NFL playoffs betting

Indianapolis (-1) over SAN DIEGO: San Diego wound up the season with four wins — none against a playoff team — to finish at 8-8 and, because of Denver’s incompetence, capture the AFC West. Congrats! San Diego does its share of scoring but is also prone to giving up big chunks of yards through the air. It allows the second-most passing yards in the NFL (247 yards per game), which sounds like bad news against a team quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Manning has not had his best year, but he can still sling it. After beginning the season 3-4, the Colts finished with nine straight victories, including a macho win at Pittsburgh. A key for Indianapolis is running back Joseph Addai, a difference-maker if he’s on, who has been babied since he returned from a shoulder injury. The Colts can’t rely on backup runner Dominic Rhodes to carry them through the playoffs. Perhaps San Diego is for real, but I’ve yet to be convinced, and something about a Norv Turner-coached team in the playoffs has me leaning in the opposite direction.

Baltimore (-3) over MIAMI: Both squads deserved trips to the postseason, but this is the end of the line for the Dolphins. Watching them try to score on Baltimore, no matter how much of their offense is run out of the wildcat, is going to be painful. And if it hurts to watch, imagine being Chad Pennington, Ricky Williams, and Ronnie Brown. Hopefully there’s plenty of ice in the tub. Baltimore’s defense is no joke, and I’ll lay the points on the road against an offense that has been efficient and opportunistic, yet underwhelming. Miami barely scrapes out 21 points per game and is a good-not-great 5-3 at home. The Dolphins have taken care of the ball — Pennington threw just seven interceptions — and their plus-17 turnover ratio is impressive (Baltimore’s is plus-13). The difference in this game will be Baltimore’s underrated ground attack, ranked fourth in the NFL at 148 yards per game. Yes, Miami has won five in a row to close the season, but those five wins were by an average of five points. I’m much more impressed by another number — Baltimore’s 12-4 mark against the spread.

Atlanta (-2) over ARIZONA: It’s easy to fall for Arizona, which has a terrific offense (26.7 points per game, nearly 300 yards per game passing), and it’s always fun to watch Kurt Warner complete pass after pass. The Cardinals finished the season 9-7 to win the NFC West. Two wins apiece against below-average divisional foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Seattle got Arizona to six wins, and home victories over Miami, Buffalo, and Dallas accounted for nine. That’s one win (Miami) against a playoff team, and that came in Week 2, before Miami established itself. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they’re hosting this game, which causes me to pause, but I can’t take the two points knowing how soft those nine wins were. Meanwhile, Atlanta emerged with an 11-5 record from the bruising NFC South. No team in that division (Carolina, Tampa Bay, New Orleans) finished below .500, and the Falcons went a respectable 3-3 in their division. More important, Atlanta — behind rookie quarterback Matt Ryan — finished 4-4 in road games, including nice wins at San Diego and at Minnesota. I’m laying the two points.

MINNESOTA (+3) over Philadelphia: Finally, a home team I can believe in — and it’s getting points. Philly is the conventional pick here, especially after it steamrolled Dallas in the season finale. The Eagles were impressive in crushing the Cowboys, not allowing a touchdown and forcing turnover after turnover. But I can’t bring myself to hop on the Philadelphia bandwagon because I keep thinking back to the week before, when the Eagles needed a win, went on the road to face left-for-dead Washington, and came away with a 10-6 loss. That was just two weeks ago, but suddenly the Eagles are regarded by some “experts” as the hottest team in football. I foolishly believed going in that Dallas would pull out a must-win game over the Eagles. Little did I know that Hurricane Ego had completely enveloped the Cowboys. But I’ve now seen the light. It’s bursting through the line toward the end zone, and the light’s name is Adrian Peterson. The Vikings’ star running back does have a tough matchup against Philly’s fourth-ranked defense, but when he’s at home, on his own turf, I’m not betting against him.