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Globe 10.0: How many wins?

Posted by Chris Forsberg, Boston.com Staff August 7, 2009 11:10 AM

The folks in Las Vegas have pegged the Patriots as favorites in the AFC by establishing an over/under of 11.5 wins for the 2009 season. So, which way are you leaning?

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That's the question on today's episode of Globe 10.0, where Bob Ryan and Kevin Paul Dupont debate whether the Patriots can finish with 12 wins or better (which both hosts think they will).

As Ryan points out: "They were 11-5 last year," with Matt Cassel, and while the schedule appears tougher, he'll take the over with a healthy Tom Brady back at the helm of the offense.

What's your take? Submit a vote in our poll below and leave your rationale in the comments section.

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30 comments so far...
  1. Sept. 14 BUFFALO (w)
    Sept. 20 Jets (w) Jets have no O
    Sept. 27 ATLANTA (W)
    Oct. 4 BALTIMORE (W) Lost d coach and a few players
    Oct. 11 Denver (w) They are going to be awful
    Oct. 18 TENNESSEE (w) Not the same team without Albert
    Oct. 25 Tampa Bay (w) They will be terrible
    Nov. 1 BYE
    Nov. 8 MIAMI (w) No issues
    Nov. 15 Indianapolis (L) Always tough to win at Ind, but they are going downhill
    Nov. 22 N.Y. JETS (w)
    Nov. 30 New Orleans (w)
    Dec. 6 Miami (w)
    Dec. 13 CAROLINA (w)
    Dec. 20 Buffalo (w)
    Dec. 27 JACKSONVILLE (w)
    Jan. 3 Houston (w)
    15-1. I really don't think the schedule is that hard to be honest. Does not matter what teams did last year... If Brady stays healthy this team is going to be tough to beat

    Posted by #9 August 7, 09 11:38 AM
  1. who are the 3% who think its under 11? okay jets fans go play somewhere else....

    Posted by joe August 7, 09 11:54 AM
  1. They are a 12-13 win team.

    Brady might struggled out of the gate while he gets his "sea legs" back and all those new DBs are going to need time to gel.

    Besides we want a team that starts to peak after Thanksgiving. Not one that peaks in October.

    Posted by joe August 7, 09 12:06 PM
  1. 12-14 wins

    No idea what D is going to show up but it should be alot better than last years.

    Tenn,Baltimore,Miami 1, Indy are going to be very tough wins and I think they pull out 3 at best 2 at worst.

    Posted by dorian August 7, 09 12:17 PM
  1. I don't think Tenn and Balt will be nearly has good as last year... Tenn sucked against the run when Albert was out... Balt does not scare me at all.. D coach gone with some proven players.

    Posted by #9 August 7, 09 12:26 PM
  1. I think this schedule is very difficult. Colts, Titans, Ravens will be tough as always. Plus you have to leave room for potential surprises. That said though, I do like the Pats for at least 12 wins.

    Posted by Jon M August 7, 09 12:31 PM
  1. 11.5 wins is outrageously low. However, people shouldn't bet money on moral grounds. It encourages others (if not yourself) to go crazy and chase lots of bad bets with good money. It also buys the refs and ruins the game.

    Posted by PaulK August 7, 09 12:31 PM
  1. As long as we the last one.

    Posted by Jess August 7, 09 12:39 PM
  1. 12 wins is a minimum for the team with a Healthy Brady. Of course Vegas doesn't care if he's healthy or not.

    Posted by Jack August 7, 09 12:44 PM
  1. As was proven last year, it depends which team takes the field. Who gets injured? How many games do they play without Brady, without Moss, without Welker, without Seymour, or whoever? If they remain as healthy as they did in 2007/2008--one high ankle sprain notwithstanding--the real question is how many do they lose? Who is going to beat them? The answer is no one.
    If they stay healthy, I think they go undefeated again. This time including the Super Bowl.
    There; I said it.

    Posted by Mardak August 7, 09 12:45 PM
  1. As was proven last year, it depends which team takes the field. Who gets injured? How many games do they play without Brady, without Moss, without Welker, without Seymour, or whoever? If they remain as healthy as they did in 2007/2008--one high ankle sprain notwithstanding--the real question is how many do they lose? Who is going to beat them? The answer is no one.
    If they stay healthy, I think they go undefeated again. This time including the Super Bowl.
    There; I said it.

    Posted by Mardak August 7, 09 12:45 PM
  1. You give us wins over pass heavy teams like New Orleans/Houston and balanced attacks with Atlanta/Carolina. I don' t think they'll be easy wins. I see 12 - 13 wins as pretty reasonable. There are also unknown qualities to this season with almost entirely new teams in Denver and New York, etc. It'll be interesting. IMO, the O will need a fair share of help from the D to be as good as we hope to be. If they do step up, this will be a scary team.

    Posted by rusH1023 August 7, 09 12:52 PM
  1. I'm with you Mardak. I had 19-0 written on my office wall 6 weeks ago. I did the same thing in 2007 and we know how close that was.

    #8 - We won our last game last year. What's so great about that (I know, I know... that's not what you mean).

    Posted by DLC August 7, 09 01:34 PM
  1. I think 13-14 wins. There are some decent teams that the Pats have to play. However, when you look at what the Pats went through when they went 16-0, that schedule was a lot harder. They had to beat 6 (Dallas, NYG, Indy, SD, Phil, & Pitt) playoff teams. Like this season, there were a few junk teams, but that schedule was hard. If the D is right around 10 in the league, the Pats will be hard to stop.

    Posted by Glenn August 7, 09 01:46 PM
  1. I think 13-15 wins. There are some decent teams that the Pats have to play. However, when you look at what the Pats went through when they went 16-0, that schedule was a lot harder. They had to beat 6 (Dallas, NYG, Indy, SD, Phil, & Pitt) playoff teams. Like this season, there were a few junk teams, but that schedule was hard. If the D is right around 10 in the league, the Pats will be hard to stop. The Pats can deal with their regular injuries, but if Brady get hurt again, all bets are off.

    Posted by Glenn August 7, 09 01:49 PM
  1. Last year I expected the Patriots to be a 13-15 game winner with Brady. When he went down, I expected them to be a 10-12 game winner with Cassel. This year they look like right around a 12-15 game winner centered around 13 games - not so much that the Patriots didn't get better in a lot of places, but their opposition seems to have stiffened up considerably since 2007. Winning 10 games or less seems like several sets of bad luck have to hit.

    Posted by Todd P. August 7, 09 08:29 PM
  1. the patriots will be a relatively weak defensive team. fortunately, they can score and score and score, but it looks like they will land as the 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. schedule is not that bad.

    Posted by thetuna August 7, 09 09:16 PM
  1. I think the Pats can very easily take on the likes of the Saints and Texans. Good matchups that favor the Pats.

    The Panthers and Falcons worry me but its more than likely going to come down to who has a better defense who can make 4-5 stops instead of the 2-3 stops. The Panthers are getting banged up already in camp and that D outside of Peppers and Beason just doesnt stand the task of beating Moss and Brady.

    The Falcons D is in a rebuilding mode and facing Randy Moss, Welker, and Brady is going to be way too much.

    The Saints I dont believe in their "new" D and Jenkins hasnt even reported to camp yet. The Saints offense will make the Pats D work but the Pats defenisve line is what stands out in that matchup.

    The Texans last game of the year and they are going to do everything to stop Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels and make Slaton and the number 2 WR beat em. And by that time of the year we should know what that Texans D is made out of which will either be hard steel or cotton.

    The homer in me believes the sky is the limit for this team and 19-0 is a huge possiblity. But the NFL fan in me says 13-3 and this team learns from their losses.

    Posted by Dorian August 7, 09 09:17 PM
  1. I think the pats can salvage 12 wins. It is all going to come down to the AFC championship game with Pittsburg. Their defense was brutal last year. We have a lot of the same players Welker, Moss that got abused by Pitts last year. We know the old addage offense wins games defense wins championships. If we get through Pittsburg we win the whole thing.

    Posted by Kevin August 7, 09 09:28 PM
  1. People really seem to spin last year's season. Everyone seems to focus on the fact that the team was the first to go 11-5 and not make the playoffs in quite some years.

    People forget that going into last year, the Patriots didn't just have the easiest schedule in the NFL. They had the easiest schedule in NFL history!!! They were playing inept teams that had no chance of winning even if the Patriots played poorly. Their schedule was a who's who of the top ten draft picks (the ten worst teams). Playing teams like Atlanta, NO, etc will be much tougher than playing the Raiders, San Fran, and St. Louis. Not to mention, the divisional opponents are much tougher. If Brady gets hurt this year, the Patriots will win 5 games. If Brady's healthy, they'll win 10.

    Posted by mike August 7, 09 10:45 PM
  1. It's pretty funny that 95%+ fans think they know better than Vegas. I guess this is why people who bet sports take a beating when they bet on their favorite team. The Vegas oddsmakers make their living setting lines. Think about putting a week's pay that the Patriots will win 12 games and see how much less confident you are.

    Sounds like some easy money to be made on betting the Patriots this year ;) I guess these posters are all the same people that gave the Giants a zero percent chance of beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

    Posted by Frank D August 7, 09 11:03 PM
  1. with the coach we have and the dedication of winning i think we will win at-least 13 games this season if not more

    Posted by elia bourji August 8, 09 02:00 AM
  1. let's hope the pats' defense is the same caliber of the offense. defense wins championship in the nfl.

    Posted by monkeyking August 8, 09 02:33 AM
  1. Is anybody besides me PSYCHED to see the BRADY to MOSS connection back in action!!!! Another 16 - 0 season.

    Posted by MCR August 8, 09 09:33 AM
  1. Tom Brady Does Not Play Defense. If Defensive Secondary and Pressure on
    Quarterback does not Improve 2nd Round and Done.

    Posted by JJJ August 8, 09 12:26 PM
  1. 19-0 !

    Posted by tellthemalll August 8, 09 01:23 PM
  1. Defense has to be better! Looks like BB can mold this group. Keep in mind other teams have not made that great of moves.

    Miami will not fool anybody. Jets will play close until the third quarter when our offense should take over.

    Multiple injuries to key players besides Brady last year.
    Injuries will impact the results. Look at red Sox!

    Posted by edwo1935 August 8, 09 02:57 PM
  1. "It's pretty funny that 95%+ fans think they know better than Vegas."

    If 95% of fans though that the # of wins fell on one side or the other, then Vegas would have messed up badly. Vegas isn't betting that there is a 50% chance of each outcome...they are betting that 50% will bet on each side.

    Posted by Todd P. August 8, 09 08:26 PM
  1. #28, exactly what I was gonna say. if 95% bet over and the pats do happen to go over they will be screwed. they want 50-50 on either side so no matter what the outcome is they still make $.

    I say 12+ is realistic. 12 being with an improved defense and same kind of offensive fire power as 2007. If they defense is really good (top 5), which it has the potential to be with our new younger LBs and secondary along with the always good D line I can see them pushing it to 14 or 15. Not gonna claim anything more because we all know how that turns out

    Posted by brent August 10, 09 10:38 AM
  1. Brady is back ( hopefully ) No one blends a team better then Hoodie. I give them 12 to 13 wins. The defense has to gel and that could take a few games. The offense should keep us afloat until then. It should be one hell of a season.

    Posted by Bob August 10, 09 03:30 PM
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