Projecting the 53, Part IV

In the future, I think we'd regret letting Nunn go.

Mike, Great work but I'm confused. You mentioned that Slater's injury opens up a spot for McGowan but you said the same thing about O'Callaghan. It seems like you added two guys for Slater's injury. I can't find Projecting the 53 Part III so I'm not sure who else was ousted from the last projection. Thanks for the insight.

This team needs a LOT of help. I think it is going to be a long season for us Pats fans. Putting aside the home fan yahoo stuff and let’s be honest here. My break down.

QB: No legit backup and fragile starter, not good.
RB: No legit starter, No Fullback, lots of old guys, ouch.
TE: No good blocking or fullback type. Watson and Smith are a bust.
WR: Looks OK, but one key injury could change that, No legit number 3.
OL: TBD, cannot seem to run block, but that could be RB’s

DLine: Looks great, but you can’t play 7 starters.
Hybrid LB: Not sure what that is, but B-C looks good, Burgess, not so much.
LB: Lots and Lots of problems here, not a one can cover TE/WR, and this is a passing league. Really bad.
CB: Could be one of the worst groups in the league! I haven’t seen 1 legit starter in this group, never mind a shut down CB.
Safey: 0 depth, again not sure if there is a legit starter in the group.
Specialists: Who cares, but there not as good as years past.

Take away the rose colored glasses and look at some of the other teams in this conference and it is not to hard to see this team struggling to make the playoff, never mind the Superbowl

This team needs a LOT of help. I think it is going to be a long season for us Pats fans. Putting aside the home fan yahoo stuff and let’s be honest here. My break down.

QB: No legit backup and fragile starter, not good.
RB: No legit starter, No Fullback, lots of old guys, ouch.
TE: No good blocking or fullback type. Watson and Smith are a bust.
WR: Looks OK, but one key injury could change that, No legit number 3.
OL: TBD, cannot seem to run block, but that could be RB’s

DLine: Looks great, but you can’t play 7 starters.
Hybrid LB: Not sure what that is, but B-C looks good, Burgess, not so much.
LB: Lots and Lots of problems here, not a one can cover TE/WR, and this is a passing league. Really bad.
CB: Could be one of the worst groups in the league! I haven’t seen 1 legit starter in this group, never mind a shut down CB.
Safey: 0 depth, again not sure if there is a legit starter in the group.
Specialists: Who cares, but there not as good as years past.

Take away the rose colored glasses and look at some of the other teams in this conference and it is not to hard to see this team struggling to make the playoff, never mind the Superbowl

Hoyer to practice squad
Extra spot goes to Alex Smith or AJ Feely

Slater has not been an impact player, but still has been assigned an important role in this team. Now that we lost Slater, secondary and kick coverage teams look too thin to me in this 53. My preference would be to have keep Nunn over O’Callaghan. Trade possibilities are that Pats may pick up S/CB and keep Nunn in PS.

I think Watson and Crable's jobs are in serious jeapordy. Could be to keep Nunn and Williams as I also think the Pats will be mainly a 4-3 team with such a deap D-Line this year.

I'd go with Nunn at WR and either Lewis or Galloway getting cut. Probably Galloway since Lewis contributes more on Special Teams.

Mike, Practice Squad List? How bad was Slater Hurt?

keep an eye on the cut lists coming soon for another good special teams guy who can also serve as a backup elsewhere... don't worry so much about Slater.

Ricomandog is on something!!!

Slater was an impact player on this team. He had 18 special teams tackles last year! And he had three in one game this preseason already!

Losing Slater is going to be a big loss for our coverage teams.
(please don't undersell the importance of good kick coverage)

Those rose colored glassed must be big sellers according to Las Vegas as well as analysis from around the country. The starters have played about four quarters and some not at all. Remember Moss sitting it out two years ago. What a bum he turned out to be !

Ricomandog is the one wearing rose colored glasses. Try smoking some reality instead of that other crap that you're smoking and then take off the glasses. Mabe by week 16 your head will have cleared out and you will then see what the rest of us are looking at.
Go Pats!

QB is not fragile; He played every game before getting hurt last yr; all of a sudden he is fragile; silly
Same running backs allowed the Pats to be in the top 5 rushing last year even though some missed considerable time due to injuries
OL gave up the least amount of penalties while allow Tom enough time to throw for 50 TD
DL in the top 3 in the league
MLB in the top 5 in the AFC if not the league
Special team in the top 10 in the league
Coach the best in the league
WR in the top 5 in the league
Seems to me we spend too much time finding all the things that are wrong and not enough time looking at the things that we have going for us
How many teams in the NFL excel in so many different areas?

Mike, after Hoyer's performance I don't see a Feely trade happening.

How about Green-Ellis and Alex Smith traded for another pass rusher? Seems to make a heck of a lot sense especially for any team that is trying to add weapons to their offense. I have no idea where they would come from but that seems like a deal that could garner more than a little interest from a Josh McDaniels type.

I like Hoyer, he really impressed in the Cincy game. He's a player.

I've said it a zillion times Linebacker is Weak, one injury and oh my god.

Don't know why they didn't go after more LBs, not sure what Crable is but he is not a player.

Not worried about the offense

Ricomandog,

You are joking right!???

Hey Mike,
Are the following guys practice squad eligible?
Rogers, C Taylor, Connolly, Ninkovich, & Williams?
I'm guessing Ortiz, Adams, Wendell, Crable and Wheatly are...
Thanks & I'm looking forward to espnboston.com going live.

In general I'm struggling with what to make of the preseason. There are obvious things to be excited about (i.e. Brady seeming like Brady again - barring shoulder soreness), but they feel very singular and isolated. Between the different looks of both sides of the ball and personnel groupings I can't quite see the big picture yet.

I'm sure the cuts that are going to begin over the next few days will offer a better suggestion. Still, things look different on the field than they do on paper.

Mike,

I do not know if you saw the half-time tv interview with BB, but when the interviewer mentioned guys fighting for jobs ie Lewis and McGowan, BB specifically said that they were not fighting for jobs. Which is right in line with your prediction. Looks good.

Too bad for Slater, the kid needs to learn how to play with more control. I do have to agree with Joe that he made quite an impact on our coverage team. What would it take to keep Terrence Nunn? He has opened my eyes since I first saw him making some impressive catches during training camp .

One potential trade partner has emerged as the Saints lost another TE for the season. Its possible the #4 TE (either Watson or Smith) could be destined for New Orleans in the very near future...

My only real concern is the play of the defensive backs. It's a major concern because the skill and technique that I've seen from the DBs has nothing to do with using a "vanilla" game plan. On certain plays (i.e. getting beat on the long ball again, or blatant pass interference), the DBs looked even worse than what the Team has fielded over the last few years, if that's possible. I'm starting to think some of the blame should be laid on the shoulders of Dean Pees (or the DBs Coach, if there is one). Something is really amiss here. Another thought I had is that, based on what we've seen over the last few years, and the preseason, the Pats should start to consider upping the value ($) when it comes to acquiring and/or retaining good cornerbacks and safeties.

Yeah, Ricomandog must be a Jets fan. This team looks VERY good, especially when considering that the Patriots could still make a move for Deion Branch and AJ Feeley. I say keen Nunn, and cut Morris. BJGE seems more than capable to fill in for what Morris gave the team last year, and besides, he is a lot younger. I would also like to find a way to keep Ninkovich (I think?). The guy seems like almost like a Vrabel understudy, and he can play Long Snapper too I hear.If the team picks up Branch, I would cut Galloway, he is taking way too long for a guy his age.

I'm starting to think $9 Million per season isn't too much for a great lockdown corner.

Ricomandog - the fountain of wisdom here to educate us, lol. Nice try troll.

The main thing the Pats lack is a consistant pash rush. Teams have beern able to throw all day long against the Pats. We like to come down hard on the secondary but nobody can cover forever. We have no Freeney, Ware, Peppers type of players. Also the vanilla d-fence we have been calling the last 3 years has killed us. Where are the complicated blitz packages? Thank-god our offence is all world or this team could be sub 500. Time to look straight at the D-fence play calling and the coaching. Take a freakin chance. I would rather get burnt the odd time than have teams consistantly march down the field.

I always wonder who might be the "surprise" cut - a contributing veteran or relatively high draft pick. But now I think there won't be any significant surprises this year, largely because the "surprise cuts" have already occurred in the form of the Vrabel trade and Bruschi retirement.

(BB learned from his poor handling of Lawyer Milloy's cut.
Better for all concerned not to wait to end of camp with veteran leaders.)

O'Connel falls in the category of higher draft pick surprise cut.

Does anyone else predict a "I didn't see that coming" at the level of a Sammy Morris (injuries)? Jarvis Green (cap hit, DL depth)?

I fear that Bill Belichick is REALLY going to regret including Mike Vrabel in the Matt Cassel deal this season. With the retirement of Rodney Harrison and now Tedy Bruschi there is NO VETERAN LEADERSHIP on LB or CB, let alone that NONE of the young LBs/CBs (outside of maybe Banta-Cain) have shown much promise in the pass rush or preventing the big pass play. I hate to say it, but as hard as it is to believe the Pat's defense may be EVEN WORSE THAN LAST SEASON when it was near the bottom of the league. Expect teams to have little trouble moving the chains against the Pats this year, and have NO TROUBLE WHATSOEVER converting 3rd and 16. Expect plenty of big yardage ESPN highlight reel pass plays against our secondary. Expect a defense ranked NO HIGHER THAN 30 when all is said and done.

Of course, as long as Tom Brady stays healthy and puts up 35 points per game it may not matter. Brian Hoyer looks like he may be VERY CAPABLE of backing Brady up as well should something go wrong. The only problem is that the Pats may need 35 points per game this season. Expect a lot of 38-28 games, much like the Colts had around 2003-2005 before their defense matured (when Peyton Manning put up big numbers during the regular season before falling in the playoffs) .

Do no expect this defense to play at a championship caliber right out of the gate. I think they will get there but it is going to take time. I suspect that we are going to see the level of play raised about week 6 or 7 and than really hit their stride around week 10.

There are just too many new faces, people and roles. It is going to take quite some time to gel. But you have to be excited about it. Just look at the sheer number of physical players they have on that defense. That is a good indication for what type of defense they will be once they start to mesh.

Eventually, it is going to be a fast and physical defense. Just don't expect it right out of the gate.

Posted by ricomandog

Your break down has the mentality of a child.

Posted by ricomandog

Your break down has the mentality of a child.

I’m not jumping off the Galloway band wagon just yet. Chemistry or not he is still a threat providing his speed is still there. Look at this from the DC’s perspective. Moss, Galloway, Welker and Baker. Who are you going to cover? Moss and Galloway will take three DB’s with them every play. That opens up the middle for Welker and Baker. When those two make half a dozen catches over the middle the defense will cheat off Galloway to help out and eventually Galloway will be 8 yards behind his man and you don’t need much chemistry to make that pitch and catch.

Yes, conpatsfan - where are the "complicated blitz packages?" I sometimes long for the return of madman Al Groh, too.

But in today's game "getting burnt the odd time" is not an acceptable option for a team bent on returning to the SB. 7 points is still a lot even with a high powered offense. Most NFL coaches believe every down is an opportunity for your D to make a play or their O to make a mistake. It all stems from coaching rule #1: don't beat yourself.

I hope they get rid of Watson . He has not been worthy of a 1 st round pick and the salary that goes with it. The only good play he has made was when he chased down Chump Bailey in the debacle in Denver that cost us a sure 3 peat. Do not cry for him because some team will pick him up. Maybe they can get a 5th or 6th for him for what his value really was in 2004. I hope they lock up Gastowski and stop playing games with him. Wilfork is replaceable but a sure fire kicker is hard to replace

@ joe (#31)

i agree completely. a lot of 38 - 28 type games to start the season. but as the weather gets colder the d will pick it up. they need time to gel. bb always says the season starts post-thanksgiving. prior to that it's all about positioning yourself for the post-turkey day run. and that is usually when the d starts to perform at their best. those 38 - 28 games become 24 - 14 games (because other teams' d improve over the year too). if healthy i expect BIG things from this team. 13 - 3 or 14 -2 and a 1rst round bye. and hopefully another lombardi trophy.

Nunn looked like he has some ability but i just don't know if we have the room for him. i am worried, though, that we keep galloway around simply cuz he's a vet (and an accomplished one at that) but he turns out never truly adjusting to our system like we'd hope him to.

Agree with most of your 53, but think some cuts will be based on who gets Pats a draft choice rather than on just who is better player. Competition for last spots is very tight and Pats cuts are, for most part, better than depth of may teams, many of which would rather give up a low draft choice than wait for player to get past Detroit, etc, on waiver wire.
Hoyer made statement to be #2 QB. From limited exposure to date, not impressed by Walter learning Pats schemes.
BJGE moves up to starter at RB. Note reaction by BB on 1-yard TD with two Giants on his back. Taylor not with schemes "yet". Maroney stays but will be used more in situations as he can catch the ball and is very dangerous in open field.
Whoever get's Pats best deal or even both Watson and Smith go. Pats may carry only 2 TE's and keep extra WR... Nunn... unless they can dump Galloway for a draft choice. Nunn won't make it through waivers to PS.
At WR, Nunn and Aiken made a statement. Galloway made his earlier.. that he cannot learn Pats schemes or be on same page as Brady. Brady changes or Galloway changes... ya sure.
Haven't seen enough of ... Vollmer, Ohrnberger, Wendell, O’Callaghan... but whichever gets best trade goes.
Not particularly inpressed with Woods, Alexander or Crable, but Woods and Alexander may have spots from play on special teams. Crable stays only because he was a draft choice but goes for the right trade.
Not impressed by any of the DB's eespecially Chung considering his high draft. Look for Pats to make a pick-up using either one of their cuts or low draft choice for a nearing- end of career veteran like Harison who gave us more than expected.
D-Line is overrated as a critical cogs in a 3-4, but in a 4-3 can be very effective. Looking for Pats to go that direction with perhaps fewer LB's.
Go Pats!!

Mike,
I would expect the Patriots will have a spot or two open to sign players (and not guarantee a salary) -- so, they won't keep 53 on Saturday. Who do you think they take a chance on cutting and possible signing back if no one better becomes available? I could see Alexander and/or Morris getting the mildly surprising cut and maybe returning.

OK! So I went a little overboard! The bottom line is that they need to find a running game or Brady is going to get killed. And lets not forget this is NE and you better have a running game in December, Brady or no Brady.

As far as the Defense, like I said, I think they have the deepest D-Line in football, but if they can’t find someone to cover the other teams WRs and TEs they are still going to give up lots of point.

I’m not saying they are a .500 ball club, but I think it is going to take 11 wins again this year to win the division and/or make the playoffs.

Devil's Advocate---- How do you figure the Pat's D near the bottom of the league last year? Was it the 19.3 pts allowed per game which was 8th best in the league? Or the 309 yds/gm allowed which was 10th best in the league? Try to remember that the NFL has 32 teams not 10 like your fantasy league.

hey ricomandog you make Gick look like a rhodes scholar!! You might be right about all the Pats issues(which you aren't) but NEVER forget we have the best coach and best QB in all of football!!! You must be a JETS fan, you dink!

Any players the Pats cut will be claimed by the Broncos, Browns, Chiefs, Jets, Phins to mention a few. There should be no doubt anymore that BB is the architect of their 2000's success w/a helping hand of course from SP but BB called the shots when it came to drafting and FA acquisitiions. As for leadership, w/BB you either lead, follow or get out-of-the-way. He instills leadership in his players and the non-conformists to the Pats winning philosophy and the malcontents are quickly shown-the-door. Sure they'll miss the leadership of Vrabel, Bruschi and Harrison but others will step fwd and fill-the-void. 14-2 in the regular season and SB champs once again. Can't wait for the season to start.

Hey Rico,

We literarily have no competion in the AFC east.

Miami: If the WC is stopped, they are stopped.
Jets: Sanchez can play well agianst the back-ups but when the starters are on the field he looks like a school girl.
Bills: T.O. makes them better, but Trent Edwards isn't a top 15 QB yet.

QB: If Brady gets injured I doubt we would make the playoffs anyway so stop worrying about the back-up.
RBs: You don't need a feature back in the NFL; you just need some guys that can move the chain.
WRs: Brady has won with the likes of Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel as the number one and two WRs, if you're worried about him winning with this group of WRs, regardless if any of them get hurt, you must be a '07 fan.
TEs: The blemish on Watson's career has never been his blocking ability, it has always been a durability and catching issue. He can run and pass block quite well.
OL: Everyone always wants to pick on the OL but they forget how great they were in the '07 season. If the Pats won SB 42 I doubt the OL would have doubts.
DL: Atleast you're not completely brain dead.
Hybrids: Banta-Cain plays well in the red, white, blue, and silver. When Burgess gets up to speed with the defense he will be a good pass rusher.
LBs: Mayo, Guyton, and Adalius are probably as good a LBing corps as you can find in the league. They all run a 40 yard dash in less than 4.56 and all tackle well.
CBs: We never saw the projected starting 5 CBs in the preseason. Springs only played in Cincy, and in the 3rd game, Butler got injured, and Wheatly suffered one too. We saw what the other CBs can do on the field agianst the Giants starters last night and they aren't very good. I'll wait to see the final product of this group before I pass judgement on them.
Safeties: I only have two words for anyone who doubts this group, Brandon Merriweather. This kid is going to be really good in the league. The guy is NE's Polamalu.

Ricomandog, I think you're being unreasonably negative. Here's where I disagree...

QB: Walter should be an adequate backup. Hopefully he won't be needed.
RB: No legit starter, but plenty of good players. The FB position is dead in the NFL. I won't lose sleep over it.
TE: You're right, no stars here, but Baker is a good blocker and decent receiver.
WR: I agree that the #3 spot is weak. But it has been for 4 years. Gaffney was not very good.
OL: Possibly the best and deepest group Belichick's ever coached.

LB: What do you mean not one can cover a TE? Name a faster group of linebackers than Mayo/Guyton/Thomas.
CB: Springs and Bodden are both legit starters. They've been starters for years. Wilhite has shown flashes -- very athletic and seems to be growing into the position. Don't know what to make of Butler yet, but Wheatley appears to be headed for the bust category.
Safey: No depth? Chung = depth.
Specialists: Are you pining for the days of Ken Walter and his 25 yard punts?

Billw, Watson's salary is very low. If you want to cut a TE to save cap space, the only candidate is Alex Smith. Cutting Baker actually costs money, and Thomas/Watson cost about the same as a vet minimum replacement.

Posted by mikeinNH "Yes, conpatsfan - where are the "complicated blitz packages?"

It was the pre-season. You don't give away schemes in the pre-season. I would guess you will see a lot more aggressive play calling next week. With a 3-1 record it proved to me our vanilla was better than the other teams vanilla.

@ greg_hawgood --

IDK if I'm even THAT pessimistic, given our early schedule and the number of opposing offenses that seem likely to become one-dimensional and mediocre if we can stop their ground game.

Out of the seven games before the BYE, I don't see BUF, DEN or TB hanging anywhere near as many as 28 points on this defense, even with the way we've played in pre-season, as long as we can control their ground games. Doubtful even for the Jets (WK-2, as long as we can control Leon Washington) and TEN (WK-6, if we can stop "Slash-and-Dash"), though their defenses may keep our offensive production down a bit. ATL (WK-3), may be close, but we can out score them (if we can control Turner) because their defense isn't all that. BAL (WK-4) is a concern - they can move the ball and score running (with three different guys) or passing AND their defense can give our offense a real challenge.

I'd guess this defense holds opponents to an average of 15 points or fewer through the BYE (returns by Leon Washington excluded).

clark #38
Of course/zero scheming on both sides of the ball in preseason. My point was more to do that canpatsfan's feeling that the lack of consistent pass rush could be solved by rolling the dice and blitzing more.

But that runs entirely counter to BB philosophy: better to give up first downs than a TD. We're all sick of watching that last year, but until the coverage improves, we're not going to see them blitz as much as we'd like - maybe even WITH regular season scheming.

Just hope joe, et al are right and the D gels in the first half of the season.

The Law Firm must stay!! He's a young Morris and I think could carry the load towards the end of the season with some older legs ahead of him.

I don't think they'll stick with two QB's...Hoyer has 0 experience in the NFL and preseason football against the reserve Giants D doesn't qualify him for anything..never mind a number two spot behind a gimpy knee.

A TE and Morris to Eagles for Feeley (sounds steep, but I don't think Morris makes the team) they historically need help at CB and Safety down the stretch, extra spot goes there.

Ricomandog is a Squeelers fan trying to pass himself and a Pats fan. Nice try, rico. But you exposed your self when you said Brady was fragile.

Here's my list of folks coming off the active roster (cut/IR):
- Jamar Love
- Herana Daze-Jones
- Titus Adams
- Darryl Richards
- Ryan Wendell (keep George Bussey instead)
- Eric Alexander (keep Paris Lenon instead)
- Rob Ninkovich
- Chris Taylor
- Ray Ventrone
- Wesley Britt
- Alex Smith
- Joey Galloway (keep Terrance Nunn instead)
- Matthew Slater (IR; keep O'Callaghan instead)

Followed by upgrades acquired from others teams to replace:
- Shawn Springs (find a different CB from cuts)
- Laurence Maroney (find a different RB from cuts)
- Shawn Crable (find a different LB from cuts)