis, as always. There's only one thing that I'm not convinced about re: Samuel. Clearly he didn't have the performance to merit a blockbuster deal before the 2006 season started, and it's kind of hard to argue for paying large amounts of money for just one good season at cornerback, especially when the supply of CBs is relatively large.
So, here's my question--even if the Patriots had reached a long-term deal with Samuel before the 2006 season, isn't there a good chance he would have held out after the 2006 season or the 2007 season for more money, and basically leave the Pats in the same boat they're in now?
Mike,
A cowboy rides into town on Friday. He stays three days and then rides out, again on Friday.
How can this be?
STI...I suppose that's possible with Samuel, but had they signed him in 2006 to an extension, Samuel would have received around a $10m signing bonus. That figure probably would have held him over for at least 2006-2007-2008 and possibly 2009 before he had a case to go back to the negotiating table. I'd say it's the same thing with Ty Warren now. He signed the big extension, but the market for players at his position has since grown. He isn't looking to go back to the negotiating table. Dan Koppen, from a few years back, is another example.
--Mike
I don't fault the Patriots for not locking up "Get Paid" A$ante $amuel long-term. He wanted too much money, too soon. As others have pointed out, $amuel had one big season before he started demanding the big money, and Belichick clearly doesn't value CBs that highly, preferring to piece together a secondary year-to-year with lower-priced players. That's his philosophy and you can't argue with the results.
The Patriots kept $amuel as long as they could have, got the most out of him and then let him go, as they should have done.
I like the Patriots much better without $amuel and with the $$$ to make other moves.
Mike,
Love your stuff. I'm a Reiss junkie. I have a Peppers question. Do you think it likely that the trade rumors for Peppers being swapped for a second rounder are complete? I suspect , ala the KC trade, that the pick is only a piece of the deal. I imagine moving Seymour along with the pick. Does this make sense for the Pats? I think it does, but I also thought the Pats should draft Maroney.
Machias Mark,
If the Pats were to "throw in" Richard Seymour, I'd personally drive down to Foxboro and slap Belichick. The guy doesn't put up eye-popping stats, and he's had some injuries...but he still commands AT LEAST two blockers practically EVERY play. Julius Peppers is NOT a 3-4 DE...and has already said that he wants to play OLB...so who, then, do you have at DE? Mike Wright? Jarvis Green? I'll take Richard Seymour any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Mike,
Im on and off about the whole Peppers situation. Yes its true he has never played in a 34 defense, but he played forward in basketball and is a complete freak of nature. Belichick hasnt had a weapon like that since LT in the 80's. Yes he is asking alot in terms of $$ but the guy totally deserves it. What do you think of Patriots getting rid of Seymour took make that happen? Seymour has battled injuries and hasnt been so promising of late. I myself am totally comfortable with Jarvis Green replacing him on the edge. I know this may not be a classy move on the Pats part, but I along with all of Patriot nation want a SB ring THIS year. The Mike Vrabel trade proved that the Pats are willing to do this to get new and young talent. Im also not liking Tedy next to Mayo at the start of '09, possibly Laurinaitis or Maualgu at #23? What are your thoughts?
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