Projecting the 53

Mike, so you think the Pats are going to cut LeVoir, O'Callaghan and Britt over BJGE? It seems like a lot of talent at OT (not to mention at OG with Bussey, Yates, Wendell and Connolly) headed out the door that you know other teams will pick up.

Also, I noticed that LeVoir is no longer listed on the Pats' roster on the team website. Anything we should read into that?

Probably PUP for LeVoir. O'Callaghan a tough cut, no doubt.
--Mike

I'd be curious to see the flip side of this list - that is, the players that are now on the roster that don't make this list, and what, if any, practice squad eligibility they might have, and any possible projections on cap at that point. I know, I could make the list myself, Mike, and post if here if you tell me where to find it PS info :)

Interesting take on the roster... you seemed to have thought McGowan was on the outside looking in earlier in TC. Now you feel he's ahead of Slater ? Also, Slater & Alexander were - as you had observed - on the core ST. That's not enough to keep them onboard ?

I agree with John that some of that OL talent would be hard to cut to keep BJGE. But maybe the OL players are easier to hide on the PS. Or maybe Cleveland and Denver swoop in to swipe them.

Matt Slater on special teams? Can't ague with keeping the players you list. But, it is easy to forget the players cut as a result. Slater is one of those. Can you list the top 10 cuts that you would rather keep?

Mike, I also didn't see Ray Ventrone as making the roster. He's been quietly productive, especially on special teams. We even saw him on offense in the preseason game. Do you think he could add more value than a guy like Slater, especially with the versatile Edelman making the team?

Mike, who are your surprise veteran cuts? Do some players on their contract year make way for the future?

Maroney - Was still dancing Thursday.
Watson - His skill set is now redundant. Contract Year.
Galloway - Nunn or Ventrone are more versatile and the future.
Bruschi - Can he stay healthy? Is the four man line beyond his skill set.
Springs - Can he stay health?

W

I don't see them keeping BJGE (who I really like) over a 9th OL. Besides that, it looks good.

Mike,

Brandon Tate... PUP or IR?

My math isn't too good...but when you add up the numbers looks like 56 spots.

Gotta find a way to keep BJGE tho....maybe only keep 2 RB's?

How solid is Bruschi's spot?

Mike,
Sorry about previous post..meant keep only keep 2 QB's to make a spot for BJGE.

I really like this list. It would be too bad to let Nunn go. I don't think we can sneak him onto the practice squad. You know PIoli and McDaniels are waiting to snap up any player worth their salt.

Mike, These are the type of articles I like. You step out and make predictions and assessments based on what you see as opposed to, "I don't feel I'm able to give an opinion on that right now". One interesting observation: it seems on every position breakdown, one could make the case you not only listed the players making the 53 man roster, but you even listed them in order of their selecction in that spot. (Moss. Light, Baker, Brady, Mayo, etc) With this in mind, it's interesting Bruschi was last in the LB list. Freudian slip?

I think LeKevin Smith makes the cut. He was with the ones on Thu, he knows the system, and he's versatile enough to play DE or DT.

Everyone seems to think it's a lock that starting 5 OL will return but I'm not so sure about Kaczur. I think O'Callaghan has much more upside and may already be an upgrade.

I also think Slater's time with Pats went up in smoke with Edelman's return TD. Has Slater done anything in his short time here?

Even as a UMaine alumni, I can't see how McGowan makes this team. I think Tank Williams will be given the nod there.

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I would be very surprised if they keep only one backup OT. I'd say cut either Green-Ellis or one of the TEs.

I also think one of the ILBs will make it over either Banta-Cain or Crable. Maybe Lenon or Alexander.

Mike, This list looks pretty good but how does Ray Ventrone not make the team?

Hey Mike, I noticed there was no Ray Ventrone on your list. He may not be valuable to one specific position, but he's very versatile (can play both receiver and safety). While I do put him and Slater in the same player-type grouping, I think Ventrone is so much more valuable to special teams than Slater. My guess is BB keeps Ventrone on the roster solely for his special teams talent. Also I don't think Belichick will only keep 8 o-lineman on the roster. I'm not sure who else gets cut, maybe one of the running backs, but BB is probably gonna have to keep more than 8.

Ya I don't agree with your offensive line cuts either. Given that they've had problems in the past with the OL I think they'll cut a safety and add an OL.

Britt and LeVoir are no great loss in my mind, but O'Callaghan has a lot of potential. Bussey could make it to the practice squad, at least, and he has flexibility between tackle and guard. I like BJGE, but not enough to give him a roster spot unless someone else goes down. I still think Watson may be traded to KC, freeing up another roster spot.

I'm finding it increasingly difficult to see how the team can justify keeping Tedy. His diminished skills render him a pure running down LB. Even in those situations, based on what's been reported from camp and the 1st p/s game, the team figures to use a 4-3 (picture the middle stuffed with Wilfork and Brace), and how do you take Mayo out of the middle? If he his kept on the 53, then I still have to wonder, who are the 8 players you've listed above that would be de-activated on game day ahead of Tedy? At this point in his career, he's toward the bottom of the depth chart, and those guys usually need to have special teams / multiple position versatility to be active on game day. Thoughts?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Belichick grabbed another veteran LB... Still think he made a mistake by not grabbing Mauluaga in the second round to apprentice under Bruschi...

I kept seeing number 45 on the Pats defense in on tackles and rushing the quarterback He looked impressive... so much so I had to look him up ...Rob Ninkovich I don't see him in your list of 53 so I take it you don't believe he has a chance on the roster?

Mike, thanks for doing a thankless task which leaves you to be prepared for getting attacked from various sides, e.g. players in whom you don't have faith in regard to making the roster and fans who have pet-players in the roster-cut category. My question is this: if Brian Hoyer saw no action the other night, is not discussed your QB analysis, does not show in the Globe's own version of the Patriots' roster, and I see no mention of his being discharged when I do a Google-news search, where is he? If he still is a Patriot, do you see him as making the practice squad?

Still think they're going to trade Watson before all's said and done.
Any thoughts on that one Mike?

I think they should play Nunn in the preseason more and see how he does. But I think he is becoming expendable since Edelman is doing a decent job thus far. But I am not on the Edelman wagon yet until he proves his worth in the next couple of games.

Looks about right Mike. Who gets cut for Tate to make it back onto the roster? Because he said he was 85 percent at his pro day so he has to be pretty damn close to being healthy right now.

What WR gets cut or does he stay on IR?

Great job Mike Reiss!!

My feelings:
- The Pats keep 9 players on the offensive line
- I don't think they keep 5 RBs and 4 TEs, someone from that group gets cut or traded. I could see Watson going to KC or Morries getting cut. I see BJGE making the cut.
- Le Kevin Smith or Matt Slater makes the club over Banta-Cain

Mike, when is Bruschi expected back on the field? Will he make this team?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Galloway is not part of the team going into the season. If he doesn't stand out among the receivers, there seem to be some versatile and promising young players that could take his place.

I am looking forward to seeing what happens with those last 10 roster spots that are so hard to predict.

Good list, for the most part. Also a clear reminder of why I hate the 53-man roster limit so much. In the interest of parity, good teams that have talent and are effective at evaluating and drafting said talent, get vultured by the bottom-feeding teams that can't develop their own players. There's no good reason why the limit shouldn't be 55 or 56.

@daves Yes, your math isn't too good. The list has 53.

Banta-Cain may not make this team. From the three of Watson, Smith and Thomasm one of them will be gone too. If a team loses a RB during preseason, Maroney could be dealt too.

2 things are clear: If the Patriots have the usual few serious injuries occur in the next 3 weeks then they will still be able to put together a quality 53 man roster. If they stay healthy, there will be some tough cuts before opening day with players being added to other team's 53 man roster. I think BGE will have to beat out Maroney to make the team. Another possible shocker would be if Lenon out-performs Bruschi. You've got to earn your spot every year.

I'm thinking the same thing as #9. What's the deal with Brandon Tate? I don't expect much (if anything) from him this year, as he's coming back from injury and he's buried on the depth chart... but still, is he PUP or IR?

Seems weird to have four TEs and 8 other OL. Three backup TEs and three backups for the rest of the line? Even if the Pats use a 2-TE formation a lot, that seems a bit unbalanced. I'm not a mind-reader, but I'd be happier if BB kept more depth on the OL than that.

I think the Pats have to keep BJGE, seeing as three of the other RBs have been injured a lot in recent years. And shouldn't we see Fred Taylor take a snap in a pre-season game before we give him a roster spot?

Green-Ellis has earned the right to be on this team. Can't say the same about Maroney. BGE hits the hole/line while he keeps moving forward. Maroney STILL thinks he's Barry Sanders. Look, surely the coaches see the same thing we all do. It's fundamentals. You hit the hole and if you don't, you run through the line. BGE gets it and puts it all out there. If pre-season is about earning a spot on the roster than BGE has done that. He's picking up where he left off last year. When they look at the film, how can they justify him over BGE? Maroney has had enough chances.

Please forgive me-- who is BJGE ?

Pretty close to what I had written down before the Eagles game. But it's all still really wild guessing. The only accurate thing to be said is that there are still a lot of guys on the bubble and a lot of unanswered questions.

Until I see David Thomas take a handoff and convert in short yardage, I'm not completely sold on the TE/H-back thing - not enough to rely exclusively on Maroney and "three old guys" in the backfield (I'd almost rather try Hochstein in the FB role). So, I'd keep BJGE. I'm not sure that any of the TE's, perhaps aside from Baker, are a lock to make the 53 or be cut. Watson seems to be the only trade possibility.

Springs could go on PUP. Bruschi could yet retire.

Had six WRs on the roster in 2008, but only three were truly credible pass-catchers. The others - Washington, Aiken and Slater - were almost exclusively special-teamers. Unless Galloway shows some consistent brilliance in the next game or two, I think he could actually miss the cut in favor of someone who's a merely a decent receiver but also a good ST contributor (besides Edelman and Aiken).

The O-line depth thing scares me, too. I'm thinking Ohrnberger has to be REALLY good - significantly better than O'Callaghan - to be retained in the 53. If they're close, Ohrnberger should be retained on the P/S and Ryan make the 53.

If Tank Williams can make a visible positive impact in coverage over the next couple weeks, probably him over Alexander.

I still hold out hope for Ventrone, Slater and even Ninkovich.

Eh. We'll probably have a much better handle on it after this week's practices and Thursday's game.

Mike, I don't see them cutting Ray Ventrone as he is a key special teamer for the past two seasons. Belichick loves his work ethic and attitude. I notice every year "we" tend to overrate the new guys(veteran free agents, veterans traded for) in place of the ones on the roster and every year they end up cutting free agents they signed in the spring (or guys they traded for). I don't doubt they cut Alex Smith (if they keep Watson). I could also see a guy like Greg Lewis cut if he doesn't make an impact in camp. The kid never really did anything in Philly when they were desperate for receivers. I also don't see them giving up on OL guys like Yates, etc that they have worked to develop the past few years.

Sorry folks Maroney will get cut before opening day.

There is NO WAY Banta-Cain doesn't make this team, they need his rush from the outside. TBC can get to the quarterback that is why he's here, we saw that Thursday nite against an all-pro OT! I love what BB is cooking up with this defense, with Brady back in control of this offense their potency is a given. That allows Bill to invest more time on the Dee, and it shows already. I'm excited! I think the Pats reloaded their roster and know the Mad Scientist goes to work.

BJGE = Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis

I don't see McGowan making it over Tank Williams. Again, versatility as Williams can be brought on in various packages whereas McGowan seems limited.

Also, I don't see them keeping five running backs. Yes BJGE runs hard and I would hate to cut him but do you really risk cutting Sammie Morris or Fred Taylor? Not happening. Also, they won't keep four tight ends unless you cut one of the RBs. Smith hasn't shown me much and Watson is hurt and in a contract year. Maybe we trade him for a second round pick to further strengthen our draft day positioning next year. The Bengals are in dire need of a tight end.

LeKevin Smith looked good on Thursday but I can't argue with keeping Pryor over him. Pryor is insurance in case something happens to Brace and Wilfork.

When at the cut dates?

The Pats wont keep 4TE and 5 RB only will carry 8 spots between those positions No BJGE but slater or an other special teamer makes squad.

Keep an eye on Nunn on ST and WR. Could be another answer for WR if Galloway or Lewis don't cut the mustard. Would like to see more of him in the next 3 games to see what he's got. If not, is he PS eligible?

ben watson WAY before Maroney.

4 TE's seems one too many to me - even for the TE-loving Pats.

Good list, Mike.

Gotta disagree with a few. BB won't keep 4 TE's. If Thursday was any indicator, Smith won't be here. I also can't see Tank Williams not making the team.

There's always a few surprises. Maroney didn't show a whole lot....again. And Shawn Springs needs to get on the field or he'll be gone too.

I'd also like to see them find a way to keep Ventrone, Ninkovich and another OL.

But, man, that first unit offense looked pretty good, didn't it? Brady already looks like he's on a mission.

I still that Maroney is not being used in the proper manner. He is NOT an inside runner and they continue trying to ram him inside the tackles where there is no hole.

Where does "Tank: Williams fit in, if he does. His name is missing.

As far as Tully Banta-Cain is concerned, I believe he will have a superb season. I have always liked his speed to the quarterback. His last season with the Pats he was, like, a split second from a handful of sacks, but he did force a "hurry" on many occasions. I think he has gotten better and will prove it.

The one thing I would like to see from the offense this season is a lot more first down passing, and not from the shotgun, but with a lot of play action used. That, by itself, will improve the running game. But we can not continue to toss Maroney, or whoever else is at RB into the line on first down and get more of those 2nd and 9 situations, especially in the red zone. I think Maroney will have a fine season if they dont mis use him again.

One last thing, IMO, Edelman, for all that he did against the Eagles, I still want to see more of him against first team defenses.

This is what I have for my projection. I see things a bit differently than Mike's 53...

ACTIVE ROSTER:
QB (3): Brady, O'Connell, Walter
RB (4): Faulk, Taylor, Maroney, Green-Ellis ** BJGE takes Morris`s spot
TE (3): Baker, Smith, Thomas ** Watson is traded as I cant see 4 TE
WR (6): Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Lewis, Slater ** Lewis takes Aiken's spot
OT (4): Light, Kaczur, Vollmer, O'Callaghan
G:(4): Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Ohrnberger ** Yates loses his spot to Ohrnberger
C (1): Kopppen
DT (4): Wilfork, Brace, Pryor, Wright
DE (4): Warren, Seymour, Green, Smith
OLB (4): Thomas, Burgess, Woods, Crable
ILB (4): Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Alexander
CB (5): Springs, Bodden, Wilhite, Butler, Wheatley
Safety (4): Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Ventrone
Specialists (3): Gostkowski(K), Hanson(P), Hodell(LS)

PRACTICE SQUAD:
Richard(DT), Bussey(G), Nunn(WR), Hoyer(QB)

IR/PUP:
Tate(WR), LeVoir(OT), McKenzie(LB)

TRADED OR RELEASED:
Watson(TE), Morris(RB), Aiken(WR), Yates(G), Connolly(G), Britt(OT), Banta-Cain(LB), Lenon(LB), Williams(S), McGowan(S)

I look at these lists and only one thing stands out....that regardless of who does or doesn't make the cut., this team is absolutely loaded! Good Lord they are deep in all areas!

BJGE is Ben Jarvis Green Ellis (a/k/a The Law Firm)

No way do the patriots cut O'Callaghan. The guy is a capable starter who appears to be 100% recovered from his injury.

Paul, good list except there's no way Sammy Morris will get cut...he may be the best or 2nd most productive RB on the team! I'd rather they cut Maroney if I had to choose between Morris, Maroney and Law Firm.

Ben Watson won't be cut, unless it's for financial reasons only....Brady trusts him, he's very smart, and he's a good all around TE. Thomas (TE) will always be in my doghouse for that stupid personal foul in the Colts game that extended their drive and lost the game for us. I think he's gone before Watson for sure.

Based on Mike's projections and the comments herein, a few things need to be said, IMO:
- Sammy Morris is much better than some seem to think.
- Absent an injury, BJGE is not worthy of a roster spot. He seems as over-valued as Morris is under-valued.
- I can't see 4 TE's on this team
- Tedy B should not be on the final roster.
- Need an outside speed WR to play opposite Moss, so Galloway needs to step up or we have a hole.
- Someone noteworthy is gonna be "taken into the parking lot and made an example of". Who? Could be Maroney, Watson, Kazur, Galloway, Springs etc.
Could be Maroney, Watson, Kazur,

Mike, how about adding a runner-up on your list? In this way, we can see who's on the bubble and how tough is the competition. Oh, I bet Galloway will be cut.

Yeah, there's no way Morris gets cut the way he ran last year.

As for Ventrone, I like him a lot. But he's one of the "safe" cuts. They have a chance of actually resigning him during the course of the season if they cut him. Don't forget, he was cut once, signed by the Jets, and cut by them -- so he's not exactly a hot commodity around the league. But a guy like Ohrnberger would never clear waivers. Slater might not either.

Having a list like this on Friday will make a whole lot more sense...but, I'd like to see more OL's in general. That's not a position you want to have to just pick someone up because of injuries, especially if you've just cut a guy who's been in your system. Also, I'm tired of phony maroney, give the ball to Morris. Who cares about a 50 yard "threat", How many of those has he had?

for those who think bjge is better than morris please, watch the game closely. morris has more burst and breaks tackles. bjge is just a workman. he showed last year that while he IS willing, hes not talented. he runs where they tell him and shows good effort. morris is the best back on the roster if he can stay healthy. taylor, who went in the robert edwards draft, probably has 2 years left in his body. between him and morris those are the backs with dynamic range that no other back on the team has. edelman unless he blows it by not catching balls from scrimmage COULD be the next welker. david thomas needs to 'show' or he should be gone. he hasnt done anything positive during his stay on the team. finally, simply

continued, finally and simply put, why is bruschi even being considered for the team? dont say the cliched 'he is a coach on the field'. he may know what he is supposed to do and what the other backers are supposed to do but HE can no longer do it. over the last 3 years he hasnt made a play against the run and even senior seau outperformed him, especially in the afc championship game against the chargers. I know he negotiates his own contract and therefore is underpaid but loyalty hasnt been a factor in belichicks' past and is shouldnt be now. mayo and guyton/redd should be the inside backers and there is plenty of depth on the squad now finally. say goodbye tedi, you had a nice career thats now over.

Didn't anyone notice that Wheatly could not cover anyone in the Eagles game? He was picked on consistantly the whole time he was out there. He was out of position on every pass thrown his way....and most passes were thrown his way. He's toast, unless BB is desperate!
This guy is the secondarys' worst nightmare! Other than him sticking out......I don't see Watson sticking around unless they have to eat a lot of contract.....or can't trade him. Maroney has to be on shakey ground as well....he's got to be driving BB nuts!

Comment for JR (#23) I, too, was disappointed when BB did not draft Mauluaga. He was a great tackler and covered a lot of ground for USC. I even thought he was worth trading up to get in Round 1. However, there had to be something significantly questionable about him for so many teams to pass on him. Besides I have a hunch BB may have had the 2010 draft in mind with regards to getting another great young ILB. With his connection with Florida's Urban Meyer, I wouldn't be surprised if BB will be waiting in the weeds to trade up to get ILB Brandon Spikes, who's not only a good tacker and has coverage skills, but is also the leader of Florida's defense. Check him out this year.

Denver will likely swoop in for either BJGE OR any O-line cuts (whichever they make the tough call to sacrifice) before they can slip them to the PS. McDaniels is well aware of all of them. Guarantee he'll snatch up a tough runner like BJGE if he becomes available. Ditto for O'Callaghan. With ex-coordinators (and personnel men) in charge elsewhere with less depth on their rosters, it'll be tough to sneak anyone onto PS here. They know what we have and they'll be watching!

Great point, seobrien! Whatever cuts DO happen, we are going to have to lose some well-known players ( either from our own past or big names from other teams ). There are going to be teams lined up around the block to scoop up our "leftovers"!

I agree with Ted in San Diego...Morris is solid and should get a roster spot. Trade Maroney to a travelling dance troupe, where he can light up the dancefloor. This is the NFL, Lawrence; we need productive runners, not jitterbug instructors.

you guys need to remember there are 31 other teams out there trying to make their final roster cuts too, most of the guys the pats cut will still be available for PS just because there will be too many other players available. i know alot of teams watch what NE is doing to see if they can get someone good we cant use, but their all going to be struggling to find room for the guys they have. you won't see many more signings before the season starts, only to replace injuries at this point. problem is you can only have 5 players on the PS and i'm sure the pats will have to let go of more than 5 players they will want to keep.

thanks for the projection, I had been really wanting to see this after the first game.

I have to say though, your list is way to thin at inside linebacker for a 3-4. You have Mayo, Bruschi, and Guyton (and Thomas if he must), but is that realistic if we haven't seen for sure that they're going to a 4-3 Defense? Not to mention the defensive backups who are special teamers who seem to be missing from this list. I would hate to see Green-Ellis, who looks really promising whenever he plays, lost to another team just because Maroney is holding down the young RB position, but I don't see how we carry that many runningbacks.
I think Watson and Smith as receiving TE's are redundant as well. BB must have seen Smith as an improvement to deal for him, so is there still a good chance of dealing Watson?

I think people are being a little to hard on Galloway. Remember this offense is very complex it was only his first game....wait till game 3-4 where we can judge these players better. Right now for some its to early to tell.

I dont think Bruschi should make the cut, but it would be nice to have him stay around as a LB coach or something. The guy is very smart, and has a lot of heart.

I was really suprised to see Ray Ventrone left off of the list. Getting rid of him is like getting rid of 3 players at once; a saftey, slot wide reciever and excellent special teams player. And as for one of the comments I read earlier about him being a "safe cut", I totally disagree with that. He was cut by the Jets two years ago. He has grown alot as a player over that time. If he is cut he will be signed by another team, and wont be cut for a long time. Not signing him would be a huge mistake in my opinion, and based on what I have read, alot of other peoples opinions also.

I would cut one of the backs or Tight Ends and keep Tank Williams because he can play linebacker and Saftey. He can also help on special teams.

QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Taylor
FB/H back D. Thomas
TE Baker, Watson
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis
OL Light, Kazur, Mankins, Neal, Koppen, Hochstein, Volmer, Yates, Orhenburger, O'Callahan
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Brace, Pryor, Wright, Green, Burgess. Stephen Willams
LB Thomas, Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Woods, Banta Cain
CB Bodden, Springs, Butler, Wilhite, Wheatley
S Sanders, Merriweather, T Williams, McGowan, Chung
P Chris Hanson
K Goskowski
LS Ingram
KR Edileman

After watching the Bengals preseason game live from Gillette my first concern is our second sting offensive line. If one of our lineman go down, Brady is a dead man if he has to rely on his backups. As far as Ventrone not being on your roster, I think that he has worked far too hard, and show more versatility than any other player on this roster. I agree strongly with Paul (#71) that he is not a "Safe Cut". The Jets, according to Eric Mangini, cut him because they though that he was a "Safe Cut". I would keep Ventrone without a second though and throw a rookie with PS eligibility on the PS and make them work for a roster spot.

ehhh No. I see no reason for Sammy Morris to get cut. I like BJGE too, but if you HAVE to cut an RB, it would be the least experienced guy, or maybe MAYBE Maroney if he goes down again. Keep BJGE on speed dial.. I do agree that Ben Watson, & sadly- VERY VERY sadly- Mr Bruschi are going to be leaving the locker room by Sept. 4th..