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Casserly, Billick talk Patriots

Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff April 20, 2009 01:50 PM

Charley Casserly and Brian Billick, both of whom are contributing to draft coverage for NFL Network, are holding a conference call today.

Here is their opinion when asked about the Patriots’ needs and what they might do in the draft:

“The areas to me that they can get better are outside linebacker, inside linebacker, corner and offensive tackle," Casserly said.

“The corner from Connecticut, [Darius] Butler, is probably in that range. Then at outside linebacker, you have guys like Clay Matthews, who a lot of people like in the last part of that first round. Larry English, but I don’t know if he fits their mold as far as the size factor goes. Those are some names, value-wise, who would fit into that part of the first round.”

Billick looked through a wider lens when assessing the Patriots’ possible approach.

“What intrigues me the most about New England this year, and it tends to be something we see over and over again, you’re looking at all these picks in the first three rounds that they have, and their history to not hesitate, and some of these they will toss off to bank for next year as well, because they realize there are only so many guys they are going to take that can make their football team,” Billick said.

“To sit there with the six picks that they have in the first three rounds, they have a lot of latitude to however their board lays out. They can go up and get a guy if they covet a guy, which hasn’t necessarily been their m.o. – and I’m not sure this is a draft that you would isolate that. I think they’re in great shape to fit the needs that Charley outlined.”

One other aspect of the call that stood out was Casserly listing the percentages of landing a starting player in the draft.

Casserly cited on a 10-year study – which evaluated drafts after four years had passed – and listed the following numbers of success:

  • First round – 75 percent
  • Second round – 50 percent
  • Third round – 30 percent
  • Fourth round – 25 percent
  • Fifth round – 20 percent
  • Sixth round – 9 percent
  • Seventh round – 9 percent

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    15 comments so far...
    1. It'd be interesting to see how Bill Bs draft classes have compared to those percentages.

      Posted by Chris April 20, 09 02:37 PM
    1. Is 4 years out enough time? Typically 1st rounders are guys you want to step in and start right away...guys drafted in later rounds are typically for depth and may be behind someone. Mike is 4 years a good barometer?

      Posted by Christian April 20, 09 02:55 PM
    1. Casserly got a lot of unwarranted criticism for taking Mario Williams. I'm glad to see he's now being rightly acknowledged for taking a huge risk drafting williams over the super popular pick, reggie bush. Demeco Ryans was also a huge grab.

      Why Casserly doesn't have a job, I don't know.

      Posted by sean gildea April 20, 09 02:58 PM
    1. I agree, Sean. Reggie Bush is good athlete but he's NOT a RB. He's a higher profile Devin Hester. I mean, look at how he runs! He'd rather try run outside the tackles. And what makes me laugh, is that they compared him to all these HOF runningbacks like Gale Sayers and Walter Payton. Laughable!

      Posted by patsfan401 April 20, 09 03:42 PM
    1. So Mike, there are people who utilize a 4-year span :)
      Sorry, I just couldn't resist the temptation of saying it.

      I'm joining Chris to ask you to compare these percentages with Patriots' drafts under Belichik. It would be really interesting.

      Posted by Misha April 20, 09 03:46 PM
    1. I don't like Charley Casserly. It really starts with the spelling of his name. Girls named Charley spell it that way. Real men go by "Charlie", or "Chuck." He also dyes his hair way too dark and has some rather bizarre mouth movements when speaking. He reminds me of that newsguy from the Muppets. Charley might well know what he is talking about, but in light of the worldwide phenomena that is Susan Boyle, the disheveled diva form Britain's Got Talent, I wish Charley would just accept his natural flaws and let the beauty of his football knowledge ring loud and clear.

      Posted by LJSandwich April 20, 09 03:46 PM
    1. @Christian “Is 4 years out enough time?...4 years a good barometer?”

      George Blanda, Warren Moon, Morten Andersen, Steve Young, Ray Brown, Vinny Testaverde, Steve Bono, Brad Johnson, Jeff Garcia, Brett Farve, Kurt Warner, Kerry Collins,….Matt Cassel….Matt Leinhart…Vince Young….

      What do all of these players have in common? What do some of them have in common? Which, if any, don’t belong? Hhmm…..

      Posted by VerDisqo April 20, 09 04:13 PM
    1. Wow, let's all rag on someone for his looks...............I don't give a damn what he looks like or how vain he is or how he spells his name, Casserly has good inside information. A name is a name, it might not be his choice how it was spelled, that's the problem with having parents that want their kid to have a unique name. I'd take Hester over Bush as a returner.

      Posted by Maxx April 20, 09 04:16 PM
    1. VerDisqo, I know, I know! Only one of them was a great player! What did I win? I'll give you a hint: He appears in the first line and it damn sure ain't Blanda. I don't care if he's in the HOF, the man threw more picks than TDs by a wide margin. He led the league in INTs in four straight seasons while only leading in TDs once. Now, granted, back in that era, 36 TDs was extremely impressive...but 42 INTs in one season? 42?!?!?! That's WAY beyond Favre, and Favre wasn't a great QB.

      Also, it ain't Warren Moon or Vinny T.

      Posted by Rob in Central MA April 20, 09 04:46 PM
    1. He thinks English doesn't have the size factor... Matthews is even smaller. I'm not putting much clout in what Billick says.

      Posted by Andy M April 20, 09 05:05 PM
    1. I would much rather get English than Matthews based on their ability to get to the quarterback.

      Posted by Matt from RI April 20, 09 06:06 PM
    1. English would be a great pick at #23. I also like Conner Barwin as an ultra-versatile Patriots-type player at #34. Another thought is to trade #23 and a third to move up and take Tyson Jackson (if still available). I think the Pats should consider finding a replacement for Seymour.

      Posted by Tony April 20, 09 07:01 PM
    1. Draft Defense every. single. pick.

      Posted by Classless April 20, 09 10:39 PM
    1. Mike, mike, mike... you should know better than to ask Bellacheck any questions and expect a straight answer.

      Posted by jymt April 21, 09 09:09 AM
    1. If I could ask Belichick a question it would be " How do you feel about teh current depth at corner back right now? Do yiu feel we are ok at that spot with the veterans and youngsters you have or might you think abotu drafting a corner back in this years draft?" I would ask because i think we have shifted from CB needy to way more of a pass rush needy team.

      Posted by Kenny April 21, 09 11:46 AM
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