Projecting the 53, Part II

Mike, any reason to think that Tank Williams might beat out Eric Alexander? He certainly has played well so far in preseason. Also, any chance that Green-Ellis gets traded? How about O'Callaghan?

So it's to early to give up on Wheatley a 2008 2nd round pick but it's all right to give up on Crable a 2008 3rd round pick? Both players should make the team as it's to early to give up on either one. Pass rushers don't grow on trees and Crable needs time to grow. And there is no way Alexander should make the team over him, even if Alexander is a "core" special teams player. When was the last time Alexander made a play on specials teams? He can't hold the jock of Larry Izzo, Sam Aiken, or Pierre Woods as far as being a special teams player. Bruschi, Woods, Guyton, TBC, or D. Thomas could easily replace him on specials teams. Plus he contributes nothing to the Defense.

I dont believe nunn would make it to the practice sguad.

I mostly agree, but even though I am a big Slater fan, I keep Ventrone and drop Slater. Slater will be picked by KC (unimpressive special teams in the 2 games). Crable is PS eligible, right?

I'd move Slater out for Nunn. Maybe Slater could hang out on the practice squad instead. Hoyer would be a good switch, too, but Edelman's versatility already gives them four quarterbacks.

In any case, the roster is totally stacked and these Slater-for-Nunn problems are the kind it's good to have. Go, Pats!

It seems a little early to give up on Crable, especially considering he at least has the potential to become a contributor. We've seen what Alexander can do (was it '06 AFCC?) and it isn't much. Special teams play can bump a player into the roster over a different player if they're both backups and one can contribute on ST and one can't...but Crable might actually be more than a career backup. Alexander is a bum. Cut him.

Twould be dissapointing if Crable never plays a meaningful down for the Pats but there have been bigger busts, and there will be still.

I don't see Bruschi fighting an uphill spot just yet, I'd still rather have him on the field than Alexander.

wow, there were a few people posting here a month or so ago salivating over how much improved Crable, Woods, and Guyton were all going to be in their second year. Now Redd gone and Crable's neck possibly on the block. I agree that it would be premature to cut Crable if they are giving up on him b/c they think he is injury-prone. But if BB and staff think the kid can't play, then you have to trust their judgment.
I would hate to see what looked like a promising pass rusher dropped so soon though. At least Guyton looks okay for now...

Terrence Nunn makes plays in practice and in real game situations so there is no way he gets cut.I have not heard anything about sam aiken at all so he can be cut.It should be Moss,Welker,Galloway,Wes Welker Jr AKA Edelman,and Greg Lewis.

Hi John. I don’t see Tank Williams having enough special teams value to beat out Eric Alexander. I could envision Williams returning to the team during the season in the event of injuries. … LT, Rob and David B, I think it’s a fair point on the Wheatley vs. Crable debate. I see more progress from Wheatley on the practice field than Crable at this point, but is that enough to give up on Crable? Tough one. In terms of keeping Alexander over Crable, I see Alexander with more value to the team in the short-term. But perhaps the long-term thinking with Crable wins out. Good points, all around. Maybe an injury next week clears things up or maybe I am just completely off the mark. … Paul and Josh, I just don’t see Nunn being able to break in through the first six spots. If he gets claimed on waivers, I think that’s a risk the Patriots have to take. Aiken is probably going to be the special teams captain. … MarkJ, I’ll double check on Crable’s practice squad eligibility, but my understanding of the rules is that he is not eligible. I’d like to see Ventrone make it but I see Slater as still having the edge. … Some Guy and Adam, thanks for the thoughts.
--Mike

Ventrone over Slater, hands down. Mike i know you think Slater has the edge over Ventrone, but all Slater has is speed. A lot of the Patriots say the two fastest guys on the team are Slater and Wheatley, and since we're keeping Wheatley for depth with the cornerbacks, why not have him return kicks over Slater? Also, I have been severely dissapointed with the play of Alex Smith and the non-play of Ben Watson. In my mind, one of those two is going to stay but definitely not both. Smith doesn't seem to be understanding the offense at all, but Watson can't get on the field. I give Watson the edge simply because he knows the offense but don't sleep on his trade value (maybe a solid mid-round pick?). Finally, I think Crable's short and oft-injured time in New England has come to and end. How can you cut a hardworking player like Ninkovich or Alexander to make room for a player that can't seem to stay on the field like Crable? I think all of New England had very high hopes for Crable based on his size and potential as a third round pick, but I think it's time to cut our losses and just get rid of him.

It seems to me that you think Alexander is a differencemaker on special teams. I mean why else would you be willing to say a guy who has no prospects of improving and is to be quite frank a liability on defense over last years third round pick?

By no means is Alexander a differencemaker on special teams. He is a nice player to have there, but not at the expense of any player(s) who have upside. Yeah Crable's has dissapointed but you would be kidding yourself if you don't think there is any upside there.

It would be great to see who just misses the cut. Need that to see what the tradeoffs are. Thanks.

Bruschi looked good Thursday night and that was playing in a 4-3 front. The man may have lost a step but he can still make plays and brings valuable leadership. I can't envision a scenario where he gets cut. I know if that were to happen I would be irrate, not becuase of sentimental value, but because of all the x-factors he brings to the team. This will most likely be his last season so I think he makes the roster hands down. Some people will say he is washed up and that is complete ignorance and very disrespectful to the man who fought back from a stroke to fight for this team. He is a good 1st and 2nd down player and will contribute this season.

I think some of the guys that are projected to be cut or in danger (Crable, Morris) could end up on the PUP list. That would protect them from waivers, and then provide depth in week 6 that will no doubt be needed.

I see a lot of "bubble" players being traded. KC, Den are new to the 3-4, plus with Hou needing depth a d-line. I see Wright, McGowan, and Kaczur traded. I also see Lewis being cut or traded as well. So, Tank Williams (can play LB the in the nickle/dime), O'Callaghan, Nunn and Crable (maybe fastest OLB) making the team. I do see Vollmer starting at RT. I could see Bruschi making a "big" announcement, so maybe Lenin makes it as well.

Mike, thank you for your response. How about publishing a list of PS eligible players who are still on 80 men roster?

Steve K:
The only player who can be put on Reserve/PUP is LeVoir. Once a player
has practiced, he is not eligible for PUP. Tate will probably be placed on
Reserve/NFI (non football injury).

Mike, I know this would probably take too much work for little insight, but I am curious if you know of any players that were cut by the Pats under BB that went on to become a decent to good player?

I like Nunn and Hoyer, but this team is built for today and not 3 yrs from now. So we probably give up on them and let them go to a KC etc...

Thanks, Mike. I've been meaning to go through this exercise myself but it's a lot easier cheating off of your list. I do think O'Callaghan stays and that they may keep 9 linemen. Britt, Yates and Connolly have good chances of ending up on other rosters in the days after the final cut. I agree with others and just have seen too many mistakes from Slater to see him being on the final roster. I believe Tank Williams will be there in the end. Mike, do you see Bussey making it through to the practice squad? I'd hate to see a 5th rounder just disappear and there always seems to be a couple of OL on the practice squad.

I agree with Joe Kaz about Bruschi and it's not sentiment either. Well, not entirely

I also agree with Steve K. There will be lots of games with the PUP to keep guys away from waivers for at least another 6 weeks. So much can happen in that time between injuries on the Pats to injuries on other teams that actually may increase trade value of those coming off PUP in week 6. That's why I don't see many trades at this time for the bubble players. There just won't much value for them when the other teams know they (or someone similar) is going to be cut anyway.

I would go with Ventrone over Slater too if I could not keep both. Certainly Slater has the speed but does not seem to be improving as much as he should be by now. We've seen these guys before, the ones with speed, but just don't improve (Bethel Johnson et. al.)

I have to think they keep O'Connell and try to hid Hoyer on the PS.

Jim Keddy said ". Once a player has practiced, he is not eligible for PUP." Is that right? I suppose that makes sense. It's going to make for some extermely tough decisions then... more trades I guess to stockpile more draft picks...

You really want to cut everyone older that you can and keep everyone that's a fringe guy that is likely to get picked up. Bottom line, by the end of the season there's no way the 53-man roster looks the same as it does on day 1 and anyone that's a fringe guy with potential will get picked up by the Chiefs, Broncos or Browns in about two seconds on cutdown day.

Dumping guys like Tank Williams will give us the opportunity to re-sign a guy that knows the system around week 6 when people start getting hurt (how many times did we re-sign/cut Hank Poteat a couple of years ago?)

BB has to find a way to keep BJGE . You just KNOW that Morris,Maroney and Taylor will be injured at some point, plus Denver, KC or some other team would sign him in a heartbeat.

Slater doesn't really impress, Ventrone does

Alexander is expendable......Crable has to get out there and play or he'll be Maroney redux without any good stats.

Mike, Is Paris Lennon stil on the team and are you saying that he wont make it onto the roster? I havnt heard much about him and seems like he had a pretty strong year in Detroit last year.

Sorry to post again on the same subject. There is no game with the PUP.
If a player was not on Active /PUP to start training camp, he is not eligible
for Reserve/ PUP later on. Also, once a player has practiced, he is not
eligible for PUP. Other than LeVoir and Tate, the only option for other
dinged up players is the Injured Reserve list which put players out for
the entire season.

"I see Wright, McGowan, and Kaczur traded. I also see Lewis being cut or traded as well."

Cap savings for cutting/trading these players:

Kaczur: $1.8M saved
McGowan: $200K saved
Lewis: $150K saved
Wright: $1.2M *LOST*

Wright isn't getting traded in 2009.

If Crable is still dinged up at cut down time, the Patriots may simply
put him on Injured Reserve for the second year in a row.

Mike, I think you're wrong on your QB assessment. I think showed enough against the Bengals in terms of pocket presence and decision making that he will not make it to the practice squad.
While it was far from perfect, he showed decent feel for the pressure and seemed to slide move around the pocket pretty well in avoiding the pressure. On two plays in particular, he did a nice job buying time to unload the ball to avoid sacks while not taking grounding penalties. One of those avoided a safety. To me, that is terrific presence for a rookie.

How does Hoyer compare with Matt Cassell at this point in Matt's career? Hoyer got the chance to show his development progress on the field and I believe he showed enough for the Pats to not risk losing him.

I think Andrew Walter is in camp to learn the offense and get a little exposure in it on the field, but ultimately gets cut. He will be first in line in the Pats rolodex should anything happen to Brady.

real quick ....tank williams and ray ventrone in . McGowan and whoever gets placed on IR (bound to happen) out.

Regarding the regular season (6-week) PUP list - as I read it, a player may be placed on this list at any time before the first mandated roster cutdown, It doesn't appear to matter whether or not the player has practiced with the team BEFORE that date, but he cannot practice with the team AFTER that date.

Regarding P/S eligibility - it appears that a player may still be eligible for the P/S as long as he has not been on the 45-man Active roster for more than 8 games and I think Crable may qualify. He was IR'd in Week 10 and, IIRC, was inactive for several of the previous nine games. I mean, I gotta believe that the Pats organization watches the "play clock" countdown on this sorta thing verrrry closely and will oreserve a player's eligibility wherever they can.

Mike, interesting take on Slater making the roster. I guess BB will need to be comfortable that the mistakes will stop. Perhaps Slater will become the next Izzo. I don't agree going with only 8 OL with the only backup tackle (for at least 6 weeks) being a rookie. Could you re-post the tackle numbers on special teams from 08?

I think it is essential the Pats keep Ben Jarvis Green Ellis. There is a high likelihood that Maroney, Morris, and Taylor are going to be injured at some point during this year based on their past injury histories. Despite the fumble, BJGE has me convinced he can be a solid running back in the NFL based even on last year's play. Why do I want the Pats to be a top running team? It's simple-- the Pats defense appears to be a bend but dont break unit this year, and limiting possessions for the opposing team will be the key to a Super Bowl run--that's why running the football will be crucial to the Pats this year, more so than the aerial attack which doesn't need to put up the sexy statistics from 2007. I hope the Pats main focus in practice and film room discussions are how to improve the run blocking, and rushing the passer. If those weaknesses can become strengths by midseason, I'll be a very happy camper

I agree, Nunn would not clear waivers. Keep him and waive Galloway or Aiken, preferably Galloway.
Cut slater and keep williams. Slater has speed, but he can never seem to get out of his own way; he has terrible hands. They are very thin at linebacker and Williams can play the small backer/in-the-box safety role. Keeping Williams would also allow them to get away with keeping just 4 safeties.
Right now Kazur/O'Callahan is a coin flip.
They need to deal for another backer. I have no faith in Woods or Alexander

If Morris is injured and lands on the PUP, I think his roster spot is temporarily filled by a bubble player from another unit, rather than the recently acquired Chirs Taylor.

If Watson ends up on the PUP, I think maybe DeVree sticks (temporarily) instead of Alex Smith.

I frankly think Galloway is still on the bubble, perhaps this year's John Lynch. His replacement would be Ventrone ("V for Versatility!") rather than Nunn, who goes to the P/S to work on his "flag magent" downfield-blocking technique.

I also think that Alexander is still on the bubble, being pushed really hard by Ninkovich. I'm still not entirely convinced that Bruschi doesn't retire, but he's easily ahead of Lenon and Tank Williams (though Lenon could end up on the PUP). If Crable's problem stems from lack of practice time (rather than injury), then it's obviously better that he go to the P/S (if we can get him there) than the PUP. If he stays for the 53-man, the Ninkovich-Alexander thing becomes moot (unless Bruschi retires).

I'm having difficulty seeing us keeping ten guys for the secondary and only 8 for the O-line (not counting LeVoir on the PUP), especially when two of the three reserves would be rookies. Vollmer seems an obvious keeper, but he and LeVoir are tackles, leaving only Hochstein and Ohrnberger to backup two guards and the center. IIRC, Hochstein is no great shakes as a center and Ohrberger is a rookie. Seems to me like we might keep Wendell, maybe? In any event, if we keep another O-line reserve, that probably cuts Slater (as much as I'd hate to see him go).

If Galloway doesn't show something soon, I'd keep Nunn and cut Galloway. They need youth, speed, versatility and productivity. Nunn's cheaper to keep than Galloway as well.

I'd keep Crable and transition Bruschi to coaching. Bruschi is done, they just need him to realize as much. If Crable continues to do nothing, cut him or trade him for a draft pick.

Ventrone has value, find a way to keep him.

Back to the PUP rules:

Maybe it's just me, but I haven't been able to find anything official regarding roster rules on nfl.com. But I did find an article by a Houston sports writer who says that, in order for a player to be put on the regular season Reserve/PUP list, he must have begun training camp on the Active/PUP list and never come off of it. If that's the case, then LeVoir is the only guy eligible for Reserve/PUP.

Will all of the 8 Offensive lineman be on the playing roster or will any be on the practice squad?

@ john b --

I'm not sure I agree entirely with comparing Slater to Bethel Johnson or with Chad Jackson (another "speedster" who failed). IIRC, Bethel's problem was lack of work ethic - not an issue with Slater, from what I hear. Chad Jackson's problem was that he couldn't find the correct route if his helmet was equipped with OnStar.

Slater's problem, it seems to me, might be "trying too hard"/impatience/anxiousness, lapses in discipline and focus. I don't think it's his hands that are the problem with the muffed kicks, it's his eyes - he looks up too soon (what golfer can't appreciate THAT bad habit?), trying to get a jump on the runback. It may be that Slater has stuck around because BB feels it's a correctable problem and that Slater is making progress.

On the one hand, BB kept both Johnson and Jackson around longer (I think) than Slater's been here so far trying to "fix" THEM. On the other hand, maybe BB didn't have to cut anyone of greater apparent value to the team in order to keep those two during their time. Might be different this time around. Next week's game against the Skins might well be Slater's last chance. He's probably gonna have to break one or two for really good gains and/or a TD, and probably have to make a spectacular open field tackle in return coverage. No pressure, though.

Nice job Mike. Although I tend to think Ventrone makes the 53 over Slater, as the Patriots already have a few return guys. I would be very surprised if Crable is cut before having a chance to prove himself in a regular season game. Crable to me makes the squad before the 5th running back Morris (who I have being cut in my prediction)

Keeping Nunn over Galloway I agree is a good move, however the cap hit for Galloway would not allow that to happen. I think Bruschi should retire he is DONE. He will always be remembered as one of the clutch LB's to play the game, but his time has come and gone. I think O'Connell could be a suprise cut... One of those oh shi.... beware it could happen to you. Did anyone think Lawer Malloy was going to get cut!! As far as wheatley he's looked lost these two preseason games, terrible angles and just poor tackling - watchout he could be cut as well. Either way I'm excited for the season it should be fun to watch

Where is AD Thomas's name? I did not see it with either the D line or Linebackers.

SUBMITTAL NO. 2
Sorry for the above. I see AD's name with the Linebackers

Alexandre is not a sub if a linebacker goes down. Crable isnt working well. Nunn can play-keep him.Same with Ninkovich if he has another good game.Hope Brusghi retires and spot is freed up.Ventrone if cut will be with another team.Hope he can stay.

Can someone tell me what the story with WR Brandon Tate the 3rd round pick from UNC is? I don't see him mentioned anywhere.

If we put Maroney on the practice squad, does that accelerate his signing bonus?

Mike, I really enjoy your work, but please explain how Eric Alexander beats out TBC as a line backer? Tully has made solid contiribution on special teams, and has been the one backer who has put pressure on the QB consistently. I assume Tate starts the year on the PUP list? I also do not like the idea of going with out 68 on the o-line. Some tough decisions for BB and the crew. Sadly, I do think you hit the nail on the head with all of our beloved long term LB, 54. Great problem to have, but this is another reason BB gets paid the big bucks!

Please talk about the offensive line. They were horrific against Cinnci

Brandon Tate is already on IR

Mike,
Has Edelman taken any snaps under center during practices this preseason? Any chance that the Pats gain a roster spot with Edelman as the third string QB, or is it too much to ask a rookie learning a new position to also pick what would be essential for a third string QB to know? At the very least, I can see his running abilities a plus in a wildcat type formation, considering it hurt the Pats so much last year.

@GO PATS, Brandon Tate tore his MCL before the draft and will probably start the season on injured reserve, so he doesn't count toward the 53.

@Justin, Maroney is not eligible for the practice squad as he is a multi-year veteran.

I just want to observe how many of us are making the case to keep a young talent (Nunn, Ventrone, Alexander, Ninkovich...) over a veteran player (Galloway, Bruschi) and think back to how panicked we were when Vrabel was traded. Apparently The Hood's evaluation of our young players was pretty darn good.

Agree completely with others about the value of BJGE. Too many of the other RBs have shown themselves to be injury-prone.

@ jojo --

Actually, TATE is not on IR. He's on the Non-Football Injury/PUP list. In order to put a player on IR before the first mandatory roster cutdown date (Sep 1st this year, IIRC), he must pass through waivers first. Another team could then claim him (which JAX just did to a Cleveland draft pick who the Browns were trying to slide through to IR to free up a camp roster spot).

The "Non-Football" is justified because his injury did not occur during NFL activities (happened before he was even drafted). The fact that he's on the pre-season PUP means that he COULD be placed on the regular season Reserve/PUP list and be available, at least to practice with the team, after Week 6. By Week 9, the team must decide whether to promote him to the active roster (requiring that they cut someone to make room for him) or place him on IR.

Week 6 (Oct 18) will be just about a year after TATE's surgery. IIRC, at the start of camp, the word was that he was about 85% recovered. Week 9 is over 3 months beyond the start of camp. So, if he's been working out and, by Week 6, is healthy enough to practice, AND can make good progress picking things up in the three weeks before Week 9 (same length of time as camp), it's not completely out of the question that TATE could be on the active roster and contributing for the last seven weeks of the regular season - THIS season.

Ventrone should stay, no question over Slater. He's always in the right place, contributes when given the opportunity and provides depth in all 3 facets of the game (ala a young Troy Brown) We can all remember Slater's one kickoff return last year which doomed the Pit game. End of the day, the Pats aren't about the skills as much as they are about intangibles and team; Ventrone provides those qualities.
I fear Bruschi's retirement as well, but if he wants to play, we owe our heart and soul one more season. He's not a liability and we should fight as hard for him as he fought to come back for us.

I'd hate to give up on or loose Ventrone, Crable, T. Williams, Ben Jarvis Green Ellis...! Boy, the Patriots have some tough decisions to make. They ARE stacked. Expand the roster and the salary cap NFL! Nice job keeping us grounded Mike.

I think there will be 1 or 2 players currently not on the roster making the team, too, Kevin Carter, Vonnie Holliday, etc. With KC, Denver and Cleveland all looking for Bill's castoffs, I think a few "injuries" will occur in the next couple of weeks.

Mike,

Would you consider Thomas in the DE/OLB role? I would love to see the guy take a 3 point stance this year, but I haven't heard about it in practice or at games.

Where is PARIS LENNON, anybody answer that one?????????????

Goodbye Slater, Wheatley, Crable, and Alexander. Crable is the biggest bust since Chad Johnson, Lawrence Muroney, and the entier 2006 and 2007 draft. Ok just kidding. He's just a total bust.

You gotta keep Ben Jarvus, NO DOUBT!

Cynic! But, Crabel rhymes with Vrabel! If he doesn't get healthy, you might be right. Didn't Chad do very well in special teams? Did Chad leave for greener pastures or get cut. BJG dropped one freak'n ball, so what? I agree, he stays or we all walk! LOL!

I meant to say Chad Jackson but got mixed up with Bethel Johnson.

All the best.

BigPapa66 - It's not in the players best interest to get "injured" unless they really really do not want to go to KC, Denver and Cleveland where they will most likely have a greater opportunity to play.

Hey, Mike, I'm curious, when you say "the option to keep 4 tight ends is eliminated," is that just in terms of your projection, or is there really a reason to believe the Pats won't aren't planning on keeping more than 3 TE's?

Without a true FB on the roster, TE depth seems even more important than in previous years, when we've carried 4 TE's. With only 3 players who can play a TE/FB/H-Back type of role, if one gets hurt during a game, our options when it comes to jumbo packages become very limited.

Meanwhile, keeping Green-Ellis in addition to Maroney, Faulk, Taylor and Morris seems to me like too much of a sentimental luxury. I understand you want to reward the young, unheralded guys who show a good motor in pre-season, but honestly, what kind of contribution do you see Green-Ellis making in game situations, other than mop-up carries late in games with big leads? In what kind of key situation do you see BB wanting Green-Ellis on the field over Maroney, Morris, Faulk, or Taylor?

this one looks much more reasonable Mike. Nice work. knocking out Smith since he's a duplicate of Watson makes sense. do you see other positions where the skill sets of certain players might be redundant? i'm thinking maybe BJGE and Morris, Slater and Ventrone, or Burgess and Banta-Cain. having redundancy (outside of linemen) seems to be contradictory to BB's preference for versatility in his roster.

keep up the good work!