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Patriots schedule analysis

Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff April 14, 2009 07:20 PM

ANALYSIS

Five areas of note after an initial look at the Patriots' 2009 schedule:

  • 1) After the bye stands out. Given the importance of division games, and factoring in the added intensity of prime-time games, the decisive part of the schedule comes after the bye in Week 8 – a home game against Miami, at Indianapolis (Sunday night), home against the Jets, then back-to-back prime-time games on the road – New Orleans and Miami.

  • 2) Elements could be in play. Another year, another cold-weather, elements-type-of-game in Buffalo (Dec. 20).

  • 3) Chance for an early jump in the division. The first two games are in the AFC East, which figures to be a theme as the Patriots look to reclaim the division. After those games, the Patriots go another six weeks without a division game (including the bye week).

  • 4) Home-field edge could be key. With three of the season’s first four games at home – and four of the first six at Gillette – the Patriots are in position for a fast start. Fans are sure to appreciate the standard 1 p.m. kickoffs for three of the first five home games. On the flip side, four of the final six games are on the road.

  • 5) Short weeks against AFC East foes. When a team plays on Monday night, it creates a situation where the club has a shorter, more compact week when it prepares for its next opponent. Both of the Patriots' short weeks are against AFC East opponents -- Week 2 against the Jets and Week 13 against the Dolphins.

    I am in the process of going through the entire NFL schedule to take a closer look at bye weeks for opponents, as it is considered a disadvantage to face a team after they have a bye.

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    10 comments so far...
    1. Mike

      I noticed the Pats only have one set of back-to-back home games (obviously same with away). Is it me, or don't usually teams have 2 or 3 sets of back-to-backs. Not sure if it's relevant or not, but it stood out to me.

      Posted by Tom B April 14, 09 07:39 PM
    1. Mike,
      The NFL is saying the Pats have the 3rd toughest strength of schedule.
      Also, they have a tough 4 game stretch in the beginning with 3 games on the road against Atl, Balt and Tenn.

      Posted by david_brazil April 14, 09 07:59 PM
    1. why do the pats always play at Indy?

      Posted by Boomer April 14, 09 08:07 PM
    1. Hi David_Brazil. I shared some of my thoughts on strength of schedule earlier today. Those Atlanta, Baltimore and Tennessee games are at home. Here is the link to the strength of schedule thoughts.
      http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/2009/04/strength_of_sch.html
      --Mike

      Posted by Mike Reiss April 14, 09 08:08 PM
    1. The Pats always play Indy because both teams always win their divisions. When you finish first you play another division along with the two first place teams in the other divisions. This year the Pats play the entire AFC South.

      Posted by Mike April 14, 09 08:39 PM
    1. 2003 we played at Indy. 2004, 05, and 06, we played in Foxboro. 07 and 08 we played in Indy... one more year in Indy, and then, if we play the next season, it should be in Foxboro.

      Max

      Posted by quitesanemax April 14, 09 09:05 PM
    1. what's most interesting to me is the division games end in week 15. This can be the most pivotal time for a team to make the playoffs ( look at last year), but the last 2 weeks become almost meaningless.

      Posted by Andy M April 14, 09 09:11 PM

    1. away again against the Colts. Is this 2 or three times in a row?

      away

      Posted by Carl Reiner April 14, 09 09:44 PM
    1. Strength of schedule means nothing at the beginning of the year.
      Check in at the end of the season.
      Last year was an aboration. Steelers had the toughest schedule going in
      and it held form after the season as well.
      Who had Miami, Atlanta or Arizona going to the playoffs?

      Posted by GEF April 15, 09 08:54 AM
    1. I agree with GEF, what appears to be tough now may turn out differently....Injuries, etc, you just don't know

      Posted by Patrick April 15, 09 11:47 AM
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