Pat Kirwan of NFL.com writes on the "money" down in football -- third down -- and provides his best educated guess as to what will be the top 10 units in 2009.
The Patriots aren't part of the article, and it's understandable why.
Last year, the team ranked 26th out of 32 NFL clubs on third down, with opponents converting 44.4 percent of the time. For perspective, the Steelers were the top third-down defense, with opponents converting 31.4 percent of the time.
Kirwan breaks down the qualities he feels contribute to a top third-down defense, and using his thoughts as a guide, here is what the Patriots have in each area.
1) A premier pass rusher that forces the protection to slide to him. Adalius Thomas is the team's top rusher on third down and his return to health should help, although Thomas hasn't had premier production the last two seasons.
2) A very effective rusher on the opposite side, who can take advantage of the single block. Interest in Jason Taylor and Derrick Burgess reflects that the Patriots have thoughts of bolstering this area.
3) A wave of rushers that can keep the unit fresh. When the Patriots focused on pass-rushing in recent offseason work, Richard Seymour, Shawn Crable, Tully Banta-Cain, Vince Redd, Mike Wright, Le Kevin Smith and Myron Pryor were part of a group focused solely on that part of the game (Jarvis Green, who is usually part of this group, wasn't present for on-field work).
4) A power rusher inside to collapse a pocket. Seymour finished with a team-high eight sacks and usually rushes from an inside position. He's a top talent when it comes to this skill.
5) A nickelback who can take a slot receiver or blitz. Second-year cornerback Jonathan Wilhite worked in the slot in recent OTA/minicamp practices. Safety Brandon Meriweather also has the versatility to play the "star" position.
6) A matchup corner that can handle an elite receiver. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden project as the top corners at this time, with Springs the likely "matchup" guy. This looks like an upgrade from 2008 (Deltha O'Neal/Ellis Hobbs).
7) A creative coach that knows when to rush or drop back in coverage. Dean Pees returns for his fourth season as coordinator, although this is Bill Belichick's defense.
8) A front office that knows how to find the talent to build an effective third-down unit. The restructured front office of Bill Belichick/Nick Caserio/Floyd Reese has made this an offseason priority. How much better will be one of the top questions that must be answered in 2009.
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A creative coach that knows when to rush or drop back in coverage. Dean Pees returns for his fourth season as coordinator, although this is Bill Belichick's defense.
I think our defense has lost it's gameday creativity since crennel or did we lose talent?
Just when I was starting to feel better about the LB corps...ugh.
Now I know why I was getting a queasy feeling this offseason as I watched the Giants continue to add pass rushers to their already robust pass rush. And it's also why my heart sank when the Pats neglected to address the pass rush in the draft. Adalius Thomas was pretty good last year, not elite. Pierre Woods, run stopper, IMO, not pass rusher. (I could be wrong; maybe Bill B. has seen something). Crable: question mark. Tully Banta Cain, Vince Redd...just guys. Seymour is the best pass rush weapon they have.
What is frustrating is that it seems like they have championship caliber talent at most of the other positinons, but LB atthe pass rush on paper appears to be the area where they might bes suspect.
I somewhat agree that as a 'D' we have lost the edginess the Pats once played with.But I'd also look at the personal.You have to have DBs that allow you to be creative, too.If your weakness is being beat down the field constantly with long gainers(thanks Delta O'neal), wouldnt you think that would change how you gameplan?It all personnel.
Man when you spell it out, we haven't had a good defensive game plan since the loss of Romeo. I bet if we still had Romeo we would have won the SB in 07. His importance in game changing defences on the fly when required was excellent. We have been pretty vanilla the last 3 years. Pees dosen't cut it.
One point I'd make is that as poor as they were on third down last season, the Patriots still ranked eighth-best in terms of points allowed.
--Mike
Excellent stuff. They put the pads on in 36 days. Then we can start to get a handle on the pass rush and how good the pass coverage is going to be while waiting for the rush.
The NFL Network replayed the 2002 SB the other night. I had forgotten how aggressive the defense USED to be. They played 4 down linemen most of the game with a 5th player rushing in the form of Vrabel from the outside or Pfifer or a safety on a delayed blitz. The d-line got after the quarterback and the DB's (Law, Smith, Milloy, Jones, etc), stuck with the Rams receivers and knocked the crap out of them every time they caught the ball. BTW, I saw at least 5 plays (hitting the QB in the head, hitting a receiver when he was down, late hits OB) that would have been 15 yd unnecessary roughness penalties today. I hope that, with this current group of players, the Pats can get back to the same type of aggressive playmaking defense they used to have. You might get burned occasionally but the offense should be able to put up enough points to more than compensate. Turn em loose Dean. It's not chess.
The 8th best in points allowed is nice and all, but the inability to get off the field on third downs has killed this team for a few seasons now. Last year they are in the playoffs if they stop the Jets on 3rd and 14 in OT, and with as well as they were playing at the end of the year they could have advanced to the AFC title game, maybe even the Superbowl.
I do expect the secondary to be improved. Chung is the real deal and once he gets the defense down he and Merriweather will be a great safety tandem for years. The corners should be greatly improved, Springs is a great talent when healthy, although health and age is a big concern, Bodden knows our defense and is a good cover corner, much better than Hobbs and O'Neal, and I liked what I saw from Wilhite and Wheatley last season.
The difference maker IMO is Crable. If he can be the pass rusher we need this defense can win a Superbowl. If not we may have trouble getting the pass rush needed to consistently get off the field.
Mike, don't bring facts to the table when it comes to the mouth breathers. Of course they know more than the Patriots when it comes to filling-out the roster. It's amazing that the Pats win a single game with the way the mouth breathers spew their venom.
I'm with you, Just Saying. Improved DBs - especially CBs - will allow for more aggressive 3-4 scheming on 3rd down. And Dean Pees is not THE problem (att: haters: if Pees is inadequate, would he continue to hold the very position that made BB an NFL fixture?!)
A (the only?) silver-lining of missing the playoffs is additional time for team-building and new packages/plays.
BB will fix what was broken, but down be surprised if the 3rd down improvement isn't dramatic. As much as he wants the D off the field, he remains a firm believer of:
- better a 1st down, than 6 points
- the NFL's prime directive: don't beat yourself.
Jim L, you recall that the rules about what's allowed in pass coverage have been changed a couple times since then
@Jim L
yes the Pats started 4 down linemen in the 02 SB
but
they started 3 down linemen in the 04 SB and hardly sent in 5
they started 2 down linemen in the 05 SB
So that was hardly the key to winning. Maybe you should learn a thing or two about football before you post.
Football today IS chess. The defensive schemes can be extraordinarily sophisticated, and "turning em loose" as a blanket defensive philosophy won't suffice. I don't know if the Pats were necessarily more aggressive with Crennel, but they did have playmaking personnel both in the linebacking corps and, importantly, in the secondary. Think Ty Law, Vrabel, WIllie McGinest. The key, I think, is not how often you rush four or five, but whether you have the personnel to disrupt the offense on 3rd downs.
We'll see.
If pierre woods is on the field 70-80% of the time...we are in TROUBLE!
I'm interested to see how/if Mayo and Guyton factor into the third down defense. Both are very quick and have good coverage skills, so they seem like logical choices to play LB in a nickle/dime package. And with their quickness both could help support the pass rush when called upon. Chalk it up as one of the things we can look for in training camp and the preseason.
Its great to see my Steelers the best on 3rd downs..I believe the Pats need pass rushers....all the pressure can't come just from the 3 down lineman. I like AD, he should be back to form....but uncertainty at the other OLB...I guess Belicheck is banking on Crable.....WHAT IS WORD IN N.E ABOUT GETTING THAT DEFENSIVE END FROM OAKLAND????????
Btw the Pats only blitzed 8 times in the 02 Super Bowl I'm pretty sure.
The fact that the Patriots were bad on 3rd down last year actually bodes well for them this year. Statistical analyses have shown that teams that are good on 1st and 2nd down but weak on 3rd down (on either side of the ball) tend to dramatically improve the following year, while teams that outperform their 1st and 2nd down performance on 3rd down tend to regress the following year.
Heh! It doesn't take much to rattle the weak of faith, does, it boys?
Most of the posts were solid, mind you: I'm thinking mostly of the first couple...
Pat Kirwan is a damned good writer, but ~ like Dan Shaughnessy ~ he has a decidedly anti-New England bias.
At least HE has an excuse: He spent 8 years with the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!
***
As Just Saying and others've mentioned: It's ALL about personnel:
2008
OLB ~ Thomas, for 1/2 a year, then rookies and retreads. No depth.
ILB ~ Bruschi, with some Seau. Great men. NIGHTMARISH level of play.
ILB ~ Mayo. Solid play as a Rookie.
OLB ~ Vrabel. SEE BRUSCHI + SEAU. NIGHTMARISH.
RCB ~ Ellis Not Hardly Good Enough Hobbs
FS ~ Sanders. Solid, though remarkably unremarkable.
SS ~ Merriweather. Made some plays, missed others.
LCB ~ Delta O'Neal. Am I allowed to say "NIGHTMARISH" thrice, here?
***
When you think about it...it's a miracle we won 11 games.
***
2009 Projected...
OLB ~ 1 Full Season of Thomas, finally allowed to play within himself at one spot!
ILB ~ Mayo. Year 2. BIG jump. BOTH players are legitimate All Pro contenders.
ILB ~ Lenon + Guyton, two World Class Scrappers who MAKE PLAYS! SOLID.
OLB ~ Crable. Year 2. Redd. Year 2. BIG Jumps. Woods. Hyphen. DEPTH.
RCB ~ Leigh MUCH Stronger + Nastier Bodden. You will LOVE this guy. I DO!
FS ~ Eugene CHUNG. Folks...We're about to see Harrison in his YOUTH.
SS ~ Brandon Merriweather. MAJOR Dark Horse candidate, with those around'm.
LCB ~ Shawn Springs. I'm thinking: 20 months left, before Father Time catches'm.
Wihlite. 2nd year. HUGE leap.
Wheatley. 2nd year. HUGE leap.
Butler. By Halloween, I expect he'll be better than Hobbs ever was...and he's our FIFTH best CornerBack!!!
***
We have 3 LB's of Speed, Size, and Power entering their 2nd Year. That is ENORMOUS.
We've replaced HORRIFICALLY slow Ancients, Bruschi + Vrabel, with young FireEaters Lenon + Guyton on the one hand, and Speed, Speed, and Speed, on the other!
We have replaced the mediocre and the bad ~ Hobbs + O'Neal ~ with the Excellent and Explosive, in Springs + Bodden.
We have improved ALL FIVE CornerBack spots...ALL FIVE. Again: Year 2 IS the Quantum Leap year, as knowledgable Patriot fans know.
Many folks have NO IDEA how Eugene Chung is going to TAKE OVER the Secondary. We've got nothing less than Rodney Harrison the Rookie, folks. And by Halloween, I expect he'll be in the lineup.
***
Perhaps most importantly: We have more Depth, more Talent, and more Depth of Talent, than we have EVER had in the Back 8...We've won 3 SUPER BOWLS with less!!!
***
And please do not fail to realize: Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, and the boys were on their OWN, last year. Suddenly, they're getting a TIDAL WAVE of help from the Back 8.
Correlation? Hmm...
How about a guy named Brady, going from Reche @#$%^&* Caldwell and crew, one year, to Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and the gang, the next?
I respectfully submit that most Patriot fans have no IDEA what they're about to witness.
We are still not sure how much of an influence Don Capers had on last years Defense. With him gone things may play out a little differently. I am expecting a lot from that secondary especially Meriweather Chung and and last years two draft picks.
Addendum: In my defense, I was distracted by Kitties!
Otherwise, I SURE as hell wouldn't've forgot to mention ~ indeed, I did THINK of him, but got distracted, mid sentence! ~ our X Factor, Tank Williams!
Whoa there Fanatical big fella!
***
Did you really need that 17th Red Bull?
You might be giving us optimists a bad name...
Interesting stuff, MJK. Where did you find that info? I'd definitely like to read more about it...
Heh! Yeah...What can I say? ;oP
yeah the pass rush is by far my biggest concern with this team. i dont see where they expect to get consistent production outside of Adalius and Seymour. pierre woods is ok, but nothing great. hopefully crable steps up. and to fanatical: id love it if things turned out that way, but there are things called injuries.
mike: wouldn't the younger, more athletic bodden be the guy matching up against top WRs? i actually envision either wheatley or butler beating out springs for the starting spot at some point this season.
The "eighth-best in terms of points allowed" means less given the last game against Bills was the worst windy game in NFL history so that the stat was for 15 game in essense.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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