What would the following stat line be worth?
OK, so it’s less accurate than predicting the weather for next July 22, but those are the PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) digits that Baseball Prospectus has come up with for one J.D. Drew of the Red Sox. Not exactly eye-popping for a guy just signed to a $70 million deal, but then again, he is a “complementary” player.
“Now, the news isn’t all bad,” writes Nate Silver. “Drew’s strong OBP, doubles power, and reasonable defense make him a valuable player, even if he’s a long shot to appear in 150 contests. His MORP (Marginal Value Above Replacement Player) works out to about $10.5 million for 2007, given current market trends. But on account of his checkered health history, it declines quickly from there. This contract is, in its own way, just as problematic as some of the deals for slugging-heavy outfielders that were signed in November.”