Qualified success stories

A little late in keeping his promise, Atlanta general manager Don Waddell finally will see his Thrashers make their Stanley Cup debut tomorrow night when they take on the New York Rangers in Round 1 of the playoffs.

Waddell had a premonition last season that this would happen but proved to be 12 months ahead of the curve when Atlanta missed the cut with losses on the final weekend to Washington and Florida. Seven regular seasons gone by, and one bold promise a fading memory, Hotlantans finally get to experience for themselves what their neighbors in North Carolina and Tampa have been raving about the last couple of seasons.

Officially, the Cup puck drops tonight, with four best-of-seven matches starting, most of them in the Western Conference. Had the Bruins chiseled their way into the final (No. 8) seed in the Eastern Conference, they would be taking on the mighty Sabres, who finished with the Presidents' Trophy for the league's best regular-season mark (earning a league-high 53 wins).

By the way, note to the NHL: a tiny detail for sure, but there hasn't been a league president since Gil Stein's departure in 1993; maybe it's time to make it the Commish's Cup, or the Bettman Bowl?

While the hand-wringing and high angst continue here in the Hub of Hockey, where the local NHL entry hasn't worked well into April since the spring of 2004, and there hasn't been a real playoff run since 1992, it's of some solace that 13 other clubs are on the sidelines. It's that way every spring, of course, and will remain so until the league expands the playoff pool, a point of much speculation when the 2004-05 lockout ended.

Rumor had it, post-lockout, that 20 teams would qualify, with seeds 7-10 in each conference squaring off in a best-of-five play-in. But the initiative was tabled, and for now we are left with the NHL's own sweet, and enduring, 16.

For all the grief the NHL has taken through the years, much of it focused on the "outrageousness" of 16 teams qualifying for the postseason (something the NBA soon duplicated, without the outrage, by the way), this season perhaps once and for all should quiet the claims of how easy it is to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Consider: Of the 16 teams to qualify this season, only eight have made the cut at least three years in a row. Only one Original Six club -- Detroit, which hasn't missed since 1990 -- is included in that list. So of 30 NHL teams, 22 have been unable to string together more than two Cup-qualifying seasons. Contrary to what so many of us believe, it ain't easy. Just ask Don Waddell.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Buffalo (1) vs. NY Islanders (8)

So much for management stability and organizational planning being key to a Cup run. The Islanders put the swift boot to new general manager Neil Smith in the preseason, called backup goalie Garth Snow off the end of the bench and handed him the keys to the front office. Voila, they're back in the playoffs. The Sabres should make it a short stay for the distant sons of Bryan Trottier and Billy Smith. Lindy Ruff and his Western New Yorkers posted the league's best regular-season record, assembling four lines with precision, speed, and ferocity. The Sabres' keys up front: Daniel Briere and former BU Terrier Chris Drury, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents July 1. The Islanders survived a one-and-done Sunday against the Devils, advancing to the postseason with a shootout win. Minor league goalie Wade Dubielewicz, filling in for the twice-concussed Rick DiPietro, saved the day with a couple of impressive poke-checks on New Jersey shooters. Snow pulled the coup of the Feb. 27 trade deadline, acquiring spiritual leader Ryan Smyth from the Oilers. Smyth chipped in 5 goals and 15 points over the last 18 games, essentially becoming the one-man lighthouse for a club desperate for on-ice guidance. Without him, the Oilers went a moribund 2-16-1. Sabres netminder Ryan Miller, sensational again this season, doesn't have Martin Biron (flipped to Philadelphia at the trade deadline) as his safety net. Chances are his backup this time, ex-UNH Wildcat Ty Conklin, won't get off the end of the bench -- perhaps prime position for a management gig?
PREDICTION: Sabres in 5.

New Jersey (2) vs. Tampa Bay (7)

At last word, Lou Lamoriello remained behind the Devils bench, but check boston.com hourly for updates. You just never know about Lamoriello, who turfed coach Claude Julien with only nine periods to go in the regular season. Of course, he did much the same to Robbie Ftorek in 2000, and watched Larry Robinson lead the Devils to their second Cup. For all their defensive discipline and Hall of Fame netminding from Martin Brodeur, the Devils don't do a lot with the puck. In fact, of the 16 teams in the playoffs, none potted fewer goals (216) than the Devils, which is part of the reason Julien got the heave-ho. The Lightning had career years from two of their Big Three, Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis, both of whom cracked 100 points for the first time. Cousin Vinny led the league with 52 goals, and 11 of St. Louis's 102 points came shorthanded, also a league high. The grossly overpaid Brad Richards, the least productive of the Big Three, turned in a pedestrian season, which could put him in redemption mode now -- or so the Bolts hope. Once beyond Lecavalier and St. Louis, the Tampa offense becomes, well, Devil-like. Look for New Jersey attack dogs John Madden, Jim Dowd, and Jay Pandolfo to bark loudest whenever Tampa coach John Tortorella unleashes Lecavalier and St. Louis. Brodeur -- the pick here as the Hart (MVP) winner -- could pocket this series by himself, even if the Lightning are allowed to play both Marc Denis and Johan Holmqvist in net.
PREDICTION: Devils in 6.

Atlanta (3) vs. NY Rangers (6)

Inconsistent and spotty much of the way, the Blueshirts needed until the final weekend to clinch a playoff berth. But their sizzling play after the trade deadline -- 13-3-4 -- makes them perhaps the most dangerous lower seed in either conference. Both sides here made vital late pickups. The Thrashers, in the postseason for the first time in franchise history, brought some badly needed spice to the back line with the acquisition of Alexei Zhitnik from Philadelphia, then added strength and pop up front by importing Keith Tkachuk from St. Louis. The Rangers ditched Aaron Ward to Boston for Paul Mara, adding youth and mobility along the blue line, but their boldest (read: craziest?) move brought in vile-tongued Sean Avery from the Kings. Avery, ego kept in check by veteran Brendan Shanahan, totaled 20 points over 29 games with New York and was plus-11. He enters the postseason with perhaps his favorite four-letter word -- PEST -- pasted across his helmet. For raw skill and firepower, it's tough to beat Atlanta gunners Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk, and they're all the more dangerous with Tkachuk around as their wide-bodied binky. The Rangers still have superstar Jaromir Jagr to lead the way. Now 35, he saw his production fall from 123 points last season to 96, but for the first time in his career, the Czech winger logged back-to-back full seasons (82 games). Neither side has a proven postseason goalie, but at least Blueshirt Henrik Lundqvist logged three games in last year's failed run. Finnish standout Kari Lehtonen is a first-time caller to the second season.
PREDICTION: Rangers in 6.

Ottawa (4) vs Pittsburg (5)

The Penguins enter as the postseason darlings, led by the wide-smiling Sidney Crosby, who at 19 became the first teenager to lead a major league in scoring (120 points). If only Sid the Kid could capture the American viewing public's imagination and truly turn the NHL into a major sports league, in terms of getting the Lower 50 to pay attention to the playoffs. Crosby's the show in Pittsburgh, without a doubt, but the Penguins also attack with two more of the game's best young faces -- Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal -- and back it with 22-year-old sensation Marc-Andre Fleury (the No. 1 pick in the '03 draft) in net. Nothing newer in the New NHL than the Penguins. The Senators, on the other hand, are the Cup champs in waiting . . . and waiting . . . and waiting. They've logged four seasons of 100-plus points, but they perennially have trouble after Game 82 on the schedule (one trip to the conference finals in five years). No one can match the attacking likes of Ottawa's Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson. And even with Zdeno Chara gone to Boston, the Senators have a formidable defense. But the question remains in net, where Martin Gerber, tendered a three-year deal worth $11 million to leave the Hurricanes, proved to be another goalie without the answer. Now it's up to 24-year-old Ray Emery, deemed not up to the job as understudy to Patrick Lalime and Dominik Hasek. If Emery is the answer, a first trip to the Cup finals could await. If not, GM John Muckler and coach Bryan Murray could be out of there.
PREDICTION: Senators in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit (1) vs. Calgary (8)

After seven straight seasons of 100 points or more, the Red Wings don't have much to prove. But they do have a couple of significant questions as they begin their quest for a fourth Cup in 10 seasons: 1. Is 42-year-old goalie Dominik Hasek still durable enough to backstop four playoff rounds? 2. Will top-scoring forward Pavel Datsyuk finally prove he can pot goals in planting weather? If the answer to both is yes, the Cup easily could be headed back to Hockeytown. Likewise, a no to either could spell first-round doom, which tells you how vital Messrs. Hasek and Datsyuk (three goals in 42 postseason games) are to the Winged Wheels. The Flames, also backed by an elite goalie in Miikka Kiprusoff, finally have an offense capable of throwing more than ice chips and dirty looks on net. Franchise centerpiece Jarome Iginla rang up 94 points, and the trio of Alex Tanguay, Kristian Huselius, and Daymond Langkow averaged just under 80. True offensive riches for a franchise long starved for scoring pop. Remember, they made it to the Cup finals in '04, scored only 14 goals in seven games, and lost to the Lightning. The X factor for the Wings could be aging power forward Todd Bertuzzi, who came aboard at the trade deadline and played the final eight games, going 2-2--4. Returnee Craig Conroy, brought back from the Kings, supplies extra pop for the Flames. Wings defenseman Chris Chelios, 45, enters his 22d postseason -- one more than Ray Bourque.
PREDICTION: Red Wings in 7.

Anaheim (2) vs. Minnesota (7)

No one can match the Ducks' twin defensive towers, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, and GM Brian Burke has a team that somehow thrives on flexing its muscle here in the game's new-age, peace-love-and-tolerance-above-all era. A lot of his guys even fight now and then, in fact. The Ducks made it to the Cup semis last year, ultimately KO'd by the Oilers, who then handed Pronger -- and maybe the Cup? -- to the Ducks when the big defenseman's wife said she couldn't abide Northern Alberta winters. The Wild won't trade punches with the Southern California brutes, but they'll be happy to trade rushes, something new for Friar Jacques Lemaire's Trappist Wonks. Minny added some scoring juice last summer, especially in Pavol Demitra, and now the Wild just don't stand and do something (trap, trap, and trap some more), they go out and make something happen. The Ducks have a couple of ex-Bruins in key roles: top checking forward Sami Pahlsson (the likely Selke winner as best defensive forward) and Sean O'Donnell, who was a plus-8 in 16 postseason games in '06. Likewise, Minny wrings plenty out of ex-Bruins Wes Walz, who is among its best shutdown forwards and faceoff guys, and high-scoring Brian Rolston, who finished with 64 points and 305 shots. Jean-Sebastien Giguere keeps the Ducks' net nailed shut. Niklas Backstrom snatched the Wild job in net while Manny Fernandez healed from a knee injury.
PREDICTION: Ducks in 5.

Vancouver (3) vs. Dallas (6)

These are two clubs with elite goaltending, and two clubs that often look in need of Mapquest just to find the other net, never mind put something into it. Young Canucks GM Dave Nonis pulled off one of the all-time trades last June, on the eve of the draft, when he acquired franchise stopper Roberto Luongo from the Panthers. Luongo is guaranteed a top-three finish in the Hart voting, and could win it. Superstopper Marty Turco, with even less offensive help than Luongo has in Vancouver, backed the Stars to 107 points -- all the more amazing in that defensive demon Jere Lehtinen's 26 led all Dallas goal scorers, and Montreal castoff Mike Ribeiro led in points (59). Without a doubt, the sharper netminder wins this series, and the same goalie will determine what happens going forward. After 82 games, these offenses aren't about to pop now. Highly skilled Mike Modano, who remains the face of the Stars franchise, passed Joe Mullen on the all-time made-in-America scoring list. If there is a surprise waiting in the Dallas attack, it could be Ladislav Nagy, picked up late from the Coyotes. The Canucks, whose offensive fade was reflected in the continuing frustration of Markus Naslund, saw Kevin Bieksa emerge as a potential franchise blue liner. The only true relief from the paucity of playmaking in this series will come whenever the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, take the ice for Vancouver. After six seasons, they're the real wheels.
PREDICTION: Canucks in 5.

Nashville (4) vs. San Jose (5)

Tune Town has qualified for the playoffs three straight seasons and finally may have enough goal scorers to make more than a one-and-done showing. In their two previous visits, both first-round knockouts, the Predators totaled only 19 goals across 11 games. If Peter Forsberg, acquired down the stretch from Philadelphia, can remain healthy, the Predators have enough scoring depth, grit, and goaltending (take your pick: Chris Mason, 24 wins, or Tomas Vokoun, 27 wins) to bring a third straight Cup to the South (following in the footsteps of Tampa Bay and Carolina). The Sharks, meanwhile, have Joe Thornton poised to prove he can be a postseason force. Jumbo Joe never became that in Boston, in part leading to his exile from the Hub of Hockey, and he came up short again last spring (2-7--9 in 11 games) when the Sharks looked toothless in Round 2, scoring only 12 times in a six-game set with the Oilers. Thornton had 7 points in San Jose's four games against Nashville in the regular season. To help Thornton get the job done, GM Doug Wilson picked up fellow ex-Bostonian Bill Guerin at the trade deadline. He also added some juice on the blue line by acquiring Craig Rivet from the Canadiens. Sharks netminder Evgeni Nabokov was a workhorse down the stretch with Vesa Toskala sidelined. No matter who is in net, the puckstopping is formidable on both sides. Time for the best players to be the best players. Sound familiar?
PREDICTION: Predators in 7.